In this issue:

Russia Completes Construction of Iranian Nuclear Plant

Will Israel or U.S. Attack Iran's Nuclear Reactor Site?

Bush Pressured To Talk to Russia, Europe About Iran

Shi'ite Militia Turns in Weapons to Iraqi Interim Gov't

Iraqi Interim PM Threatens Falluja

As Violence Sweeps Iraq, President Moots Postponing Elections

German SW Asia Expert Sees Long-Term Chaos From U.S. Policy

From Volume 3, Issue Number 42 of EIR Online, Published Oct. 19, 2004
Southwest Asia News Digest

Russia Completes Construction of Iranian Nuclear Plant

Russia has completed the construction of the Iranian nuclear power plant at Bushehr, announced Iranian atomic energy head Golareza Agazadeh on Oct. 14. Energy production is expected to start in 2006. Iran has 80% of the technical materials needed to start the plant. Fuel is to come from Russia, according to an agreement to be signed soon, which calls for spent fuel to be re-sent to Russia. The head of Russia's atomic energy agency Rumyantsev, is to go to Iran in November, when the agreement is to be signed.

Will Israel or U.S. Attack Iran's Nuclear Reactor Site?

Israeli and U.S. intelligence sources have again warned EIR that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has told the Bush Administration in no uncertain terms that Israel will not allow Iran to bring its Bushehr nuclear power plant on line, and will launch a military strike, along the lines of the preventive war action taken against Iraq in 1980, against the Osirak nuclear reactor. Inside the U.S., the neo-conservative war-mongers also favor this action.

In August, immediately following the news of the FBI investigation of Pentagon analyst Larry Franklin for passing classified documents, including some policy papers on Iran, to the right-wing Jewish lobby group, AIPAC, Lyndon LaRouche noted that the news of the investigation was an important impediment to what was then being described as a near-term Israeli plan to launch the strike against Iran before the U.S. elections.

A well-informed Arab strategic analyst in Europe told EIR, however, that the neo-con/right-wing Israeli plan for military action against Iran is still the "preferred option" before the end of 2004.

Bush Pressured To Talk to Russia, Europe About Iran

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow was opposed to seeing Iran referred to the UN Security Council over its nuclear program, reported the Iranian news service IRNA, on Oct. 10. While visiting Iran, Lavrov warned such a step could be "counterproductive."

"To start thinking of any scenario which is not constructive to our point of view is premature and could be counter-productive," Lavrov said at a joint news conference with his Iranian counterpart Kamal Kharrazi in Tehran. "We will be expecting the cooperation between Iran and the IAEA to continue," added Lavrov, who was in Iran for two days.

Meanwhile, the Bush Administration announced on Oct. 11 that it would convoke a meeting of envoys from the G-8 countries, in Washington, for a discussion on Iran, specifically, on what approach to adopt on Iran's nuclear program.

Prior to this move, President Bush was coming under intense criticism, especially from Democratic Presidential challenger John Kerry over his reluctance to work with the European allies on Iran. Kerry's running mate John Edwards, had floated the proposal, that the U.S. could offer incentives to Iran (promising deliveries of nuclear fuel, for example), to get Iran to stop producing uranium. One Iranian negotiator, Hossein Musavian, head of the foreign policy committee at Iran's Supreme National Security Council, had said Iran would review the proposal, noting that he thought the proposal was interesting. This may have prompted the Bushites to present themselves now as ready to deal with Iran diplomatically.

For example, Colin Powell's #2, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, said that, "We hold the view that Iran needs to be brought to account, and we would like to move to the UN Security Council after the November (IAEA) board of governors' meeting.... But we're open to all ideas that people have, because one thing has become clear, and that is that we all share—the G-8 [Group of Eight]—the same end, the desire, and that is that Iran should be free of nuclear weapons and be transparent and let the international community have sufficient confidence that that is the case."

Diplomatic sources say that the European Union had agreed on Oct. 11 to prepare a package of "carrots and sticks" to get Iran to comply with demands by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to suspend its uranium enrichment activities—a process that can be used to make material for atomic bombs.

However, the Russian government, which was to participate in the Oct. 15 meeting on Iran, is saying "no" to the "stick" policy.

The EU ministers had urged Russia to join the initiative, but a source in Russia's Foreign Ministry said it was for the IAEA to investigate whether Iran was secretly developing nuclear arms. "I would not say it is appropriate to advocate the carrots-and-sticks approach," the source said. "[Russia's foreign] minister has confirmed our position, stressing that it is in Iran's interests to cooperate with the agency on all these questions. That is our position."

Shi'ite Militia Turns in Weapons to Iraqi Interim Gov't

Moqtada Sadr's Shi'ite militia began handing in a few weapons at the start of a deal with the Iraqi government to end months of violence in Sadr City, reported Agence France Presse on Oct. 11. It was the first day of a test agreement. Arab experts noted that these militiamen have numerous heavy weapons in their possession; thus, if one has 10 rocket-propelled grenades, and hands in three for cash payment, it receives payment, but retains most of the weapons.

About a dozen machine guns, 12 mortar rounds, 38 mortar launchers, and a sniper rifle were reportedly delivered to the al-Habibiya police station. The deal has had lukewarm endorsements by the U.S. military. U.S. battalion commander for Sadr City Lt. Col. Gary Volesky warned that his men reserved the right to carry out raids and arrests, despite the five-day test period for Sadr's men to relinquish heavy and medium weapons. "There has been no ceasefire agreement. The freedom of our movement has not been limited in any way. If we get the intel to support doing a search or raid on a target, we have that flexibility to do it," Volesky said.

Iraqi national security advisor Kassem Daoud hailed the agreement and said the government had more than $500 million to rebuild Sadr City, with $150 million coming directly from the Americans. Iraqi police and national guard will patrol Sadr City, and "the multinational force will intervene whenever is necessary," Daoud said.

Iraqi Interim PM Threatens Falluja

Interim Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi threatened a military assault on Falluja if the population does not surrender Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi. That Zarqawi is there is assumed by Allawi and the U.S., but not proven.

Reportedly boosted by joint U.S.-Iraq military operations against resistance strongholds, and the ongoing disarmament of al Sadr's militia in Baghdad, Allawi said on Oct. 13 that it was high time for Falluja to return to government control before elections in January. "We have asked Falluja residents to turn over Zarqawi and his group. If they don't do it, we are ready for major operations in Falluja," Allawi told Iraq's 100-member interim parliament.

It is curious that, just as talks between the government and a delegation of elders and leaders from Falluja seemed to be making progress, Allawi issued this provocation.

Meanwhile, bomb blasts inside the Green Zone in Baghdad killed 32 people on Oct. 14, and on Oct. 16, five more U.S. soldiers were killed in Iraq by car bombs. It is possible that October 2004 will develop to be the highest number of U.S. casualties since the war began.

As Violence Sweeps Iraq, President Moots Postponing Elections

In addition to the 32 Iraqis killed in Baghdad by suicide bombers Oct. 14, the following casualties were also reported in that single day:

* Two Iraqi army officers were shot dead as they drove through Baquba, northeast of the capital, according to police. Fifteen Iraqi national guardsmen were killed in an overnight attack in Qaim near the Syrian border, according to a police officer there.

In Baghdad, one U.S. soldier was killed and two wounded in an attack on the eastern side of the capital, the military said. Also in Baghdad, an investigative judge, and a woman journalist working for a Kurdish television station, were gunned down outside their homes in separate attacks, medics and the Interior Ministry said.

Elsewhere, four Iraqi National Guardsmen were wounded in a roadside bombing in the northern city of Mosul, an officer said, and one U.S. soldier was wounded in a roadside bomb attack in Hawija, west of Kirkuk, the U.S. military said.

The escalating violence is putting the elections in jeopardy, according to Interim President Ghazi al-Yawar. He said, in an interview published in Cairo, that the elections could be delayed if the security situation had not sufficiently improved. "We are deploying all our efforts to meet this deadline," he told the London-based Arab daily Asharq Al-Awsat. "But, if we judge that a ballot at this date—without security and conditions allowing free elections for all—will have a negative fallout on our country, then we will not hesitate to change the date," Yawar said.

German SW Asia Expert Sees Long-Term Chaos From U.S. Policy

Peter Scholl-Latour, the noted German expert on Southwest Asia, who has ties to intelligence circles, had a sober assessment of the region. Speaking at an Oct. 8 event at the annual Frankfurt Book Fair, where the Arab world was being honored, Scholl-Latour had the following to say:

The situation in Iraq is going from bad to worse, as the resistance grows, and Iraqi collaborators are becoming increasingly the main targets. The most serious mistake made by the U.S. was envoy Paul Bremer's order to disband the military. The military would have agreed to work with the U.S., at least in large part, once Saddam Hussein's regime had been toppled. The U.S. already had contacts with leading generals, and had advertised the fact. They could have organized essentially a military coup, but did not. The question is: Why not?

The situation in northern Iraq is particularly critical, given the ambitions of the Kurds for Kirkuk, and an independent Kurdistan. Turkey will have to intervene, if the Kurds attempt to realize these ambitions. The EU talks conducted with Turkey regarding its candidacy for EU membership are problematic, since the Europeans are pressuring Turkey to reduce the power and role of its military. The military is the main bastion of secularism in the country; if it is weakened, the trend towards Islamization, already visible, would increase.

On elections in Iraq: He said, if they occur, they will bring in massive votes for the Shi'ites. This is why most mainstream Shi'ite organizations (SCIRI, et al.) have refrained from active resistance. Scholl-Latour said he thought a Shi'ite victory would bring in an Islamic republic, but not the same type as in Iran. (EIR notes that this is not likely, however, considering that the highest Shi'ite authority, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is opposed to anything of the sort.)

Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is a man who worked in Saddam Hussein's intelligence services, then went over to the MI6, and the CIA. This is well known everywhere. He has reorganized the security services of Saddam Hussein, and is setting himself up as a "Saddam-lite." It won't fly, however.

Syria is under pressure from the U.S., and is undergoing internal tensions as well.

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