Russia and the CIS News Digest
Russian Defense Minister Inaugurates New Missile Unit
On Dec. 21, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov was accompanied by Strategic Missile Corps Commander Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, to inaugurate Russia's fourth unit of Topol-M ICBMs. Ivanov's remarks there were played up on national TV. He said that the activation of the regiment shows "the unwavering commitment of this country's leadership to maintaining our strategic nuclear potential."
"Only these weapons can ensure our sovereignty and national security," he said, "Placing more silo-based and mobile Topol-M systems on alert duty is a priority task for the country, and the task is being carried out without fail." In addition, Ivanov stressed that Russia is "qualitatively improving" its nuclear arsenal, including the Topol-M. This ICBM was designed as a road-mobile, single-warhead system, but improvements would include MIRVing itequipping it with multiple, independently targettable warheads.
Asked about possible reactions to Russia's putting its most modern missiles on combat status, Ivanov said, "We are less worried about other countries' reaction to placing missile systems on alert duty than we are concerned about our security. This is why recently we paid great attention to the quality development of the strategic nuclear forces.
Putin Warns Washington that Empires Fail
In his year-end webcast discussion with Russian citizens, President Vladimir Putin warned that the United States should guard against feelings of infallibility, which have led to bad endings for empires throughout history. Putin answered a question on whether the U.S. was heading for another Vietnam, in Iraq: "We are not interested in the USA losing its fight against international terrorism, we are their partners in it. But Iraq is a special case, there were no international terrorists there under [Saddam] Hussein.
"The use of force outside one's borders can be allowed only by UN Security Council sanction; this is international law. Hence, everything done without such sanction cannot be approved as legitimate, neither [can it] be justified.
"But in the history of mankind, great countries, empires, have always suffered a number of problems, like feelings of invulnerability, of greatness, of infallibility. This has always worked against them. I hope it will not happen to our American partners."
Putin May Revise Some Privatizations
In a Dec. 23 address to the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, headed by Yevgeni Primakov, President Vladimir Putin reiterated that he does not plan a policy of mass re-nationalization of privatized corporations, but warned that privatizations that "did not observe the law," could be reviewed. The Moscow Times reported the speech under the headline "Putin Threatens To Revisit Sell-Offs."
Putin said, "I keep hearing ... that the laws were complicated, and that it was impossible to observe them. Yes, the laws were complex ... but it was quite possible to respect them. If five, seven or 10 people broke the law, that doesn't mean others did the same." It is not acceptable for "those who were involved in deliberate fraud" to be better off than those who obeyed the law.
Yukos's Khodorkovsky Remains in Jail
The Basmanny District Court on Dec. 22 granted a request from the Russian Prosecutor General's Office to extend the detention of former Yukos Oil chairman Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky for another three months, which meansbarring an unforeseen eventthat he will remain in jail until after the Russian Presidential elections in March. He has been charged with seven criminal offenses, including fraud and tax evasion. His partner, former bank president Platon Lebedev, also lost his appeal against his extended detention.
Joint Russia-Mercosur Communique
A communique was issued Dec. 16 following Russian Foreign Minister Ivan Ivanov's participation in the Mercosur (Common Market of the South) Heads of State summit, held in Montevideo that day. Signed by the seven countries represented (Russia, the four Mercosur core membersArgentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguayplus Associate members Bolivia and Chile) it states that it is the desire of these nations to establish a "Mechanism of Political Dialogue and Cooperation" among them, in order to better cooperate in multi-lateral forums on international peace and security, such as at the UN, and to foster trade, investment, and scientific and technological cooperation between them.
Brazil's initiative to bring Russia directly into Ibero-American policy discussions, is a facet of Brazil's increasingly aggressive diplomatic efforts to create some counter-balance to the Bush-Cheney regime's drive for world hegemonywithout breaking with the IMF system, however.
Just back from a nine-day trip to the Middle East, President Lula da Silva told Brazilians in his bi-weekly radio program on Dec. 15, that he will most likely visit China in May 2004, should visit India next year, also, and would try and persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit Brazil.
Russia-China Defense Document Signed
Russia and China signed a defense cooperation protocol Dec. 17, providing for China to buy $2 billion worth of Russian arms, weapons systems, and technologies next year, The Hindu reported, citing Russian media. Russia and China "are all set to boost cooperation in sensitive defense areas, including joint research and development of new weapon systems and their supply to third countries." This has been "a privilege so far enjoyed by India."
Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Cao Gangchuan, who is making an eight-day visit to Russia as the guest of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, will lead the Chinese delegation at the regular meeting of the Russian-Chinese Intergovernmental Commission on Military-Technological Cooperation being held in Moscow.
The protocol is a detailed program for Chinese-Russian defense interaction in 2004, involving new and ongoing contracts valued at the equivalent of US$2 billion, said Deputy Defense Minister Mikhail Dmitriyev. "China occupies the number one place in Russia's foreign military-technical cooperation and will retain this place in year 2004," he added.
Cao Gangchuan is also meeting Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, but will be received by the supreme military-political leadership of Russia, to discuss further development of the two nations' strategic partnership and key issues of international and regional security. Cao Gangchuan will also visit Nizhny Novgorod and St. Petersburg, to see modern armaments and military hardware produced in Russian defense enterprises.
On Dec. 16, Cao Gangchuan told reporters that, if the European Union lifts its embargo on supplying weapons to China, this would not affect the Russian-Chinese military cooperation. The possibility that the EU will lift the embargo is due to the favorable development of relations between China and the EU, Cao said.
Presidents of Russia and Ukraine Meet in Kerch
Russian President Putin visited Ukraine the week of Dec. 22 for talks with President Leonid Kuchma. Meeting in Kerch, Crimea, near the recent focus of a territorial dispute over Tuzla Island (or, Tuzla Spit), the two signed an agreement on joint use of the Straits of Kerch. It is evidently designed as an economic cooperation umbrella, under which the political tensions can be cooled out.
The straits are to be used by both Russia and Ukraine, while third countries are allowed to enter the Sea of Azov only if both Russia and Ukraine agree. There will be a 50-50 joint company for economic development of the straits region, which will supervise shipping and fishing in the border territory. They also agreed to sign a comprehensive treaty on the border in the Sea of Azov. Reports indicate this treaty will be essentially similar to the agreements reached by Caspian Sea littoral countries ("the bottom is divided, while the waters are jointly used").
Michael Saakashvili Visits Ukraine
Despite an unstable situation in Georgia, with newly installed President Nino Burjanadze warning about the threat of a military coup, Michael Saakashvili, the leader of the coup against President Eduard Shevardnadze, found time to travel to Ukraine in mid-December. He was invited by Victor Yushchenko, head of the Our Ukraine party, whom some Project Democracy types have pegged as the Saakashvili of Ukrainecapable of toppling President Kuchma. In a public speech in Kiev, Saakashvili said that Russia's having invited to Moscow the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was evidence of a "pro-separatist policy."
However, President Putin did meet with Burjanadze, on the occasion of the funeral of former Ajerbaijan President Heidar Aliyev (see below).
Aliyev Funeral Occasions Diplomacy
We note the death of Heidar Aliyev, former President of Azerbaijan and long-time Soviet intelligence and political figure before that, announced on Dec. 12. Stories about Aliyev's background ranged from a kinship relationship with an important operative in Soviet "nationalities policy" at the time of the early-1920s Baku Conference of Eastern Peoples; to his coming from a family of Muslim clerics in Azerbaijan; to his being the son of a worker. Be that as it may, his rise in both the Soviet Communist Party and the KGB was as a protégé of the late Yuri Andropov. He was a member of the Politburo in the 1980s. Accordingly, Aliyev had some special relationship with British Intelligence and its operations in the Transcaucasus, which carried over into the post-Soviet period.
Aliyev was returned to power as head of his native Azerbaijan in June 1993, on the shoulders of a rebel militia force that overthrew President Elchibey. Aliyev promptly invited British Petroleum to lead the consortium to exploit Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea oil resources. He also cultivated business with Bush-league U.S. petroleum companies, including Enron.
Aliyev died of heart failure at the Cleveland Clinic in the United States. His son Ilham had been elected to succeed him, a few months ago.
Aliyev's funeral occasioned the assembly of CIS country leaders and others. In attendance were Presidents Putin of Russia, Kuchma of Ukraine, Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan's Prime Minister Khalilov, acting President of Georgia Burjanadze, the just-toppled President Shevardnadze, Ajarian President Abashidze (who, from within Georgia, refuses to recognize the new government), Prime Minister of Turkey Ahmet Necdet Sezer, and Iran's Vice Premier Mohammad Reza Aref. The United States was represented by Brent Scowcroft. Vagit Alekperov, head of Russia's Lukoil company, was there, as was Mayor Yuri Luzhkov of Moscow.
Kommersant noted that the recent bid by U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to take advantage of the Azerbaijan leadership transition and set up U.S. military bases in Azerbaijan, under the pretext of "securing the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline," is negatively perceived in Moscow. Naturally, such initiatives inspire provocateurs to push destabilization projects. Speaking to Izvestia, provocateur thinktanker Stanislav Belkovsky advised the Kremlin "to play on the increasing tensions in the Azeri elite, including the contradictions in the circles devoted to Ilham Aliyev."
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