In this issue:

Indian Elections Results a Stunning Surprise

China Wants Continued Friendly Relations with India

Powell Confident that Thailand Can Resolve Violence

Poppy Cultivation Flourishes in Pakistan Once Again

Malaysia Seeks Better Relations with China

Lhasa-Kolkata Road Railway Link-Up?

High-Level Military Talks Begin Between North and South Korea

Opposition Presidential Candidate May Yet Win Philippines Election

South Korean MPs Debate Cancelling Troops to Iraq

From Volume 3, Issue Number 20 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published May 18, 2004
Asia News Digest

Indian Elections Results a Stunning Surprise

Although it was expected that the BJP-led coalition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would fall short of an absolute majority, the results of the Indian elections May 12 indicate that the NDA was routed in a number of key states. The shortfall became huge and the Congress party-led pre-poll alliance won significantly more seats than the NDA. It is almost a certainty that the Congress-led alliance, backed by almost 60 members of the various communist parties, would provide an absolute majority and a government would be formed along that line.

The routing of the NDA can be attributed briefly to three reasons. First is the mistake of the NDA in projecting Indian economy was doing well. While the NDA did succeed in providing some jobs to the skilled urban population, its overall performance in developing the economy was considered poor by the people.

The second reason was that the turn-out was extremely poor. This suggests a large section of the population was not sure which way to vote and sat this one out. This election evidenced the least interest since 1967, observers pointed out.

Finally, the incumbency factor in the southern state of the NDA coalition partners hurt the alliance badly. In the two large states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, the NDA was wiped out by the Congress and its allies. In Karnataka, which is also an economic success story and had remained under the Congress rule for years, incumbency was a factor, and the BJP gained significantly there.

China Wants Continued Friendly Relations with India

China wants to continue to expand its friendly relations with India, the Chinese Foreign Office announced on May 13 in Beijing. One of the biggest achievements of the former government in India was the breakthrough in relations with China, the Press Trust of India reported May 13.

"No matter who takes office, I hope China-India relations will continue to enjoy further development," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Liu Jianchao said.

"The election in India is an internal affair of the Indian people. I will not comment on that," Liu said to PTI. "However, I know that the Indian government and Indian people, and the Chinese government and people share the common spirit for furthering the relations between our two great countries—India and China."

Powell Confident that Thailand Can Resolve Violence

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said he is confident of Thailand's ability to resolve the recent violence in its southern states, in an interviewed with AFP May 8. The message of support is a significant boost, following the April 26 violence in which 108 Muslims were killed. Powell underscored that Thailand was a valued friend and close ally of the United States.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra visited the southern region on May 7, staying overnight in the area of the conflict, and visiting the 400-year old Krue Se mosque where 32 of the attackers took shelter and were killed.

The UN's top human rights official Bertrand Ramcharan and human rights groups have called for an immediate investigation, and Thailand has set up an independent committee to investigate whether security forces used excessive force against militants inside the Krue Se mosque.

Poppy Cultivation Flourishes in Pakistan Once Again

Opium poppy cultivation which had been virtually eliminated in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP) bordering Afghanistan, has returned in force since the six-party religious coalition, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), took control of the province's government last year, the Daily Times reported May 12.

At a conference held at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on May 11, Marvin Weinbaum of the Middle East Institute pointed out that "poppy fields in NWFP are looking very colorful." The conference heard disturbing accounts of widespread resumption of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, as well as in Pakistan. Weinbaum insisted that attention should be paid once more in Pakistan since the current international price of opium is high enough to act as an incentive to growers, not only in Afghanistan where the farmers are very poor, but also in Pakistan. "It is time to revisit Pakistan," said Weinbaum.

Malaysia Seeks Better Relations with China

Malacca, the old capital of Malaysia, sponsored a symposium on the theme of "Peace and Unity for the World," at Malacca International Trade Center on May 11, the Malaysia Star reported. Malacca was the center of early ties with China, beginning with the visit of the famous Chinese Admiral Zheng He 600 years ago. Relations between China and Malacca were a model of friendship that comes with mutual understanding, Chief Minister Mohammad Ali Rustam told the symposium on Malaysia-China-Malacca ties.

The event was held in conjunction with the 600th anniversary of Zheng He's expedition to Malacca, and the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and Malaysia.

Present were the organizing chairman of the symposium, Prof Dr. Mohammad Yusoff Hashim, Federation of Chinese Association's Malaysia president Lim Gait Tong, and Malacca Chinese Assembly Hall president, Tee Eng Tuan. Prof. Dr. Khoo Khay Kim delivered an address on the past and future ties between the two countries.

Lhasa-Kolkata Road Railway Link-Up?

The Chinese recognition of Sikkim as integral part of India in early May has changed the geopolitics of the Himalayas signficantly. The rivalry and animosity that had kept these two huge nations apart for almost four decades are slowly giving way to cooperation for mutual national interests.

The Hindu analyst C. Raja Mohan, who maintains very close association with the Indian External Affairs Ministry, pointed out in a May 9 op-ed in The Hindu that China's recognition of Sikkim in the new official map, after 29 years, and the Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee's categorical statement in Beijing last June that India recognizes Tibet as a part of China, has opened up new possibilities. One such possibility is to revive the dying port of Kolkata (formerly Calcutta) by making it the port of Tibet. He rightly pointed out that transporting goods to and from Tibet from China's east coast is a long journey, adding that the year 2007 would be a reasonable objective for completing the road from Kolkata to Nathu La, the mountain pass that connects Sikkim to Tibet. That is the same year that China would open a rail link from Tibet with the east coast. An upgraded road to Nathu La would make possible the two great geopolitical developments, says Raja Mohan.

One of these developments is the restoration of Kolkat as the closest seaport to Lhasa, while the second is to open up an overland connection between India and China's heartland. Raja Mohan says that it would be best for the next Indian government to take up this agenda.

High-Level Military Talks Begin Between North and South Korea

South Korea will attend unprecedented General-level military talks with North Korea on May 26, Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun said on May 13 in Seoul. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il intervened at the last minute in ministerial talks in Pyongyang last week to give the go-ahead for the Generals' talks, Jeong added. The North had sent the South a telegram on May 12 proposing the date, and Seoul accepted.

"The fact that we are holding these General-level talks shows that North-South relations have developed to a degree where there can no longer be a U-turn," Jeong said, referring to the North's initial refusal earlier to set a date. The defense ministers of the Koreas have met and so have lower military officers, such as during construction of rail and road links through the DMZ. But there never have been talks between Generals, the most-senior actual military officers. Jeong said he hoped the General-level talks would contribute to helping bring the almost non-existent inter-Korean military contacts up to the level of the increasingly growing economic and social exchanges between the two states.

Opposition Presidential Candidate May Yet Win Philippines Election

Despite headlines around the world reporting that Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo had won easily in the Nov. 10 election over challenger Ferdinand Poe—based on one exit poll—the official count which is slowly coming in continues to give Poe a small lead, according to the Philippine Enquirer May 13. Poe supporters held a peaceful demonstration in Makati (the financial district of Manila), protesting the widely reported vote fraud against opposition candidates. Arch-coup plotter Fidel Ramos declared that any opposition demonstrations would be tantamount to "incitement to sedition," while a spokesman for the President said that although Ramos was right, "we will try to observe maximum tolerance."

Ricardo Cardinal Vidal, who replaced the notorious Cardinal Sin as Archbishop, met with representatives of both Poe and a religious candidate, Brother Eddie Villanueva, who may get a significant single-digit vote to discuss accusation of vote fraud. Three Bishops had gone public before the election with reports that military forces had been instructed to remove names from the voting registers in opposition areas, especially in Mindanao.

Nonetheless, Poe is still a likely winner, although official counting may take weeks to conclude.

South Korean MPs Debate Cancelling Troops to Iraq

South Korean Rep. Chun Jung-bae, the powerful floor leader of President Roh's ruling Uri Party, said on May 12 that Korea could increase financial support for Iraq instead of sending its 3,000 troops, promised last February, but kept on an indefinite hold as the fighting in Iraq intensified. "We can consider making financial contributions to the reconstruction effort in Iraq instead of pushing ahead with the planned troop deployment," Chun told reporters at the party headquarters. Chun was just elected and was to take control of the ruling party in the new Uri-dominated National Assembly which opens on June 5, before which little can be clearly decided.

A group of lawmakers from the Uri Party led by Assemblyman Song Young Gil, and even members of the opposition Grand National Party, who previously endorsed the dispatch plan, have been back-tracking recently.

Kwon Young-ghil, chairman of the new left-wing Democratic Labor Party (DLP), which just went from zero to 10 seats in the Assembly, and emerged as the third force, also said on May 12 that he will redouble efforts to withdraw the dispatch plan. "I will soon arrange a meeting in which ruling and opposition lawmakers opposing the plan can sit together to think up ways to withdraw it," Kwon said. "We will make contact with these lawmakers individually through both formal and informal channels." Kwon praised Uri floor leader Chun, saying, "I hope he will be unyielding in his push for political reform."

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