Russia and the CIS News Digest
Terrorists Strike Down Russian Airliners
For two days after the nearly simultaneous crashes of two Russian domestic flights on the night of Aug. 24, Minister of Transportation Igor Levitin, as chairman of the investigatory commission, said that all possible causes were being considered and that "human error and aircraft condition" were the most likely. With elections in Chechnya scheduled for Aug. 29, to choose a successor for assassinated President Akhmad Kadyrov, an early conclusion that "Chechen terrorists" had succeeded in downing the planes seemed undesirable in Moscow. From the outset, however, President Vladimir Putin assigned the Federal Security Service (FSB) to the investigation.
By Aug. 26, Presidential Representative for the Southern District, Vladimir Yakovlev, said the crashes were most likely terror attacks, and on Aug. 27 and 28 investigators confirmed finding residue of the explosive known in Russia as hexogen (also known as RDX and cyclonite), in the wreckage of both planes. They also said that on each plane, one female passenger bought a ticket shortly before take-off, used a Chechen last name, and has not been the subject of any family inquiries after the crashes; thus, the twin crashes are being treated as suicide bombings.
The Volga-Aviaexpress Tu-134 jet that crashed in Tula Province had taken off from Domodedovo Airport in Moscow, bound for Volgograd in southern Russia. The other flight was a Sibir Airline Tu-154 on the Moscow-Sochi route, originating from the same airport. It crashed near Rostov-on-Don. In each case, the pilots were able to press an alarm button, but had no time to say what was happening. Eighty-nine people died. Putin interrupted his working vacation, returning from Sochi to Moscow Aug. 25 to meet with security officials, and declared Aug. 26 a national day of mourning.
'Islambouli Brigade' Claims Responsibility
On Aug. 27, an organization called the Islambouli Brigade web-posted a claim of responsibility for the Russian plane crashes. The group is named after Khaled al-Islambouli, assassin of Egypt's President Anwar Sadat, and is now led by his brother, Mohammad Shawk al-Islambouli. In early August, the Brigade was implicated in an assassination attempt on Pakistan's then-Finance Minister and now Prime Minister, Shaukat Aziz. According to an Indian intelligence source, the same group was involved in the recent simultaneous bombings of the U.S. and Israeli embassies in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. An offshoot of the Egyptian Al Jihad Muslim brotherhood network, the Islambouli Brigade has evidently formed a strong working relationship with some groupings within the Chechen insurgency and with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), while also having a base in Pakistan. The IMU is active in most Central Asian countries.
According to the same source, the Islambouli group is not simply going after Russia because of Moscow's policy in Chechnya, but also alleges that Putin's Russia is accommodating the "Zionist-run United States" in Central Asia, to subjugate Muslims. The group is particularly anti-Israel.
Saakashvili Warns of War
Interviewed in the French newspaper Liberation Aug. 24, Georgian President Michael Saakashvili warned that Russia and Georgia were "very close to a war." The Russian Foreign Ministry responded with an official statement the next day, saying that while militant rhetoric is par for the course with the current Georgian leadership, Saakashvili's latest remarks showed "a complete absence of any sense of measure, bordering on irresponsibility by any measurewhether personal, or as a matter of state." In South Ossetia, a ceasefire has held since fighting between South Ossetian and Georgian forces, also involving Russian peacekeepers, on Aug. 19.
Azeri Analysts See U.S. Bases in Azerbaijan Soon
U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visited Baku a few days before Washington announced redeployment of U.S. troops based in Europe and Asia. This has led Azeri political analysts to conclude that the Azeri government will soon host U.S. troops, wrote Fariz Ismailzade in an Aug. 23 EurasiaNet article, though the Azerbaijani government remains coy on the question of bases.
Azeri media have seized on recent comments attributed to Gen. Charles Wald, deputy commander of U.S. troops in Europe, about Azerbaijan, Uganda and the island state of Sao Tome as potential host sites for U.S. rapid deployment forces. According to Azeri media reports, the United States would like a base in Azerbaijan to ensure the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and to monitor developments in Iran. From the Azeri viewpoint, the presence of U.S. troops in Azerbaijan would provide an increased political support for a Nagarno-Karabakh peace settlement with Armenia, to the Azeris' liking.
McCain Wants Belarusian President Ousted
During a visit to new NATO member Latvia on Aug. 21, U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz) met with members of the opposition from neighboring Belarus, RFE/RL Newsline reported. After the meeting, McCain was quoted in local media as saying that the U.S. Congress wanted to help the opposition "free Belarus from tyranny," by exerting "international pressure" to oust President Alexander Lukashenka, whom he accused of running a Soviet-style dictatorship. On Aug. 23, the Belarus Foreign Ministry denounced McCain for his "provocative and insulting language."
Also on Aug. 23, Lukashenka was in Sochi to meet with Russian President Putin, who said at their press conference, that the people of Belarus "should decide for themselves" who their leaders will be. Parliamentary elections will be held in October. Putin and Lukashenka discussed the draft constitution of the Russia-Belarus Union, and set 2006 as the target date for adoption of the Russian ruble as their joint currency.
Russia Grants Trade Preference to Ukraine, as Elections Near
"Vladimir Putin Supports Victor Yanukovych and Ukraine's budget," was Izvestia's headline on an Aug. 19 article about recent positive developments in Russian-Ukrainian political relations. Just before hosting Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma in Sochi on Aug. 21, President Putin signed a law to eliminate VAT on Russian fuel exports to Ukraine. The change is expected to save Ukraine $800 a year, and has been promoted as compensating Ukraine for losses it will sustain as a result of the enlargement of the European Union; Ukraine's bilateral preferential trade agreements with the three Baltic countries were cancelled when the latter joined the EU.
In Ukrainian domestic politics, the new Russian law is regarded as a success of the present government of Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych. He is running in October's Presidential elections as Kuchma's preferred successor. The other leading candidate, former Central Bank chief and Prime Minister Victor Yushchenko, advertised himself in an Aug. 24 Wall Street Journal op-ed as the candidate of "democratic values" and "the rule of law."
Russian Gov't Quarrels Over Economy Break Into Open
Mid-August Russian government sessions on monetary, budget, and growth targets for 2005 were tense and marked by open disputes. The Central Bank continues to submit more pessimistic prognoses for the rate of inflation, including on politically sensitive products like bread, than the government has offered.
As for the parameter of "GDP growth" (quite apart from the fact that it is axiomatically inadequate for measuring real economic growth or shrinkage), Minister of Economics German Gref and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin took the posture of "realists" at the Aug. 19 cabinet meeting, confronting Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov. Reviewing Gref's brief on what is to be done in 2005, Fradkov expressed the opinion that "more reserves could be mobilized to fulfill the President's task of doubling GDP." This seemingly calm assertion unleashed a heated debate. Gref stated that GDP growth will not exceed 6.7% in 2005. Kudrin allowed as how it might be raised to 7.5%, but only if the Prime Minister were to take personal responsibility for achieving this resultby moving to implement delayed "structural reforms" like the reorganization of Gazprom (the natural gas monopoly) and reform of residential utilities pricing, upwards. An angry Fradkov then rejoined that "in the practice of the government's work, rotation of key ministers is very useful."
Kudrin and Gref met with President Putin in Sochi on Aug. 21, to seek backing in these still unsettled disputes.
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