In this issue:

Thailand Proposes a 'Road Map' for Myanmar Crisis

Chirac in Historic Visit to Malaysia

Russia and China Expand Nuclear Cooperation

China To Launch Its First Astronaut in October

U.S. Commander in Afghanistan Says Taliban Is Returning

Indians Call for Reopening the Burma Road to China

U.S. Expert Asks: Are North Korean Reports Also Fabricated?

From Volume 2, Issue Number 30 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published July 29, 2003
Asia News Digest

Thailand Proposes a 'Road Map' for Myanmar Crisis

In talks on the sidelines of the Asia-Europe Meeting in Bali, Indonesia on July 24, Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai reported keen interest from Indonesia, China, and the European Union, in pulling together six "like-minded" countries, and various political groupings within Myanmar, to draft an agreement to end the stalemate between the Myanmar junta and the party of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been jailed since May 30. Surakiart declined to name participants, but the UN's special envoy to Myanmar, retired Malaysian diplomat Razali Ismail, would be included.

Singapore's Straits Times floated July 24 that one of Indonesia's "elder statesmen," former Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas, has already asked Myanmar's leaders to receive a delegation from ASEAN countries. An ASEAN official indicated the talks would include all opposition parties and refugee groups from Myanmar's minority tribes.

China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said China supports any constructive measures to achieve national reconciliation in Myanmar. A special meeting on the stalemate was held during the Bali conference, which proposed a special ASEAN mission to Myanmar, but only on condition that Myanmar extends an invitation for the mission.

Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart made clear on July 22 where ASEAN stands on sanctions on Myanmar, telling reporters, "We are trying to find an exit for the Myanmar government and also reduce pressure from the international community, which has imposed sanctions that will have negative repercussions against Myanmar's poor. The meeting is to allow members to exchange views, but is not aimed at putting more pressure on Myanmar. ASEAN has already clearly stated its demand for Myanmar to quickly release Aung San Suu Kyi.

Chirac in Historic Visit to Malaysia

French President Jacques Chirac made a brief but significant six-hour stopover in Malaysia on July 23, becoming the first French head of state to visit the country. In the course of the official state visit, Chirac became the first dignitary to receive the inaugural Kuala Lumpur Peace Prize from Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad.

Chirac gave high praise to Mahathir in his speech, saying: "We can't accept any longer, given the changes in the world and the attitude of the people, the law of the jungle." Each individual and nation, he said, should be heard for their contribution to the betterment of the world.

During a joint press conference, the two were asked about the continuing detention in Myanmar of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Dr. Mahathir said wryly: "Whatever we do, we must not think about invading Myanmar in order to achieve regime change." Chirac said he "endorsed the sentiment of that statement," but added that he did not approve of Suu Kyi's detention and urged her release, and that of her colleagues.

In an interview with the New Straits Times July 21, Mahathir had said, "We have already informed them [Myanmar] that we are very disappointed with the turn of events, and we hope that Aung San Suu Kyi will be released as soon as possible."

Russia and China Expand Nuclear Cooperation

Russian Atomic Energy Ministry spokesman Nikolai Shingaryov said July 21 that China and Russia would jointly develop nuclear power plants in space. The Sino-Russian subcommittee on nuclear cooperation planned to meet in Moscow the week of July 21 to discuss the plan.

The two sides are also expected to discuss cooperation in building floating nuclear power plants. Last November, the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy announced its plans to build small 70-megawatt floating nuclear power plants that could provide power to remote areas. The plants would also provide heat and power for water desalination. The Ministry said at that time that the project was "short of investments," and that it had to develop a program for financing it.

In the future, China could build barges for floating nuclear plants at its shipyards. Floating nuclear plants could provide power in underdeveloped and remote regions in both Russia and China, and the plan is to export them to coastal areas in Asia and Africa.

Russian officials also announced that they would complete construction of the first of two nuclear power plants in China in December 2004, as planned.

China To Launch Its First Astronaut in October

The long-awaited and much-anticipated launch of the first Chinese astronaut is now slated for October, officials in the program told Agence France Presse July 23. Previously, the Chinese have more generally stated the launch would be "at the end of this year." There is no indication yet if there will be more than one astronaut. The Earth-orbital mission is slated for a daytime launch, unlike the first four unmanned Shenzhou spacecraft, which were all launched at night. Officials say this is to allow for more moderate temperatures for the ground crews, who launched the first four in below-freezing temperatures.

U.S. Commander in Afghanistan Says Taliban Is Returning

According to The Telegraph of London July 21, American Commander in Afghanistan, Gen. F.L. Hagenbeck, reported that the Taliban is recruiting heavily from the religious schools in and around Quetta in Balochistan, Pakistan, and preparing for a push into Afghanistan. The Taliban fighters, aided by al-Qaeda commanders who are establishing new cells and are financing the capture of American troops, are now coming inside Afghanistan in large and small groups. Hagenbeck claims the Taliban campaign is financed by opium harvested in the southern Helmand province, where the opium is pretty much under the control of the Taliban.

The Telegraph quotes Hagenbeck to point out that Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the renegade Mujahideen commander who has since joined hands with the Taliban, is "operating on the Jalalabad road, moving up and down" along the Pakistan-Afghanistan borders. Also, "there are second- and third-level al-Qaeda leaders trying to establish cells on the road between Khost and Gardez along the Pakistan-Afghanistan borders." Jalalabad sits on the main road between the Pakistani city of Peshawar and Kabul.

Indians Call for Reopening the Burma Road to China

The Indian Business Standard reported July 22 that the Indian Chamber of Commerce in Calcutta has urged the central government to consider opening up trade routes through the northeast of India to Myanmar, and then to southern China. ICC president Vikram Thapar called this proposal the "Initiative for India China Economic Cooperation" (ICON). Thapar said, "Real gains of trade and business opportunities would be felt by opening up of land routes from the northeast through Bangladesh and Myanmar to Kunming in China. This could then be linked up to the proposed Asian highway to link up with Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and onward to Southeast Asian countries." Thapar said that opening up this route would boost trade more than the route through Nathu-La, the pass between Sikkim and Tibet which was opened when Prime Minister Vajpayee was in China last month.

It would be necessary to negotiate for transport through Bangladesh, which would help both Bangladesh and India, with increased access to China through Myanmar. The port route via Chittagong would also have to be improved, Thapar said. Chittagong is located in the southeastern section of Bangladesh, and could serve as the port for the easternmost part of India, which is now landlocked. Thapar said that there are opportunities for joint ventures in tea, bamboo, and silk, as well as petrochemicals. The two sides could also jointly create an integrated international tourist circuit, he said.

Malaysia May Issue Bonds for the Asian Railroad

The Edge weekly said July 20 that bonds worth $3.95 billion would be issued for the mammoth rail project, which requires Malaysia's existing rail network to be electrified and converted to double track, as well as the construction of new lines. It will be part of the $30-billion, 5,500-km trans-Asia line between Singapore and Kunming in southern China.

Quoting sources close to the project, the weekly said several parties had come up with proposals calling for the government to issue paper or guarantee a bond issue for up to 20 years. On July 18, the Malaysia Mining Corp Bhd (MMC), said civil engineering work on the multibillion-dollar project could be completed in three years. MMC is pitching for the job with local infrastructure firm Gamuda Bhd.

Earlier, government-to-government deals with China and India had landed contracts for China Railway Engineering Corp. (CREC) and Indian Railway Construction Co. (IRCON). IRCON was picked to lay an electrified track over a 339-km section in northern Malaysia, while CREC was given a 297-km southern stretch, joined by 174 km of track already being built in the middle. The two were reported in May to have bid 50% more than the $3.2 billion Malaysia wanted to pay.

U.S. Expert Asks: Are North Korean Reports Also Fabricated?

The summer 2003 issue of the Naval War College Review describes CIA reports of ambiguities about North Korean plans to build a uranium enrichment plant, used to make legitimate civilian electric power fuel. Far more equipment and many years would be needed to retool the plants for much higher-grade weapons fuel, they report.

Dr. Jonathan Pollack, chairman of the Strategic Research Department of the Naval War College, writes that "North Korea had no operational enrichment facility" (not built, only planned). "The intelligence community believed North Korea still confronted daunting obstacles even to acquire the production capabilities that might permit such option," he added. "But the stunning disclosure of Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visit to Pyongyang (in September 2002) triggered movement in U.S. policy," Pollack reveals. "The Bush Administration confronted the prospect of abrupt and unanticipated changes in the northeast Asian political and security environment. The DPRK had opened the door to a new relationship with America's most important Asian ally and, prospectively, a major aid donor to the North. There was a real possibility that U.S. options on the peninsula would be driven increasingly by policy agendas of others."

The U.S. Administration then sent Assistant Secretary James Kelly to Pyongyang on Oct. 4 to create a confrontation over the uranium, Pollack charges. Senior U.S. officials "opted to exploit the intelligence for political purposes," Pollack says. "Is there a parallel with what is now going on, after the fact, in estimates about Iraq?" asks Pollack, in the July 16 New York Times. "I think there may be."

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