In this issue:

U.S. Cuts $250-300 Million from Israel Loan Guarantees

Germany Refuses To Build Mores Subs for Israel

Two Peace Resolutions Before U.S. Congress

Israelis and Palestinians Meet in London

President Katsav Meets Geneva Accord Drafters

Sharon in New Anti-Peace Provocation

U.S. Adopting Israeli Methods in Iraq Occupation

U.S. Will Keep 100,000 Troops in Iraq Through 2006

Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Kills U.S. Power Transfer Scheme

Israel-Egypt Nuclear Reactor To Be Built

From Volume 2, Issue Number 48 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Dec. 2, 2003
Mideast News Digest

U.S. Cuts $250-300 Million from Israel Loan Guarantees

Between $250-300 million is being cut from U.S. loan guarantees to Israel, the Bush Administration announced Nov. 25. The announcement followed a meeting between National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's special assistant Dov Weisglass, in Washington, which was also attended by the Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Danny Ayalon. The penalties are being imposed because of money spent by Israel on West Bank settlements, and for sections of the apartheid wall that encroach on Palestinian land. But this amount is a pittance of the $9 billion given in the loan guarantees.

Germany Refuses To Build Mores Subs for Israel

The German government refused a request by Israel for the purchase of two Dolphin-class diesel submarines, the Jerusalem Post confirmed Nov. 26. Germany had built three such submarines and delivered them to Israel, but after learning that Israel had armed these submarines with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, Germany reportedly refused a request for more. This was reported in the German Focus magazine.

Although Juergen Rohweder, spokesman for the German submarine manufacturer HDW, confirmed that there was "Israeli interest" in acquiring more subs, he nevertheless refused to confirm whether such an order was in fact made, or turned down. The Israeli Defense Ministry refused to comment on the story.

The Jerusalem Post cites unnamed officials and analysts as saying such a sale would be very remote, since Germany has refused the sale of all weapon systems to the Israelis because they are being used against the Palestinians.

Two Peace Resolutions Before U.S. Congress

A draft resolution was submitted in both houses of Congress on Nov. 27, urging President Bush to adopt and promote two initiatives for Israeli-Palestinian peace, the Israeli daily Ha'aretz reported on Nov. 28. "The People's Voice," launched by Ami Ayalon and Sari Nusseibeh, and the "Geneva Initiative" drafted by former Justice Minister and Oslo architect Yossi Beilin and former Palestinian Cabinet Minister Yasser Abed Rabbo.

Sponsors of the resolutions include Senators Frank Lautenberg, Dianne Feinstein, and Patrick Leahy. Congressional Quarterly reports that they may be joined by Senators John McCain and Lincoln Chafee, who, respectively, sit on the Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees.

Also, on Dec. 4, Secretary Colin Powell will meet with Beilin and Rabbo—just 72-hours after the scheduled signing of the Geneva Initiative at a ceremony in that Swiss city.

Israelis and Palestinians Meet in London

A meeting of Israeli and Palestinian politicians took place in London under the sponsorship of British and Israeli Labor Party organizations, according to the Nov. 27 Ha'aretz. It seems that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's son, Omri Sharon, who is a Knesset member, is also at the meeting. The others include Israeli Labor Party Knesset members Ephraim Sneh and Isaac Hertzog, who are both on the right wing of the Labor Party. The Palestinians include Palestinian National Security Advisor Jibril Rajoub and Palestinian Legislative Council member Ziyad Abu Zayad.

The meeting, which is entitled "Rabin Peace Seminar," is sponsored by the Yigal Alon Educational Trust and the Association of the Labor Friends of Israel.

A senior Israeli intelligence source commented to EIR that this meeting is an effort to compete with the Geneva Accords peace initiative, which has clearly stolen the show, demonstrating where the peace process has to go. He pointed out the significance of Omri Sharon participating in a conference sponsored by Labor Party institutions. The source said that Sharon père is clearly worried about the Geneva Accords. The Palestinians are participating only because it will demonstrate that even Sharon's people, i.e., his son, will meet with Palestinians who are clearly identified with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat despite Sharon's claim that Arafat is "not a partner."

President Katsav Meets Geneva Accord Drafters

Israeli President Moshe Katsav met with the leading Palestinians who participated in the drafting of the Geneva Accords peace initiative. The four-person Palestinian delegation was led by Yasser Abed Rabbo.

Although President Katsav, who is a member of the Likud Party, said he did not personally agree with the Geneva Accord initiative, he nonetheless said he attributed great importance to meetings with Palestinians, and that his door is always open to "moderate Palestinians who want to hold a dialogue." He added that he was worried about the "rupture that has existed between the sides for the last three years," and would like to meet with new Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia.

This meeting is significant, since Ariel Sharon refused to meet with the Israeli team on the initiative and refused to receive the Geneva Accords document, which the Post Office attempted to deliver to his doorstep.

Sharon in New Anti-Peace Provocation

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is intent on making sure that the Road Map is never implemented, as evidenced by the fact that, just prior to his upcoming meeting with Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Quraie, Sharon told Yediot Ahronot that he has been contemplating unilateral action, should the Road Map fail. Among other things, the "Sharon Plan" would include the provocative unilateral drawing of the border with Palestine, that would be delineated by the security fence now under construction! A few Israeli settlements would be eliminated, restrictions loosened on movement of Palestinians, and Israeli soldiers withdrawn from some West Bank cities. But, Sharon added, construction of the fence would be accelerated. "I have been thinking for some time about unilateral steps that would ease things for Israel and protect its interests," he said, "without addressing the question of whether they are also good for the Palestinians."

Sharon's discussion of his plan, which he has not yet presented to his Cabinet, provoked an immediate response from hard-line members of the government coalition, who warned that their parties would leave the government, were settlements to be dismantled.

U.S. Adopting Israeli Methods in Iraq Occupation

Many of the tactics U.S. forces are using in Iraq, especially destroying the homes of suspected insurgents, strongly resemble those of the Israelis against the Palestinians, the Washington Post observed Nov. 22, in an article on the intensification of the war. Iraqis have also noticed the similarity. One elderly Iraqi resident of the town of Hawijat Ali, where U.S. troops demolished several houses after a fruitless search for two insurgents, said, "The Americans want to follow the Israeli plan. It doesn't work there. Why will it work, here?"

The Los Angeles Times was more explicit, however, reporting that the U.S. is actively seeking advice from the Israelis on how to fight counterinsurgency warfare. Stephen Cambone, the Straussian Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence, commented on the comparison at a defense reporters breakfast, on Nov. 21, "Those who have to deal with like problems tend to share information as best they can." He added that while there is no formal dialogue between the two countries, the U.S. and Israel are working together. The Times went on to report that not only is the U.S. seeking advice, but U.S. soldiers have gone to Israel to train for urban combat in a mock Arab town.

The effectiveness of the intensified U.S. operations is an open question, however, not only because the Israelis have still not won their war against the Palestinians. A spokesman for the 4th Infantry Division said that the bombing and shelling of empty buildings, and other operations, including the rounding up of hundreds of suspected insurgents, is meant to "send a message." The bombing of empty buildings is supposed to throw the insurgents "off guard," by raising the possibility that their shelter will be bombed with them inside. However, whether this type of "shock and awe" operation is militarily effective is a different question. The Post quotes a military engineering officer that the advantage lies with the guerrillas, because while they are difficult to target, they have plenty of targets to shoot at.

U.S. Will Keep 100,000 Troops in Iraq Through 2006

The U.S. Army has already begun planning for the 2006 troop rotation in Iraq, and their present assumption is that the number of troops in Iraq will remain at about 100,000. This planning reflects concerns among senior officers that stabilizing Iraq could be more difficult than originally planned, according to the New York Times. One officer told the Times that maintaining such a force level beyond 2006 would cause the Army to "really start to feel the pain." Some apparently believe that the Army is already feeling the pain. Alexander Cockburn, writing in a commentary in the Nov. 19 Los Angeles Times, quotes one senior officer telling him, "We are one stressed-out reservist away from a massacre."

Cockburn continued, "He was expressing the fear, that a soldier, possibly a reservist, pressed beyond endurance by the rigors and uncertainties of his or her condition in a hostile land far from home, might open up with a machine gun on an Iraqi crowd, with obviously disastrous consequences for the future of the occupation."

Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Kills U.S. Power Transfer Scheme

Najaf-based Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Al-Sistani, who is the highest Shi'ite religious authority, has made it known that the draft proposal for transferring sovereignty to the Iraqi people, presented by the U.S. occupying authority CPA, and agreed to by the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), is not acceptable. Al-Sistani held a meeting on the matter with Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, a member of the IGC from the Shi'ite Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Following the meeting, al-Hakim told reporters that al-Sistani has expressed "deep concern over real loopholes that must be dealt with" in the power-transfer plan by Bremer. "Otherwise," al-Hakim continued, "the process will be deficient and fail to meet the expectations of the people of Iraq.

"Among the main objections [of al-Sistani] is the lack of a role by the Iraqi people in the process of transferring powers to the Iraqis." He warned that without dealing with the "loopholes, the entire process will not be concluded in a normal fashion, and [expressed the] fear that there will be negative consequences that lead to much suffering and many problems for Iraqis."

This refers to Bremer's plan to have a transitional national assembly elected in regional meetings, by politicians, scholars, professionals, tribal leaders, legal experts, and others, who will be selected. This group is supposed to elect a provisional government to take power in June 2004.

Al-Sistani has always emphasized the need for any such body, which elects a government or drafts a constitution, to be democratically elected by the people of Iraq. This is what he told Hakim, who said: "This method is not enough," referring to the U.S.-backed caucus idea. "In it we see the lack of real reflection of the will of the Iraqi people." Hakim said what they require is "for an election to be held for a transitional National Assembly. Elections can be held in at least 80% of Iraqi territory," he said.

Hakim also stated that al-Sistani thought the Constitution, which Bremer and the IGC want to draft, did not contain enough guarantees to protect Iraq's "Islamic identity."

Israel-Egypt Nuclear Reactor To Be Built

According to quotes in the Arab daily Al Sharq Al Awsat and reported on Israeli radio Nov. 22, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said the United States is about to present a plan for the construction of a joint Israeli-Egyptian nuclear-power plant. The electricity-generating reactor would be built under American supervision with a third party, most likely South Africa. It would be built in the Negev region along the Egypt-Israel border.

If true, and there is South African involvement, this could very well involve a high-temperature reactor. The U.S. company General Atomics also has a version of this technology and has cooperated with South Africa on it in the past. EIR also knows from its contacts, that there is considerable interest in Israel for such a reactor. Of course, as everyone in the region knows, an HTR-type is part of Lyndon H. LaRouche's Oasis Plan for a Middle East peace through development.

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