In this issue:

Top British Intelligence Veteran Blasts Iraq Policy

Schroeder Diplomacy Strengthening Europe-Russia Ties

EU Security Policy Paper Emphasizes Non-Military Approach

German Exports to China Rise; Fall to U.S. and Japan

Iran Seeks French, German Assistance in Petrochemicals

Is Green Party Cheney's Tool Against Schroeder?

German Police Raid on 'Caliphate State' Organization

Wolfowitz's Revenge vs. Iraq War Opponents Denounced

From Volume 2, Issue Number 50 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Dec. 16, 2003

Western European News Digest

Top British Intelligence Veteran Blasts Iraq Policy

Britain's former Joint Intelligence Committee chief accused his successors of wrongly engaging with Prime Minister Tony Blair in policy-making on the war on Iraq.

Sir Rodric Braithwaite said, in a speech at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) Dec. 5, that the intelligence committee "stepped outside its traditional role" in being pulled into Blair's drive for war, which "inevitably undermined their objectivity." This adds fuel to the fire, as the report on the hearings into the alleged suicide of Dr. David Kelly, the scientist who raised questions about the justification of the Iraq war, is expected to indict the process of taking Britain to war against Iraq. The report of the Hutton Commission that reviewed the Kelly death is due out in January.

Schroeder Diplomacy Strengthening Europe-Russia Ties

Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder met with Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in Berlin Dec. 7, and received Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski there, Dec. 8. Then, Schroeder will receive the Finnish Prime Minister Martti Vanhanen in Berlin, before departing for another summit with President Jacques Chirac in Paris.

The foreign ministers of France (Dominique de Villepin) and Germany (Joschka Fischer) will also meet in the French capital. On Dec. 10, Fischer is scheduled to receive his Russian counterpart Igor Ivanov, in Berlin.

After meeting in Paris for several hours Dec. 9, Chirac and Schroeder told the press that, given the leading role of both states inside Europe, they are not willing to make certain concessions that would go against the substance of that role.

"Whatever is going to happen in, and with, Europe, the relationship between France and Germany is reliable ... and has to be taken into account." "We are not going to accept anything on any condition," Chirac added.

These remarks are meant, naturally, in direct reference to the Dec. 12 European Union heads of state summit meeting on the EU constitution project, where most of the smaller member states like Austria are ganging up against France and Germany on several issues, such as the European Defense project.

EU Security Policy Paper Emphasizes Non-Military Approach

A European Union paper, "A Secure Europe in an Better World," passed in Brussels on Dec. 12, before the official opening of the final summit of the EU for 2003, is an improved version of the document adopted six months ago, at the Thessaloniki summit in Greece. The paper was compiled by Xavier Solana, the EU chief coordinator of foreign and security policies.

Immediately in the introduction, the paper defends multilateralism, saying, "European countries are committed to dealing peacefully with disputes and to cooperating through common institutions."

"The United States has played a critical role in European integration and European security, in particular through NATO," the paper continues. "The end of the Cold War has left the United States in a dominant position as a military actor. However, no single country is able to tackle today's complex problems on its own." The enlarged European Union with 25 member states and 450 million people, "should be ready to share in the responsibility for global security and in building a better world," the paper adds.

The first chapter of the paper addresses "global challenges, "like poverty and disease: "Almost 3 billion people, half the world's population, live on less than two euros (about $2.40) a day. Forty-five million die every year of hunger and malnutrition.... Sub-Saharan Africa is poorer now than it was 10 years ago. In many cases, economic failure is linked to political problems and violent conflict."

The second chapter, on "strategic objectives," portrays the strictly military-technical aspects with lesser priority than "conflict prevention and threat prevention" which, it states, "cannot start too early." The paper states that "in contrast to the massive visible threat in the Cold War, none of the new threats is purely military, nor can any be tackled by purely military means." It adds that "resolution of the Arab/Israeli conflict is a strategic priority for Europe."

"Our security and prosperity increasingly depend on an effective multilateral system," the paper says. "We are committed to upholding and developing International Law. The fundamental framework for international relations is the United Nations Charter. The UN Security Council has the primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. Strengthening the United Nations, equipping it to fulfil its responsibilities and to act effectively, is a European priority."

NATO is described as "an important expression" of the transatlantic relationship, and "one of the core elements of the international system." But while the paper says, "the transatlantic relationship is irreplaceable," it adds that, "Acting together, the European Union and the United States can be a formidable force for good in the world. Our aim should be an effective and balanced partnership with the USA."

The third chapter calls for "preventive engagement" with other nations, in more actively pursuing Europe's strategic objectives. Europe "needs to be able to act before countries around us deteriorate, when signs of proliferation are detected, and before humanitarian emergencies arise. Preventive engagement can avoid more serious problems in the future."

In addition to the U.S., priority "strategic partnerships" are identified as being with Russia, Japan, China, India, "as well as with those who share our goals and values, and are prepared to act in their support."

German Exports to China Rise; Fall to U.S. and Japan

A preview of the latest official statistics for September shows that German exports to Asian, Eastern European, and Eurozone countries continued to increase, whereas exports to the United States, Japan, and non-eurozone European countries showed a continued decline.

The most spectacular single increase was reported in exports to China, which went up by 38.7% (compared to Sept. 2002); Eurozone countries imported 10.6 percent more, Eastern European countries 7.2%. (See InDepth for German Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder's visit to China.

Iran Seeks French, German Assistance in Petrochemicals

Mohamad Reza Memadzadeh, managing director of National Iranian Petrochemical Company (NIPC), said in Tehran, Dec. 9, that Iran plans a major increase in production of petrochemical products, notably for export. With the successful completion of the fourth national economic development plan by the year 2010, Iran plans to increase its petrochemical production from the current 16 million tons, to 50 million tons by then.

The export offensive will focus on rapidly-growing national economies like China and India, and for that, Iran wants to have technological and other assistance from, especially, France and Germany.

Is Green Party Cheney's Tool Against Schroeder?

German Chancellor Schroeder's most recent strong foreign and economic policy alignment with France, Russia, and China is certain to provoke the Cheneyacs into attempting new destabilizations. One immediate option is the brawl inside the German government's Red-Green coalition over Schroeder's "yes" to the sale to China of a plant for processing of nuclear fuel for power plants, and his support for France's effort to lift the 1989 weapons embargo against China.

For the Green Party (Schroeder's coalition partner), China is an alleged "rogue state," because of Tibet, Taiwan, Falun Gong, and the Three Gorges Dam development. It is not hard to get the Greens mobilized against Schroeder. And, Baerbel Hoehn, Green Party cabinet minister in the North Rhine-Westphalia state government, revealed her "master's voice," when declaring that if Schroeder insisted on the nuclear deal with China, the Greens would have to call on the United States to interfere, because American interests were affected. Which poses the question: Would the Greens lend a hand to topple Schroeder, to serve the Cheneyites' interests?

German Police Raid on 'Caliphate State' Organization

In one of the biggest police operations in recent times, more than 5,000 policemen took part, on Dec. 10, in raids on about 1,000 private residences, stores, and other sites related to members of the "Caliphate State," a Turkish Islamist organization. The organization, founded by Islamic fundamentalist Necmetin Kaplan, was banned in Dec. 2001, but maintains a vast underground network among the Turkish community in Germany.

In Turkey, the group and its leader are charged with numerous acts of violence and terrorism; Kaplan spent some time in a German jail for violations of German laws, but was recently released. A German government attempt to extradite him to Turkey, was denied by a Cologne court.

The police operation is said to be part of a move by German authorities after the recent severe terror attacks in Istanbul, to preempt potential acts of terrorism or provocation, that might be carried out by organizations like Kaplan's in Germany. Turkish and German anti-terror agencies have intensified cooperation.

Wolfowitz's Revenge vs. Iraq War Opponents Denounced

After U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz announced that Germany, France, and Russia would be banned from contracts to rebuild Iraq, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, who was in Berlin, meeting with Chancellor Schroeder, told reporters the policy was "unfortunate," and, "It is up to those who took the decision to reverse it.... It is time we tried to rebuild international consensus and work together and pool our efforts ... to stabilize Iraq." Annan stressed, "This is a task for all, and I emphasize all, that want or can be involved."

Schroeder added, "A constructive attitude is what we need to go forward. International law should be respected and restrictions will not help resolve the tasks of the future, and are backward looking."

The European Commission called the ban a "political mistake," and is opening a probe to see if it violates the rules of the WTO. British official Chris Patten, the EU Commissioner for International Relations said, through a spokesman, it was a "gratuitous and extremely unhelpful decision."

Francois Gere, director of the Diplomatic and Defense Institute in Paris, stated that, the "Secretary of Defense has decided to use some kind of retaliation" against those who did not support the war.

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