Russia and the CIS News Digest
Russian Analyst Sees LaRouche as Pivotal Figure
One of the most striking post-election analyses, published in Russia, was a commentary by Boris Mezhuyev, carried Nov. 12 on APN.ru (Political News Agency, a project of the National Strategy Institute). Mezhuyev is a political analyst, associated with Kosmopolis magazine. Under the headline, "Paranoia, or the Voice of the Moral Majority?", he went looking for the missing "normal left-conservative" factor in American politics, and found itin Lyndon LaRouche.
Mezhuyev noted exit poll reports, which indicated that the "hypothetical average voter" in the USA was against abortion/homosexual marriage/de-Christianization of society, but in favor of changes in economic policy, making him "more likely to support the moderately protectionist and socially oriented line of Kerry, than the free-market orthodoxy of the Republicans, with their abiding belief in the 'invisible hand' of globalization." In Mezhuyev's view, these data indicate that American society is "healthier than its political establishment." He derived "a portrait of a normal 'left-conservative' voter, who does not want to abandon his country's religious precepts, nor its power as a nation, but who sees no sense in imperial projects like the occupation of Iraq, which never threatened the USA, and who believes that the government ought to implement an economic policy in the interest of the country's inhabitants, and not only the business elite...."
The U.S. two-party system, Mezhuyev noted, seems unable to offer the voter anything corresponding to these values, in a single package. He commented that Russia suffers from the same problem, as evidenced by the virtual expulsion of Sergei Glazyev (who would represent such a combination) from the political system.
If "left-conservatism" has been marginalized in Russia, wrote Mezhuyev, "in America it is virtually absent from the respectable political spectrum." In the USA, he said, the "left-conservatives" are not marginal figures, but "marginals squared""representatives of a movement that orthodox conservative circles call 'one of the strangest in American history.' And no less strange, is the fact that the leader of this movement, the millionaire [sic] Lyndon LaRouche, has become enormously popular among left-patriotic circles in our own country." Mezhuyev cited the monthly Russky Predprinimatel, for having described LaRouche as a "Titan thinker," whereas Americans surveyed by Mezhuyev about LaRouche, said that he was crazy.
Mezhuyev then gave a fairly accurate synopsis of some highlights of LaRouche's intervention into American politics, from the 1969 Columbia University strike, through to LaRouche's emergence as a defender of "the American System." That means, explained Mezhuyev, "a statist, dirigist model in the spirit of President Roosevelt's New Deal." Mezhuyev continued, "In the economist's opinion, the philosophical underpinnings of this system are provided by Christian neo-platonism and, in particular, the philosophy of G. Leibniz, while the cultural basis is to be found in Classical music and Renaissance art. Opposed to this 'state-oriented' model is a different one, the 'liberal-oligarchical,' which is rooted in British economic liberalism and the philosophy of T[homas] Hobbes, which is to blame for all the sins of the modern era, colonial slavery first and foremost."
LaRouche is categorically against an American empire, which differentiates him from the neo-cons, wrote Mezhuyev. He noted (as "conspirological") LaRouche's accusations against neo-con leader Dick Cheney, as a follower of the Synarchist International, inspired by Karl Schmitt and Leo Strauss, and provided a link to the "Sounding the Certain Trumpet" Nov. 6 message, on the larouchepac.com website.
Should all of this be regarded as brilliant analysis, or raving?asked Mezhuyev. "The figure of LaRouche is enigmatic," he concluded. But the most interesting question for Mezhuyev is why LaRouche is the person who most expresses what he calls "left-conservatism," which seems to be most consonant with the desires of the population.
China, Russia To Hold Joint Military Exercises
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov made a mid-December four-day visit to Beijing, for discussions with his Chinese counterpart Cao Gangchuan, as well as with Chinese President Hu Jintao and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Guo Boxiong. They agreed to told the first-ever joint Chinese-Russian military exercises, on Chinese territory, during 2005.
Hu Jintao said that China and Russia have the same task, to maintain peace, stability, and development, and their military cooperation is in the fundamental interests of the people of every nation in the region. The two nations will expand bilateral strategic coordination, and expand military cooperation within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Hu said.
Ivanov said that Russia is "fully confident" of the future development of Chinese-Russian relations. Relations between the two armies are an important part of the partnership, he acknowledged, adding that Russia is willing to work with China to promote this relationship and to maintain peace and stability in the region and the world at large.
At the two defense ministers' press conference, Cao Gangchuan said that: "Friendly relations between our Armed Forces are not aimed against third countries. We maintain these relations with a sole purpose of mutual development of our military potentials and to preserve stability in the region.... Both countries believe that military cooperation is an important aspect of our relations and we will continue developing this cooperation in the future according to instructions provided by the leaders of our nations.... Our armies are strong. They are great world-class armies. We can learn from our mutual experience through joint military exercises."
Russian Youth Decimated, Population Plummets
Two new demographic reports from Russia have come out, both of which provide chilling confirmation of the disastrous health and mortality processes going on among its citizens.
In a report on an early-November conference on "The Past and Present of the Population in Russia," held in Moscow, RFE/RL Newsline notes that the population of Russia fell by another 504,000 in the first eight months of 2004, a rate equivalent to "two villages disappearing per day." Unlike in the 1990s, the so-called natural decline of the population (excess of deaths over births) is no longer offset by immigration from other former Soviet republics. Izvestia's coverage of the event, published Nov. 9, noted that one-third of the net decline during 2004 is accounted for by net decline of the working-age population, "a pattern unprecedented in industrialized countries during peace time."
The other report is a UNICEF study, written up in the Moscow Times of Dec. 8, on the astounding death rate among Russian male teenagers (ages 15-19). Of all the young men in that age bracket, one out of every 30 dies in a given year, which UNICEF attributes to "accidents, poisoning, suicide and violence." (The spread of narcotics is evidently not mentioned.) For female teenagers, the rate is one out of 120, for a combined rate of one out of 99the highest death rate in this age-bracket, among 27 Eastern European and CIS countries in the survey. Russia also led in teen suicides, at 45 per 100,000 each year, and teen homicides, where the Russian rate is 20 times greater than in Western Europe.
Eagerness in Russia, for LaRouche's Views on Ukraine
The International lead article in the Dec. 10 EIR, "Flattened by IMF, Ukraine in Geopolitical Crosshairs," was translated into Russian and posted Dec. 8 on InoSMI.ru, a widely read site providing up-to-the-minute translations from major international media. (InoSMI is an acronym for "Foreign Mass Media.") The accompanying box "Stop Brzezinski's Meddling in Ukraine," which showcased Lyndon LaRouche's direct statement, was not included by InoSMI.ru, but it has been translated into Russian and sent out as a press release by EIR. InoSMI.ru's translation was reprinted and cited in the Russian and Ukrainian media, including in commentaries on Golos Rossii (Voice of Russia) radio, and the Ukrainian news and analysis web site, www.from-ua.com.
Yanukovych Issues Threats, as Ukrainian Run-off Nears
With little time remaining before the Dec. 26 re-vote in Ukraine's Presidential election, Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych who says he was betrayed by President Leonid Kuchma after the first vote, has issued a series of vaguely threatening statements. In an interview with Western press, reported in the Washington Post Dec. 17, and circulated in Russia and Ukraine by InoSMI.ru, Yanukovych said that even if the new vote were to be certified as a victory for Yushchenko, neither he nor his supporters would recognize that victory. "Even if Mr. Yushchenko wins," said Yanukovych, "he will never be President of Ukraine. The people who voted for me will never recognize him. If this nihilism continues, I will not be able to stop people. It is impossible to agree with this great injustice."
Other wire reports note that, during the Dec. 16 discussion, Yanukovych warned that "a real danger exists that after Dec. 26, Ukraine may be on the brink of a full-scale crisis." The day before, in Kherson, and while campaigning in Mykolaiv and Sevastopol, he talked about his supporters challenging Yushchenko's for control of the streets, adding, "As far as I understand, this process cannot be stopped. I hope that it's peaceful."
On Dec. 16, opposition candidate Victor Yushchenko attacked such statements about Yanukovych's people coming to Kiev, as "unconstructive," according to Interfax. Yushchenko accused him of trying to "destabilize civil peace and the political situation in Ukraine," and said that the Premier should "calm down" and "accept his fate." But on Dec. 17, Yanukovych followed up with a statement addressed to the international community, in which Strana.ru reports that he said that "the current situation ... is not a confrontation between the opposition and the authorities, but a crisis that will determine the future of Ukraine." He said that Yushchenko and the foreign press were wrongly portraying Ukraine's choice as between Europe and Russia, a view that "absolutely distorts reality," according to Yanukovych, who said that as Premier and Presidential candidate, "I never cast doubt upon Ukraine's choice of Europe." Unless a pathway of compromise is chosen, he said, Ukraine is threatened not with fragmentation into two parts, "but, in reality, there could be many more parts than that, and, by the domino theory, this will cause a complete redrawing of the maps of both Europe and Russia."
In the Post's summary of his remarks, Yanukovych attacked Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying that he wished Putin had not mentioned him favorably, when the Russian leader visited Ukraine before the election. "It rather worked against me," he said.
Abkhazian Election Unsnarled, Relations With Tbilisi Not
Businessman Sergei Bagapsh and former Prime Minister Raul Khajimba, rival candidates in last fall's inconclusive Presidential election in Abkhazia (autonomous region within Georgia, with close ties to Russia), agreed Dec. 6 to hold a new vote in January. The two candidates may run on the same ticket, as President and Vice President. The agreement followed soon after Georgian President Michael Saakashvili had come out on Dec. 3, endorsing Bagapsh's claim to victory and offering a process of dialogue between the central government in Tbilisi, and Abkhazia. Bagapsh promptly rejected Saakashvili's overture as "a provocation," and intensified his discussions with Khajimba. Russian emissaries have been visiting Abkhazia regularly, throughout the crisis, despite being denounced by Saakashvili for interference.
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