Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Franco-German Position Against War Endorsed by Russia and China
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, meeting his Greek counterpart in Athens Jan. 23, stated his agreement with the leaders of France and Germany that "there is still political and diplomatic leeway to resolve the Iraq issue." Ivanov added that "Russian deems that there is no evidence that would justify a war in Iraq.... We hope that no country will take unilateral action outside of UN resolutions.... If that happens, Russia will do all that is necessary to return the process to the path of diplomacy. The efforts of the international community must be directed now at helping international inspectors perform their mission. This is the direction which we intend to pursue along with, among others, the European Union."
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Russian President Vladimir Putin conferred by telephone Jan. 24, sharing the view that everything must be done to give the inspections the time and help they need, without resort to military methods.
Also on Jan. 23, the Foreign Ministry of China announced that China's position on Iraq is "extremely close to that of France," and that Beijing is looking forward to working with Paris to prevent a war and to consolidate the inspections.
Gulf States Call for Stepped-Up Russian Role To Prevent Iraq War
The English-language Saudi paper Arab News reported Jan. 22 that member-states of the Gulf Cooperation Council have called on Russia to step up diplomatic efforts to prevent a threatened U.S. war against Iraq, and to resolve the crisis peacefully. "We call on Russian diplomacy to be more active at this delicate stage and to carry out diplomatic efforts aimed at finding a political and peaceful solution to the Iraqi crisis and prevent war which we all reject," GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Atiyya said.
Opening the inaugural meeting of a business forum between the GCC states and Russia, Atiyya said the six-member bloc was concerned about war affecting the people of Iraq, and the country's stability, unity, and territorial integrity. In his speech, delivered on his behalf by Dr. Anwar Al-Abdullah, director of energy and economic affairs at the GCC Secretariat, Atiyya also warned of the impact another war would have on the stability of the whole Gulf region.
The Russian delegation was headed by former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov, now chairman of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, who has decades of experience as a Mideast specialist. He was quoted by Arab News as warning that a U.S. war against Iraq could split the world along religious lines, as well as leading to internal conflicts in many states.
Primakov met in Riyadh with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, deputy premier and commander of the National Guard, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
Gulf Cooperation Council Seeks Expanded Trade with Russia
The GCC-Russia business conference, held in Jeddah, aims at promoting Gulf investments in the Russian Federation, especially the energy sector. Moscow estimates that total investments from Gulf states in Russia stand at just $100 million. "This conference will serve as a launching pad for a comprehensive economic partnership between the GCC states and Russia with a long-term perspective," GCC Secretary-General Atiyya said.
The forum called for joint investments in basic industries such as petrochemicals, oil refining, energy services, the natural gas industry, minerals, food, medicine, electricity, and water. It also demanded an increase in trade exchange and transfer of technology.
Georgi Petrov, vice chairman of the Federation of Russian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, described the forum as an important step toward opening more business areas for cooperation. "These areas will not be limited to energy, but will cover various other economic and commercial areas," he said, and underscored the growing economic and commercial ties between the Arab world and his country. Mohammed Al-Manie, chairman of the Federation of GCC Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said there is more scope for cooperation between the two sides. He hoped that the forum would remove the obstacles facing the growth of bilateral ties.
Ibrahim Al-Jomaih, a member of the Jeddah chamber's board, expressed the Saudi Kingdom's desire to strengthen cooperation with Russia. Al-Jomaih called for a joint trade agreement to set out strategies for industrial and commercial cooperation. He stressed the importance of holding trade exhibitions and exchanging visits by business delegations. This conference comes as a follow-up to the Saudi-Russian initiative for expansion of economic and strategic ties, launched late last year with the visit of former Saudi intelligence director Prince Turki al-Faisal. That initiative was intercepted, but not stopped, by the Moscow theater hostage-taking terrorist operation on Oct. 23, 2002.
Saudi Daily Highlights Russian Economic Interest, Diplomatic Mediation in Persian Gulf
A Jan. 21 editorial in the Saudi daily Arab News, titled "Russia and Iraq," presented this analysis: "Washington certainly will not have been pleased, but this week's deal between Iraq and Russian oil and gas companies may be as politically significant as it is commercially." It described the previous week's deals between Iraq and Russian oil companies as a triumph for Russia. "The oil field development deals for Russian firms Stroytransgaz and Soyuzneftgaz, and the return of Lukoil to the West Qurna oil field, from which it had been thrown out last year for failing to start contracted work, is something of a business triumph. Russian oil companies already have a direct interest in a third of Iraqi oil and gas production," Arab News stated, adding, however, that these assets could become worthless in the event of a U.S. attack on Iraq.
Arab News further argued: "Russian activity in Iraq should not, however, be seen in isolation. It is part of a wider interest in the Middle East, which is prompted this time not by geopolitical rivalry but by commercial considerations. The Russians can be expected to make better use this time of their relations with the region, than they did during the Cold War. From the moment they eased the Americans out of the Aswan Dam project in 1956 to the day Anwar Sadat threw them out of Egypt in 1972, Moscow's men made a series of errors in their attempts to win hearts and minds in the Middle East."
The editorial concluded with an unprecedented call for Russia to come to the region and counterbalance the U.S. presence. "Even though modern Russia is most unlikely to offer any regional military engagement, it is probable that its growing commercial interests in the Middle East will act as an important counterbalance to a United States ever more willing to throw its weight around. At present its influence is unlikely to be decisive with the White House, but Russia's deals in Iraq should nevertheless give President Bush and his team pause for thought."
Glazyev Speaks at Zayed Centre
Dr. Sergei Glazyev was hosted Jan. 19 in Abu Dhabi at the Zayed Centre for Coordination and Follow-up, to speak on "The Economic Policy in Russia in the Context of Globalization." Former Minister of Foreign Economic Ties and former chairman of State Duma's Committee on Economic Policy and Business, Glazyev is a member of the State Duma and of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He also holds a post at the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, now headed by Yevgeni Primakov. During his visit to the United Arab Emirates, Glazyev also took part in the first business forum, held between Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council nations.
According to a summary provided by the Zayed Centre, Glazyev reported on the process of looting of the Russian economy over the last decade, particularly the targetting of the oil, electricity, and aerospace sectors for foreign takeover. The U.S. circles involved in these operations, he said, were not just after profits, but sought to control Russian policy-making.
Glazyev presented his views on threatened Iraq war, on Russian trade relations with Europe, NATO expansion, the territorial question in Russian-Japanese relations, and the "artificially created" crisis around North Korea. According to the Zayed Centre summary, "he suggested that some people in the U.S. Administration wanted to assume the role of world giants to be at the head of a new Roman Empire. He was critical of the influence of Brzezinski and the like's writings on the minds of Bush's aides in foreign policy, which might lead to a permanent world war.... He added that in the face of the new American designs and escalation of tension, it was imperative to intensify international cooperation and solidarity to counter the philosophy of the new world empire."
Glazyev strongly defended Russia's nuclear energy cooperation with Iran.
On the conflict in Chechnya, "The Russian expert said that it was not a war between Muslims and Christians or between Chechens and Russians. It was a war that was being waged by some criminal organizations that were trying to internationalize it for the sake of reaping huge profits. He termed it an economic war against Russia, instead of being a cultural or political war. He hoped through negotiations, Russian and Chechen leaders would succeed in establish peace in Chechnya."
In conclusion, Glazyev urged Arabs to invest in Russia, as offering the greatest growth prospects in the world.
Russian Envoy in Intense North Korea Meetings
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Losyukov met for six hours with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on Jan. 20, this being the main event during a visit to Pyongyang by Losyukov and a group of Foreign Ministry colleagues, as emissaries of President Putin in an attempt to cool the North Korea crisis of recent weeks. Losyukov stopped for consultations in Beijing, on his way to Pyongyang and while returning.
At a press conference given Jan. 24 in Moscow, Losyukov called the mission "productive and useful," expressing "some optimism" about the possibility for a peaceful solution. He said there were grounds for eliminating the international community's concerns about possible North Korean development of nuclear weapons, while the United States could eliminate North Korea's fears of U.S. attack. Losyukov emphasized the need for direct U.S.-North Korean contacts, warning that a push to take the matter to the United Nations Security Council (as U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton and others have proposed) "will be viewed by the North Korean side as an attempt to exert even more pressure," after the cut-off of fuel oil.
Losyukov reported that President Putin briefed President Bush Jan. 23, on the outcome of the Russian diplomatic visit, and that he personally had reviewed its details with Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, visiting Moscow that day.
India's Defense Minister in Moscow
On Jan. 17, India's Defense Minister George Fernandes arrived in Moscow and met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Ivanov. The two sides signed an agreement on military technological cooperation. Fernandes said, according to Kommersant, that the agreement included joint construction of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft. The document also provides for the creation of joint-stock companies in the defense industry, which Fernandes said would provide a solution for certain problems which existed in this sphere before.
Finnish Analyst: 'Eurasian RailwayKey to the Korean Deadlock?'
Markku Heiskanen's article under this title has been published on the nautilus.org web site, specializing in Asia-Pacific security matters. Heiskanen, now at the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, was instrumental when at the Finnish Foreign Ministry, in arranging an April 2002 Eurasian Railway conference in Helsinki with top-level Russian and Chinese participation.
"What is under way now," Heiskanen writes, "could mark the beginning of 'a new logistical world order,' probably constituting new large-scale conceptions in international relations, not least by introducing a new (yet ancient) region of continental peaceful cooperation in Eurasia." Heiskanen relates this directly to the present increased tension on the Korean Peninsula. "The reconnection of the trans-Korean railway would be of the utmost importance as a confidence- and security-building measure on the Korean Peninsula," he writes. "The further connection of the trans-Korean railway with the Eurasian railways networks through Korea's gigantic neighbors China and Russia opens up prospects for the Eurasian railways to become an important multilateral confidence and security resource, not only on the Korean Peninsula but in the whole of Northeast Asia."
Heiskanen gives the Eurasian Land-Bridge a particular Northern twist, noting that the line through Korea and the Trans-Siberian Railroad to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Helsinki, and further north to the Norwegian port of Narvik, could also reinvigorate the traditional sea trade from Narvik to the east coast of the Americas. This was, for obvious reasons, an important focus of the Helsinki symposium last year, although Heiskanen is well aware that it is only one "link" of such a land-bridge. Heiskanen reports that the Chinese Ministry of Railways and the International Union of Railways (IUC) had also organized a symposium in Beijing last December to study the recently complete IUC's "Northern East-West Corridor" project to open a freight corridor from China to the eastern coast of the United States, via the Eurasian railways and the deep-water ice-free port of Narvik. U.S. Department of Commerce representatives attended the Beijing conference.
Reflecting the concepts promoted by EIR worldwide during the past decade, Heiskanen expresses an understanding of the strategic significance of the Land-Bridge. "The increasing transfer of freight transportation from the sea routes via the Suez Canal, and eventually even the Panama Canal, to other alternative routings, and an eventual increase in passenger train traffic between Europe and Northeast Asia, would reflect positively on the economies of the whole region, Japan's included, and not least the Russian Far East, with its abundance of natural resources."
Russian Petroleum Transport Infrastructure To Stay in State Hands
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov told oil businessmen on Jan. 10, that all new oil and gas pipelines constructed in Russia will be state-owned. Most of the fuel oligarchs had plans to construct privately owned pipelines: Yukos anticipated owning 51% of the planned Angarsk-Daqing pipeline, running from East Siberia's Irkutsk region to China, as well as a quarter of the stock in a new West Siberia-Murmansk export pipeline, to be built through a consortium with Lukoil, TNR, and Sibneft. Russia-Petroleum, which is co-owned by British Petroleum, TNR, and Interros, intended to have full ownership of a natural gas pipeline connecting the Kovykta gas fields with China.
"We are quite disappointed," Sibneft vice president Alexander Korsik told Mikhail Kasyanov, according to Vedomosti of Jan. 13. By contrast, Sergei Grigoryev, vice president of the state-owned pipeline construction monopoly, Transneft, was pleased with Kasyanov's announcement. He said the state would seek loans for pipeline construction, and that the private companies would be able to economize on their own investments. Grigoryev emphasized that the government will make the decision on which pipelines get top priority. He does not exclude the possibility that the first project for action will be the pipeline connecting Irkutsk with Nakhodka Port in Russia's Far East, which was just discussed between President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
The conflict between the private companies and Transneft heated up right after the four major firms declared their intention to construct the West Siberia-Murmansk pipeline, and upgrade the Port of Murmansk, expressly to make it the major facility for exporting Russian oil to the United States. They want to raise the share of Russian oil in U.S. exports from 1% to 15%. This unprecedented accord among the four firms despite difficult relations between Lukoil and Yukos, Yukos and TNK, and TNK and Sibneft, emerged two days after the meeting of Presidents Bush and Putin near St. Petersburg in November 2002.
Baltic Shipping Paralyzed, Russian Infrastructure Damaged By Cold
As of mid-January, with unusual cold throughout Scandinavia and Northwestern Russia, the Baltic Sea had almost completely frozen at the Gulf of Finland. It became physically possible to walk across it safely, from St. Petersburg to Stockholm. Sea and rail transport was paralyzed. On Jan. 13, the St. Petersburg Marine Administration banned small ships without ice protection from entering the Port of St. Petersburg. The Oktyabrskaya Railroad suspended delivery of cargoes to the Vysotsky Port. Both ports are jammed with freighters, while importers and exporters lose millions of dollars. In addition, Russian companies will have to pay fines for delays in delivering coal and timber to Western Europe.
In St. Petersburg, 4,000 water line breaks were reported in the first week of the new year. The town of Tikhvin (population 22,000) in Leningrad Province lost all heat, as did half the town of Valday in Novgorov Province. Governor Valeri Serdyukov of Leningrad Province was besieged by the citizens of Tikhvin when he arrived in the frozen town to address local officials.
Also in St. Petersburg, personnel at the A.I. Ioffe Physical Technological Institute had to burn fires through the night to protect the Institute's experimental thermonuclear reactor, after the rupture of a hot water pipe. Academician Zhores Alfyorov, the Nobel Laureate in physics who heads the Ioffe Institute, said that the reactor was saved by pensioners, retired scientists who continue to work there, because the Institute has lost its government subsidies and cannot hire younger staff. Neither the Ioffe Institute nor the St. Petersburg branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences has the funds to repair the heating system, according to press reports in St. Petersburg. The scientific center now expects to have to cancel a science conference planned for next summer, which was to have been an occasion to advertise its scientific work.
Russian Central Bank Will Reduce Dollar Dependency
The Bank of Russia announced Jan. 24 that it has "no less than 50%" of its $48.1 billion reserves invested in dollar assets, Prime-TASS reported. But this state of affairs will be changed. The Russian Central Bank said it will reduce its dollar-denominated assets in favor of euros, British pounds, or Swiss francs.
Russian Experts Criticize the IMF
The program of a "global system of bankruptcies" (of nations), made public by IMF's ghoulish vice president Anne Krueger on Jan. 8, will just create an additional bureaucratic body, not solve any problems, believes Alexander Ovchinnikov, chief of debt analysis at the Moscow-based Trust & Investment Bank (DIB Bank). "The new bankruptcy committee will just duplicate the functions of the already existing Association of Creditors in Developing Markets, London Club, and Paris Club," Kommersant quoted Ovchinnikov as saying on Jan 10. "The foundation of the committee will also not solve the problem of panic, which usually accelerates the crisis of a national financial system, the investors pulling out of the poor countryas the very fact of a country's appealing to the committee will cause panic."
Another Russian commercial banker, Yevgeni Gavrilenkov of Troika-Dialog, said, "The IMF has been reiterating the same mistake for years. The standard package of conditionalities, applied to any country, did not consider the peculiar features of national economies and the needed reforms, imposing always the samerestriction of spending, and pegging the currency to the U.S. dollar."
Izvestia headlined its report on the Krueger plan, "IMF has Invented a New Method of Looting Countries." Kommersant ran her picture which the caption, "Mrs. Krueger dreams of a system when a bankrupt economy could be sold at auction." Neither newspaper, nor any of the banker sources they cite, is a habitual critic of the international financial organizations and their practices.
|