In this issue:

'Southwest Asia: The LaRouche Doctrine' Issued in Russian

Leader of Chechnya Akhmad Kadyrov Assassinated

Russian Defense Minister Visits Uzbekistan

Pattern of Intended Large Asset Transfers Emerges in Russia

From Volume 3, Issue Number 20 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published May 18, 2004
Russia and the CIS News Digest

'Southwest Asia: The LaRouche Doctrine' Issued in Russian

A Russian-language edition translation of Lyndon LaRouche's April 17 policy paper, "Southwest Asia: The LaRouche Doctrine," is now available on EIR's web site, at the address: www.larouchepub.com/russian/lar/040417_larouche_doctrine.html).

Leader of Chechnya Akhmad Kadyrov Assassinated

Akhmad Kadyrov, President of Chechnya in the Russian North Caucasus, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's close ally in attempts to stabilize the province, was killed by a bomb on May 9. Seven people died in the attack and dozens were injured. Kadyrov and other dignitaries were in the Dinamo Stadium in Grozny, for a Victory Day (World War II) celebration event, when a device estimated at 1 kg of TNT exploded under the VIP section of the stands. Two other devices, described as artillery shells, were discovered in the stadium later. Russian sources say the explosives may have been planted during recent construction work, but there were also indications in the days after the bombing, that somebody on the inside of Kadyrov's security detail was involved in their detonation.

Gen. Col. Valeri Baranov, commander of Russian troops in Chechnya and surrounding areas, was gravely wounded.

Putin personally announced Kadyrov's death, in a televised statement, which he made with Kadyrov's son, militia leader Ramzan Kadyrov, at his side. Chechen Prime Minister Sergei Abramov was named acting head of the region. Russian commentaries point out that Putin will now have to decide between holding elections within four months, as the law prescribes when a governor or regional president dies, or reimposing emergency rule from Moscow. Moscow has attempted to sustain a process of "normalization" in Chechnya, especially after the recent deaths of several key Chechen field commanders and their Afghansi collaborators. But field commander Shamil Basayev is still at large (as is "President" of the Chechen breakaway movement, Aslan Maskhadov), and the insurgents still have the capability to stage spectacular attacks like the one May 9.

Russian Defense Minister Visits Uzbekistan

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov travelled to Uzbekistan May 12 for talks with his Uzbek counterpart Kadyr Gulomov, on bilateral relations in military and military-technical cooperation, as well as regional security and international terrorism. Ivanov also met with President Islam Karimov and Foreign Minister Sadyk Safayev.

On the eve of Ivanov's arrival, Uzbekistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Economics Minister Rustam Azimov wrote in an article that Uzbekistan and Russia have developed the "understanding" to create an Agreement on Strategic Partnership. "People in Uzbekistan never forget that, historically, Russia has always been its major economic partner," Azimov wrote in the government paper People's Word.

Uzbekistan is the most populous nation of Central Asia. Russia's share of Uzbek foreign trade rose by 26% in 2003 and has already climbed another 43% in 2004. Russians are also increasing large-scale investment in Uzbekistan.

The Uzbek-Russian diplomacy is notable because Uzbekistan, although a participant in CIS defense organizations, has no Russian military presence, and, since 2002, has had the largest U.S. military presence in Central Asia. Uzbekistan recently expelled George Soros's Open Society organization from Tashkent, following the role Soros's operations played in the overthrow of the goverment in Georgia. The U.S. State Department condemned the Tashkent move against Soros.

Pattern of Intended Large Asset Transfers Emerges in Russia

In April and the first two weeks of May, some enormous wealth transfers were initiated, or rumored, in Russia. The moves by executives of TNK oil company and Norilsk Nickel followed Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin's announcement of "new rules" of behavior for Russia's top companies and their CEOs, known as the oligarchs: pay all taxes, contribute to charity, and stay out of politics. While the specific attempted or rumored transfers may be occurring in anticipation of a crackdown by the new Russian government, it is also noteworthy that they involve large raw materials-associated real assets, which are of global significance in the current unstable world financial system. In the context of these events, Moscow's RTS stock index has fallen over 20% since early April.

* On April 16, Yukos Oil received a bill from the tax ministry for 99.4 billion rubles (over $3 billion) in back taxes, due immediately. With Yukos unable to pay, the government obtained a court order to freeze its assets that same day. In early May, the government sought permission to search Yukos offices in London, as has already been done in Switzerland and throughout Russia. On May 5, Kudrin told Kommersant that the tax claims on Yukos were "only the beginning" of the government's case against the company. Former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky remains in jail, while other executives have fled the country.

* On April 29, stock shares of Norilsk Nickel fell 10%, as rumors swept Moscow that its owner, Vladimir Potanin, had been interrogated or arrested. Norilsk, located in Russia's far North, is a world-scale leader in nickel and platinum group metals mining. Earlier in April, commodities analyst John Helmer had reported moves by Potanin to sell out his stake in Norilsk (possibly to a foreign buyer) and purchase a South Africa gold mine, thus taking a large chunk of money out of the country and surrendering a major national asset to foreign control. Since the April 29 rumors, Potanin has dropped out of sight and may have left Russia. He is said by Interros, the holding company for Norilsk, to be travelling on business.

* The BP-TNK merger, finalized last year and touted as pioneering direct investment by foreign majors in the Russian oil industry, has been presented with radical demands by the Russian partners. According to reports in the Russian media and the London Observer, Alfa Group executives Mikhail Fridman, Viktor Vekselberg and Len Blavatnik are pushing to be paid ahead of schedule for their 50% stake in TNK. They were supposed to receive $3.75 billion over three years, in the form of British Petroleum stock. Now, the reports say, they want full payment immediately, and in cash. "Lord Browne, the BP chief executive, could be forgiven for having palpitations," wrote the Observer on May 9.

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