In this issue:

Mikhail Fradkov Becomes Prime Minister of Russia

Fradkov Promises To Streamline Government

Attempt To Oust Glazyev from Rodina Leadership

HIV/AIDS at Take-off Point in Russia, CIS

Russia, EU Seek Agreement on EU Expansion

Heritage Man Calls for Lukashenka To Get Soros/Georgia Treatment

From Volume 3, Issue Number 10 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Mar. 9, 2004
Russia and the CIS News Digest

Mikhail Fradkov Becomes Prime Minister of Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised all but his closest circle of advisers by naming Mikhail Fradkov, Russia's Ambassador to the European Union (holding the rank of Minister), to replace Mikhail Kasyanov as Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. Putin made the announcement March 1, saying that Fradkov fit the bill: "highly professional, an upstanding person with good experience of working in various areas of state service." At a cabinet meeting later that day, Putin noted that Fradkov "was Minister of Foreign Economic Ties at one time, so he worked in the economic section of the government; he was deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council, so he knows the 'force' agencies well; and, before departing for his overseas assignment in Brussels, he headed the Tax Police, so he has good experience in combatting corruption. He demonstrated in Brussels that he is a good, strong administrator and an upstanding person."

The Moscow press ran in circles to find a profile of Fradkov. The liberal daily Izvestia joined Communist Party leader Gennadi Zyuganov in trying to link him to the Alpha finance-industry group, because "he came to the Ministry of Foreign Economic Ties when it was headed by one of Alpha's leaders, Pyotr Aven" (which says next to nothing, as such overlap with Aven is also the case for the staunch opponent of Russia's "oligarchs," Sergei Glazyev). Others played up Fradkov's rumored "siloviki" (force agency people) and intelligence connections, citing various of his and his family's personal contacts. Many of the characterizations—"Neither a St. Petersburg man, nor a Chekist," "an economist, but not a liberal"—sounded for all the world like Nikolai Gogol's introduction of his famous character Chichikov, in Dead Souls: "a gentleman who was not handsome, but neither was he bad-looking; not too stout, but not terribly thin; not someone who could be called old, but neither was he exactly young."

Fradkov does have a very broad background, including in areas that intersect intelligence work. Now aged 53, he earned his first degree as an industrial engineer, then an economics doctorate from the Academy of Foreign Trade a decade later, in 1981. In the mid-1970s he was an economic counselor at the Soviet Embassy in India, after which he worked in the machinery exports section of GKES, the Soviet State Committee for Economic Ties, and at the Soviet Ministry of Foreign Economic Ties. In 1991-92, he represented Russia at GATT. In the fall of 1992, he was named Deputy Minister of Foreign Economic Ties, serving under Aven and then under Glazyev. (Presidential candidate Glazyev, after stating that Putin "has installed people in all key positions who will not take a step without his agreement," commented that he knows Fradkov from their work together, as "a good and upstanding person.")

After Glazyev quit the government in protest of President Boris Yeltsin's policies, Fradkov remained at the Ministry of Foreign Economic Ties, handling major business such as nuclear power deals in China and Russia's negotiations for contracts on the Three Gorges Dam, and headed it in 1997-98. Yeltsin chastised Fradkov on national television in November 1997 for lack of progress in CIS customs relations, but he kept his job. In 1999, he was Minister of Trade. In May 2000, he went to the Security Council. In May 2001, Fradkov was named director of the Federal Tax Police, then went to the Brussels assignment when the Tax Police was abolished in 2003.

Fradkov Promises To Streamline Government

The Russian State Duma voted on March 5, by 352 to 58, to confirm Mikhail Fradkov as Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. Addressing the Duma, Fradkov promised to streamline the Russian government, merging ministries and eliminating deputy premierships in order to improve the efficiency of strategic planning and responsibility for the implementation of policy. After the reorganization of the government, details of which are yet to be announced, Fradkov said his top priorities would include an in-depth analysis of the state of the real economy, including both the production of goods and the service sector, and measures to bolster science, R&D and personnel training throughout Russia.

Attempt To Oust Glazyev from Rodina Leadership

Sergei Glazyev was all but ousted March 4 from his position as leader of the Rodina parliamentary group, after his fellow Rodina founder Dmitri Rogozin circulated a paper ballot among Rodina parliamentarians, on which 22 of 38 voted to remove Glazyev. People's Will Party leader Sergei Baburin, who had backed Glazyev in last month's clash with Rogozin, joined the push to kick him out. The proposed rearrangement would make Rogozin head of the Rodina group, while Baburin replaced Rogozin as a deputy speaker of the Duma. Glazyev refused to recognize the leadership change as legitimate, and RIA Novosti reported he was still "formally" head of the Rodina group, pending a decision on March 16 by a Duma rules body. There were reports of a scuffle in the Duma building, between members of Glazyev's staff and two individuals who attempted to remove the name plate from his office door.

Glazyev said the developments were part of a plot against him, instigated from within the Kremlin staff. He also issued an open letter to President Putin, demanding that Putin act to uphold the Constitution against the electoral dirty tricks, which have already been aimed against Glazyev's and other candidacies, and against large-scale vote fraud, now being prepared. Glazyev continues to voice his expectation of winning as much as 20% of the vote in the March 14 Presidential election.

HIV/AIDS at Take-off Point in Russia, CIS

In a report issued Feb. 17, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) warned that the spread of HIV infection in Russia, Ukraine, and some other former Soviet republics, is repeating the pattern seen in southern Africa. "We're hitting the tripwire of a 1 percent infection rate among adults," said UNDP head March Malloch Brown. In late 2001, the UN estimated that 1 million people in that region were infected; now the level is between 1.2 and 1.8 million. Transitions Online editorialized in its Feb. 23 issue, "Russia and Ukraine are close to the point when HIV/AIDS will explode into the general public.... Russia, Ukraine, and Estonia are now where South Africa was 12 years ago. In South Africa, the rate of infection is now 20 percent.... By 2025, one forecast suggests that between 4 and 19 million Russians will have HIV, and that, due to AIDS, the population will have lost 3 to 12 million of its potential population."

The UNDP report notes that the spread of drug use and prostitution in the region are factors with underlying causes: "Evidence is growing that HIV/AIDS spreads more rapidly where poverty is extensive, incomes and wealth are distributed very unevenly, livelihoods are not sustainable, large population movements occur, and civil disorder is present." Adds Transitions, "These are patterns that should sound familiar to Russians and Ukrainians. Poverty is rife; upwards of 30 million Russians live below the poverty line, according to figures from last year. Within Russia, internal migration is significant, despite the costs and difficulties. The growth of the oil industry is encouraging movement. Ukrainians work in large numbers abroad, despite the new obstacles posed by its neighbors' imminent EU membership. Human trafficking is at horrific levels."

According to Russian reports, 70% of those contracting HIV are under 25 years of age. Mother-to-child transmission of HIV is a major concern. Only a tiny fraction of HIV sufferers in Russia are receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the "cocktail" of antiretroviral drugs used against AIDS in the West.

Demographers Murray Feshbach and Judyth Twigg discussed the looming AIDS crisis in Russia, at a Kennan Institute seminar on Feb. 6. There Feshbach noted that all projections show that Russian death rates from AIDS and related illnesses will be higher, per capita, in 2010 than they were in the USA at the height of the HIV epidemic. HIV/AIDS will interact with tuberculosis, which is already a major problem in Russia.

In a Feb. 26 communication to Johnson's Russia List, Feshbach pointed out that in 2001, 781 people died of TB in the United States, while 29,900 died in Russia; adjusting for the USA's higher population, the Russian TB-related mortality rate is 60 times greater than that in the USA. The officially reported rate of syphilis in Russia is 120 per 100,000 population, as against 0.7 per 100,000 in Western Europe. "For the moment," Feshbach added, "the HIV/AIDS death rates are still relatively low in comparison to Sub-Saharan Africa, but just wait a few more years when the seroconversion from HIV to AIDS [in people infected during the 1990s] hits Russia, and the numbers of deaths zoom, analogous to the growth of HIV in the 1997-1999 period" in southern Africa. Most of the victims will die when they are between 25 and 40 years of age, making an enormous impact on the economy and society.

Russia, EU Seek Agreement on EU Expansion

Kremlin spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky said Feb. 26 that Russia expects to be able to sign a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with the European Union before May 1, when 10 new EU members formally join. The new members are East European countries, including the three Baltic states that part of the Soviet Union. An extension of the existing Russia-EU PCA to those countries would hit Russia with quotas, tariffs, and visa restrictions on business with countries that have been its major trading partners. "There is no crisis in relations with Europe," said Yastrzhembsky, but "there are some key points of disagreement. We are affected by this process financially and economically." According to Russian acting Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, the EU will account for over half of Russia's foreign trade, instead of the current 36%.

Earlier this year, Russia submitted a list of 14 agenda items for discussion about desired changes in the PCA, including higher quotas for Russian exports to EU members. The European Commission in mid-February circulated a harshly worded policy paper, calling to toughen up in relations with Russia due to the latter's performance in a whole range of areas: human rights, democracy, freedom of the press, trade, border regimes, and the environment. The British press, especially, played up the conflict. The London Economist headlined Feb. 21, "Russia and the European Union: Dark Skies to the East."

On Feb. 23, the EU foreign ministers issued a statement that called the existing PCA the "cornerstone" of EU-Russia relations, adding that Russia should agree to renew it "without pre-condition or distinction by May 1," in order to "avoid a serious impact on EU-Russia relations in general." The ministers said, "The EU is open to discuss any of Russia's legitimate concerns over the impact of enlargement, but this shall remain entirely separate from PCA extension." That same day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Chizhov told the Financial Times Russia would be willing to extend the old PCA to the new EU members, but on a temporary basis. He estimated that EU expansion will cost Russia $375 million annually in lost trade. Stiffer conditions for the export of Russian aluminium, chemicals, grain, and nuclear fuel were of special concern, he said.

Heritage Man Calls for Lukashenka To Get Soros/Georgia Treatment

In a Feb. 29 Washington Times op-ed titled "Farewell to Europe's last dictator," Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Foundation, called for the ouster of Alexander Lukashenka as President of Belarus. He wrote, "Local NGO-organized effort and international support, culminating in political protests tied to stolen elections, may be the magic mix which makes dictators disappear." While not mentioning George Soros, the neo-con "right winger" Cohen is clearly in bed with the neo-con "left winger" Soros. Cohen claims that if Lukashenka is not overthrown in the 2004 elections, or in a "Rose Revolution" soon thereafter, then "his country will be reabsorbed in a quasi-imperial Russia." (Cohen wrote Russian Imperialism: Development and Crisis in 1998.) He suggested Lukashenka could flee to North Korea or Cuba, but better yet, he be tried for killing his political opponents.

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