Mideast News Digest
Shi'ites Reject Viceroy Bremer's Ban on Elections; Insurgency Continues
In the run-up to an important United Nations meeting on Jan. 19, the leading Shi'ite authority in Iraq, Ayatollah Al Sistani, has appealed to UN General Secretary Kofi Annan to intervene to organize elections in Iraq. This appeal is in direct opposition to the plan for "transition to Iraqi rule" hastily concocted by U.S. viceroy, Paul Bremer.
Reports are that Annan will try to convince the Ayatollah Al Sistani, who has significant support on the Iraqi Governing Council, that the demands for real elections before a government is formed, are not possible.
According to Al Watan in Saudi Arabia Jan. 10, Annan will send a special delegate to Al Sistani, to explain that elections would require a census of the population and the issuance of ID cards, or some form of voter registration, which would take too much time. The paper says that Annan wants to convince Al Sistani and his followers, therefore, to accept the deal worked out by Bremer and the IGC, for a transitional government. That Nov. 15 agreement calls for a legislature elected through caucuses in Iraq's 18 provinces and a handover of power by June 30. It is utterly illegal by international law.
Annan is to meet with Iraqi and coalition leaders to discuss Iraq 's future, on Jan. 19. He was to talk with U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte and British Ambassador Emyr Jones-Parry on Jan. 9 to lay the groundwork for the meeting with Iraq's Governing Council and the Coalition Provisional Authority to clarify the world body's role in postwar Iraq. "Everyone wants to see a successful transition to sovereignty in Iraq," Eckhard said. "We are maintaining an open mind while we listen to whatever the Brits and Americans put forward to us and we're also listening to what the Iraqis are saying."
And while this political turmoil continues, the military situation is even worse, evidenced by the Jan. 8 downing of a U.S. Black Hawk helicopter which killed nine U.S. soldiers, and mortar attack on a U.S. barracks, which killed one U.S. soldier and wounded 34.
Palestinians May Opt for 'Bi-National State'
In a Jan. 8 interview with Reuters, following meetings with top U.S. and UN officials, Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia warned that Palestinians may be forced to seek only a "bi-national" state, because of Israel's unilateral seizures of Palestinian land in building the apartheid wall, and complete failure to implement any provisions of the "Road Map."
The Palestine Press Center reported on Jan. 8 that Qureia told the officials that the UN and the Quartet are "standing deaf," as the Israelis implement their apartheid wall, carry out widespread killings of Palestinians, and seize Palestinian lands. Qureia called on UN envoy Terry Larsen to expedite the implementation of the UN Security Council decision adopting the Road Map as its policy.
Reuters has not made the full interview with Qureia available, but quotes him on the wall, "This is an apartheid solution to put the Palestinians in cantons. Who can accept this? We will go for a one-state solution. There's no other solution. We will not hesitate to defend the right of our people when we feel the very serious intention to destroy these rights." In earlier statements, Qureia said the wall is a way to "put Palestinians in cages like chickens."
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell rejected the idea of "one bi-national state" at his press briefing on Jan. 8, and said that the only solution that will work is "a two-state solution ... a state for the Palestinian people called Palestine, and a Jewish state, state of Israel."
Powell added, "I don't believe we can accept a situation that results in anything that one might characterize as apartheid or bantuism."
But, Powell fell back on the same old useless formulation, that the Palestinian Authority has to "wrest authority away from Arafat that will allow [Qureia] to start taking action with respect to terror and violence." This "end of Palestinian violence" is Sharon's "code" for stalling all peace talks.
Palestinian officials note that giving up on the two-state solution is a "last resort," but reflects the tremendous, growing lack of trust in the Road Map process.
The situation in the Occupied Territories has become one of daily multiple murders of young Palestinian men. The Egyptian publication Al Ahram Weekly reported on Jan. 8 that: On Jan. 1, outside Nablus, a 16-year-old boy was killed; a 13-year-old was badly wounded by the IDF in clashes over stone throwing incidents; on Jan. 3, the IDF killed five Palestinians, including two boys, 14 and 17; on Jan. 5, a 16-year-old youth was shot dead by IDF, and a 14-year-old wounded in Nablus, while they were attending the funeral of the three Palestinians killed earlier.
Associated Press on Jan. 6 quoted Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's comments on Sharon's Jan. 5 speech to the Likud Party. Arafat said, "Sharon does not want peace. He only wants to continue building settlements and the racist separation security fence ... around Jerusalem. What the Israelis are saying and doing is just to deceive the public by removing one caravan [for Jewish settlers] and putting 10 others in another place."
Radical Likudniks at the convention openly spoke of suggestions for "ethnic cleansing" of the Palestinians from all areas east of the Jordan River.
Mubarak Says No Automatic Succession to Presidency
President Hosni Mubarak announced that his son will not automatically succeed him in the Presidency, according to reports appearing in the Egyptian press Jan. 4. The comment surprised everyone, and opened a debate on why he chose to make such an announcement. The scenario being discussed in high-level circles in Cairo, is that Mubarak plans to orchestrate handing over power to his intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, through orderly elections, in which Mubarak would not run for re-election. Suleiman would then have Gamal Mubarak, the son, as his Vice President, and, in a short time, Gamal would be President.
One reason for this course of action might be that the same neo-cons in Washington who are calling for regime change in Syria, Iran, etc., are also pursuing it in Egypt. For example, neo-con chieftain, Richard Perle, a top Pentagon adviser, told an audience at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington on Jan. 9, that the U.S. should cut off the $2 billion in annual funding to the government of Egypt, which he called "a dictatorship."
A well-informed Cairo source told EIRNS that another reflection of heavy U.S. pressure on Mubarak, is seen in the Egypt's do-nothing posture in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Whereas traditionally, Egypt had upheld the Palestinian position, recently Cairo's stance has become: "We want the Palestinians and Israelis to sit down and negotiate," said this source, "as if negotiations per se were the solution." He summed it up: "Mubarak has moved very far away from his position."
Turkey, Syrian Leaders Call for Regional Peace
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad made a three-day visit to Turkey, beginning Jan. 5, the first such visit by a Syrian President to Ankara. He and Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer are emphasizing the importance of bringing peace to the Middle East as a whole. Assad addressed the official welcoming ceremony: "My visit comes at a time when Turkish-Syrian relations are reaching towards a peak, but our region is going through a bad period. We have moved together from an atmosphere of distrust to one of trust. We now have to change the atmosphere of instability in the region to one of stability."
President Sezer said their talks would focus on improving bilateral relations, but also regional issues, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iraq.
The two leaders oppose any moves by the Iraqi Kurds to break away from Iraq. Assad told CNN-Turk Jan. 5, "We are opposed, not only to a Kurdish state, but also to any action against the territorial integrity of Iraq. Iraq's future is bound to the future of all of us.... the break-up of Iraq would be a red line," not only for Syria and Turkey, but for all the countries in the region."
Sharon Under Internal Pressure To Talk to Syria
Senior Israeli military commentator Ze'ev Schiff, writing in the Jan. 7 Ha'aretz daily, said that while that both Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz refuse to respond to Syrian President Bashir Assad's overtures to reopen peace negotiations, "most senior officials in the security communityin intelligence, the Israeli Defense Forces, and the defense establishmentfeel that we must not reject the Syrian advances, even if they are no more than a tactical step."
The U.S. "has told Israel explicitly that it ought to check into the Syrian offer for negotiations," Schiff revealed, while stressing the U.S. has no intention of easing "its pressure on Damascus. He also reported that during the recent meeting between Syrian President Bashar Assad and Egyptian President Hosni Muburak, it was decided Mubarak, during his upcoming visit to Washington, will ask President George Bush to spearhead and sponsor negotiations between Israel and Syria.
On Jan. 7, Ha'aretz reported that the top leaders of Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) want Sharon to pursue Syria's overtures on peace negotiations. This is the position of Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon, his deputy, General Gabi Ashkenazi, the Head of Military Intelligence, General Aharon Ze'evi, and the outgoing director of the Army's Plans and Policy Directorate, General Giora Eiland, who is expected to be appointed as the head of the Israeli National Security Council.
Baring his fangs, Israeli Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also called for talks with Syriain the event U.S. pressure forces the issue. He said that Syria is a "despotic regime, which is trying to survive in the face of an historic wave that is removing such tyrants. They need peace with us like they need air to breathe. They need peace much more than we do. So the advantage has now moved completely to our side." He went on to say that Israel "must demand substantial concessions from Syria on the Golan Heights."
Assad: We Won't Scrap WMD Unless Israel Does
Syrian President Bashar Assad told London's Daily Telegraph on Jan. 6, that Syria will not give up weapons of mass destruction unless Israel does.
"We are a country which is [partly] occupied and from time to time we are exposed to Israeli aggression," Assad told the Telegraph. "It is natural for us to look for means to defend ourselves. It is not difficult to get most of these weapons anywhere in the world and they can be obtained at any time."
Assad said Libya's renouncing of its WMD was a "correct step" but added, in a reference to Israel, "Unless this applies to all countries, we are wasting our time." As reported in last week's EIW, in December, Syria introduced a UN Security Council resolution calling for Israel to abandon its nuclear weapons as part of a "nuclear-free" Middle East.
Rice: No Evidence that Syria Hides Iraq's WMD
Speaking at a White House press conference Jan. 9, National Security Advisor, Condoleeza Rice denied there was any evidence of Syria hiding Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Rice was responding to a reporter's question about statements covered in the British press alleging that Iraqi WMD were transferred to Syria.
"Any indication that something like that happened would be a very serious matter," Rice said. "But I want to be perfectly clear: We don't, at this point have any indications that I would consider credible and firm that that has taken place, but we will tie down every lead." She added, "I don't think we are at the point that we can make a judgment on this issue. There hasn't been any hard evidence that such a thing happened."
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