In this issue:

Though Gravely Ill, Arafat Hopes for New U.S. Peace Policy

The Iraq War Is Lost

Elite British Forces Killed in Iraq

Bush/Cheney II: War on Iran?

EU Wants Compromise, Not War, with Iran

From Volume 3, Issue Number 45 of EIR Online, Published Nov. 9, 2004
Southwest Asia News Digest

Though Gravely Ill, Arafat Hopes for New U.S. Peace Policy

November 5 was the anniversary of the 1995 assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin—the "partner in peace" to Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, who now lies critically ill in the Paris hospital to which he was brought Oct. 29, by the official intervention of French President Jacques Chirac.

Ironically, current Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's life is threatened by the same radical Jewish fanatics who killed Rabin. But these settler fanatics have grown in number, as a result of their alliance with the Christian Zionist fundamentalist backers of George Bush. In 1995, Sharon was one of the godfathers of the settler fanatics who helped Yigal Amir kill Rabin; today he is their target. And, ironically, Arafat's weakened condition has not helped Sharon.

Throughout the past week of his critical illness, Arafat has continued to think strategically, and speak as the elected head of the Palestinian people he is. He was following the U.S. elections closely, and hoping for a new policy of peace for West Asia, said Leila Shahid, the Palestinian Ambassador to France, on Nov. 3.

"I think that, like all Palestinians, he is waiting to see what President Bush is going to do to revert to a policy of peace rather than a policy of war," Shahid said. "I am worried because President Bush has for four years been in charge of the American Administration that has conducted a policy of war more than a policy of peace, and which decided to put the peace process in the freezer for the last four years. What worries me is that in this second term, the desire to see a new American President, a new government continuing the peace process, is not being fulfilled."

In the last few days, only Arafat's closest advisers have been permitted to see him, including Palestinian UN Ambassador Al Kidwa, his bureau chief Ramzi Khouri, and Shahid, as well as his wife Suha. But he had been visited by President Chirac, and had communicated by telephone to the Palestinian National Authority leadership in Ramallah, including Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia and former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, who was brought into Arafat's cabinet last month.

There is no question that Arafat's illness and possible death, is an unprecedented crisis for the PNA, but it is also a crisis for Arafat's self-avowed enemies, Ariel Sharon and George W. Bush. Throughout his first term, Bush was following the blueprint for regional war that had been prepared back in 1996 by the neoconservative warmongers now in his Administration. Put together originally for Israeli fascist Benjamin Netanyahu, "Clean Break: A New Strategy for the Realm," called for overthrowing Arafat, and opposing the Oslo Peace Accords between Israel and Palestine.

Without Arafat, these two allies, Ariel the war-horse and George W. the chickenhawk, would lose the excuse—Arafat—they have used since 2001 to block implementation of Oslo and the peace talks.

Most serious for Sharon, Oslo means withdrawal from the occupation of the Palestinian territories, and the closing of the illegal Jewish settlements. The faction of Jewish right-wing Bible fanatics will not allow this.

Thus, while some doom-sayers predict civil war in Palestine if Arafat dies, the Israeli peace movement leader, Uri Avnery of Gush Shalom, has predicted "civil war" in Israel among Jewish factions, triggered by the radical Jewish fundamentalist settlers who were involved in the 1995 Rabin assassination.

Many in the U.S. and Middle East had hoped that a Kerry victory in the U.S. elections, would ultimately force Sharon back to peace talks, especially after former President Bill Clinton joined the Kerry campaign.

But, even for Bush, the reality is that unless he can bring about a peace process, continued Mideast wars will bleed the U.S. dry, financially and militarily, as the threat of terrorism continues to grow, from a region embroiled in broader war and economic distress.

For their own survival, Bush and Sharon should seek the peace with the Palestinians that is advantageous to all sides. But it is unlikely that Arik and Dubya are capable of recognizing the suicidal danger they are creating.

This report is excerpted from an article by Michele Steinberg and Dean Andromidas in the Nov. 5 issue of New Federalist.

The Iraq War Is Lost

Speaking on a radio interview on Nov. 6, Lyndon LaRouche told interviewer Jack Stockwell in Salt Lake City, that Dick Cheney already has new wars in mind, but the Iraq war is being lost (see Latest from LaRouche, this issue, for complete transcript).

That same view reaches into the highest levels of government, including in the Bush Administration.

Most striking in that regard is the report of Secretary of State Colin Powell's assessment that the war has been "lost." Powell, who had originally argued against the proposed invasion, and who eventually and reluctantly caved in to the neocon pressure, is reported to have privately confided this to a close associate, according to the Nov. 8 issue of Newsweek.

The magazine notes that "throughout much of Iraq, but especially in the Sunni Triangle at the heart of the country, U.S. troops are unable to control the streets and highways, towns and cities.... Attacks on coalition and Iraqi forces are now in the range of 100 a day." The insurgents have managed to thoroughly infiltrate the Iraqi government forces, and their intelligence is very good. And the level of trust by Americans of the Iraqi National Guard and other security forces is so low that recruits aren't even allowed to leave their bases with weapons, a fact known to the insurgents, no doubt, when they massacred 50 Iraqi National Guard trainees on Oct. 23.

Newsweek also reports that, in the run-up to the expected assault on Fallujah, the U.S. military has declared the insurgency about dead on several occasions, only to see it grow stronger each time. That suggests that, despite the declarations by senior U.S. military officials, the assault on Fallujah may turn out differently than they hope.

On Nov. 5, it was reported that the long-threatened ground assault on Fallujah by the U.S. Marines was about to begin, even though the Marines were the victims of the most serious loss of American lives this past week when eight were killed by a car bomb.

Elite British Forces Killed in Iraq

Three British soldiers were killed and eight wounded, in central Iraq, in a double ambush outside their base, on Thursday, Nov. 4. The soldiers were from the British army's Black Watch regiment, 850 of whose soldiers were moved from Basra to Baghdad, last week, to support American operations in western Iraq. According to press pool reports, a patrol of two Warrior armored vehicles was hit by a combination car bomb and mortar attack, disabling one of the vehicles. An Iraqi interpreter was also reported killed. The British death toll in Iraq is now 70, with more than 10% coming from the British deployment last week in tandem with the U.S.

Bush/Cheney II: War on Iran?

Even as the situation grows more ominous in Iraq, the emboldened neocons, after the reelection of Bush, are making new noises about possible moves against Iran and its nuclear-weapons program.

On Oct. 31, the Iranian Parliament again affirmed the nation's desire to continue the uranium-enrichment program that has been the target of the Cheney crowd. But, in so doing, they stated that Iran intends to ensure that the International Atomic Energy Agency and member-states meet their commitments toward Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty signatory states.

The plan was already approved by the Iranian Parliament committees for national security and foreign policy, energy, health, education and research, and agriculture. Following the recent discussions on the issues brought up during Iran-European Union nuclear negotiations, and the EU's suggestion that Iran indefinitely suspend uranium enrichment and halt its nuclear fuel-cycle work, the MPs ratified the bill, and then shouted "Down with the U.S.A." and "Down with Israel," the two states they see as opposing Iran's program.

The U.S. has denounced the action as a provocation, stating its continued intention to seek sanctions through the United Nations. However, the neocons may choose to allow Israel, as a "breakaway ally," to launch a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, with or without sanctions.

On Nov. 5, Israeli military-security commentator Amir Oren spelled out, in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, the possibility of a strike against Iran by the U.S. and/or Israel is on the agenda now that Bush is reelected.

"Bush's reelection will spark American preparations for an operation, perhaps together with Israel, against Tehran's nuclear program," Oren wrote.

Oren reports that on Nov. 11, Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz will chair a meeting about Iran's nuclearization. And now that Bush has won, Oren writes, "the use of military force against Iran is looking more and more likely. The coming year will be one of confrontation. The Iranians will not yield, Bush will not give in, Israel will not remain outside the collision."

He then writes, "The Mossad is now so preoccupied with Iran that, according to an IDF major general, it has effectively become the "Institute for Intelligence and One Special Operation. Mossad director Meir Dagan has been given the mission to sabotage Iran's Shihab 3 missile program.

Nonetheless, Oren warns, any attack would cause Iran to deploy the Lebanese Hezbollah to shoot its Katyusha and Fajer rockets into northern Israel; he adds, "The IDF, however is not prepared for an Iranian countermove, that would set the northern front ablaze."

Furthermore, the super-hawks in the Israeli military are complacent about the problem. Oren adds that the current Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon's term ends in July 2005, which would most likely lead to his deputy, Air Force General Dan Halutz, another super-hawk, also known as "Bomber Halutz," for dropping a one-ton bomb in Gaza that killed a Hamas leader and 14 children, to replace him.

He concludes, "Get ready for a division of labor—an operation by one or more armies against Iran—and, in its course, for an Israeli operation, either in the form of an initiative or a response against Syria and Hezbollah ... in Washington-Jerusalem relations, the victory of the Republicans might engender a joint campaign, this time against Iran and its satellites. In November 2004, Israel is still not prepared for such a move."

EU Wants Compromise, Not War, with Iran

The European Union has proposed a lucrative trade pact to Iran in exchange for Iran's suspending its nuclear program, Agence France Presse reported Nov. 5, a proposal which is at odds with the United States.

Following their two-day EU summit, the Europeans did not call for a permanent halt to Iran's uranium-enrichment program as demanded by the U.S. They called on Iran to heed resolutions by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which will meet on Nov. 25 to decide whether to haul Tehran before the UN Security Council.

"A full and sustained suspension of all enrichment and reprocessing activities, on a voluntary basis, would open the door for talks on long-term cooperation offering mutual benefits," they said in written conclusions. EU officials and the Iranians were meeting in Paris, in what is seen as a last chance for Iran to avert the threat of UN-imposed sanctions.

At the same time, European leaders have signalled caution, particularly regarding any idea of attacking Iran. There are "clear indications" that the Iranian government wants to pursue dialogue with other parties on its nuclear issue, Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot, whose country holds the current EU presidency, told a press conference before the summit. "It is more helpful to continue the dialogue and to convince the Iranians that there are other means if you want to have a nuclear program," Bot said.

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