In this issue:

Zimbabwe's Mugabe Says He'll Serve His Term, But There's Talk of Power-Sharing

Some of Mahathir's Economic Thinking May Be Showing Up in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe's Government Paper Promotes Domestic Steel Manufacture

Nigeria's Largest Opposition Party Chooses Candidate for Presidential Elections

Ivorian Generals Accused by Press of Planning Coup

From Volume 2, Issue Number 3 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Jan. 20, 2003
Africa News Digest

Zimbabwe's Mugabe Says He'll Serve His Term, But There's Talk of Power-Sharing

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe says he will serve his full term, but there is talk of a power-sharing deal with the opposition MDC.

According to a Jan. 15 New York Times article datelined Johannesburg by Rachel Swarns, Mugabe told reporters Jan. 14, during a trip to Zambia, "I am not retiring. I will never, never go into exile.... I fought for Zimbabwe and when I die I will be buried in Zimbabwe, nowhere else.... Only a few months ago, the people elected me to serve them and it would be absolutely counter-revolutionary and foolhardy for me to step down."

A Jan. 12 report in the Sunday Mirror of Zimbabwe said, according to Swarns' formulation, "officials had agreed to create an interim government that would include the leader of the opposition [Morgan Tsvangirai]. The [Sunday Mirror] reported that Mr. Mugabe would step down from power in 2005, a year early, as part of deal intended to ease the country's political and economic crises." (EIR does not have the Sunday Mirror article.)

Swarns adds, "Officials in government and in the opposition said on Monday [Jan. 13] that no formal agreement had been made. Representatives on both sides acknowledged, however, that informal, private discussions about such a plan had already taken place."

The Natal Witness in South Africa Jan. 13 gave some background, saying that Tsvangirai "confirmed a 'clandestine' initiative was brought to him containing an offer that Mugabe would step down to clear the way for the formation of a caretaker government and fresh elections. He said his party could accept immunity for Mugabe. Tsvangirai appears not to have taken the proposal to his colleagues, which might promote divisions in the opposition leadership.... Tsvangirai said he turned down overtures by mediators before Christmas, but after further contact, he believed there was a case for Zimbabweans to 'forget the past and move forward.'"

EIR notes that Tsvangirai had, in fact, publicly complained in December that South Africa and Britain were involved in a transition scheme that he didn't trust. The Witness quoted the commander of the Armed Forces, Gen. Vitalis Zvinavashe, saying the reports are "not worth commenting on." Zvinavashe "was named by mediators of the attempts to broker a deal as one of the two ruling party figures promising to deliver Mugabe's retirement." Zvinavashe "dismissed reports as 'the work of enemies bent on destroying Zimbabwe.'" The information secretary of the ruling ZANU-PF party, Nathan Shamuyarira, "condemned the reports as 'meant to bring the British-sponsored [opposition] to power by unconstitutional means.... It is a mixture of wishful thinking and mischief on the part of the British.'" Paul Themba Nyathi, spokesman for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), said the MDC is not involved in negotiating an "exit package" for Mugabe. Nyathi also said that Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa, the other party official named by mediators as promising to deliver Mugabe's retirement, knows nothing of the plan. Mnangagwa is considered likely to be Mugabe's successor.

The Natal Witness quoted South African Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Ronnie Mamoepa as saying "South Africa is neither aware of, nor party to, the reported deal." The denials do not disclose much about what is, or is not, actually happening. Rachel Swarns, in a Jan. 14 International Herald Tribune) article, went so far as to say that a "government negotiator," who spoke on condition of anonymity, "said the contacts [with the MDC] were made with Mugabe's blessings and with the help of British intermediaries." One intermediary between Zvinavashe and Mnangagwa on the one hand, and Tsvangirai on the other, is reported to be Col. Lionel Dyke, according to the British daily The Guardian of Jan. 13, which describes him as "a close associate" of both of the ruling party men. Dyke commanded the Rhodesian African Rifles and later served in the Zimbabwe Army. He is now retired.

Some of Mahathir's Economic Thinking May Be Showing Up in Zimbabwe

Some of the economic thinking of Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir, may be showing up in Zimbabwe. Reference to the adoption of Mahathir's "smart partnership" concept by the government appears in an editorial entitled, "Adoption of Smart Partnership Concept Gratifying," which appeared Jan. 9 in the Herald, the government newspaper.

It reads in part: "The government and the private sector are finalizing a new economic blueprint to chart the course for this year.

"It is gratifying to note that the two parties have finally adopted the smart partnership concept to devise homegrown solutions to the current economic challenges....

"People have been waiting for something that will take them out of the worsening poverty levels, high unemployment and food shortages....

"We note that the issues being tackled include price management, food shortages, the fuel situation and export viability....

"Some of the solutions believed to be contained in the proposals from industry sound practical, particularly where it says that the government should only concentrate on sourcing fuel for essential use, leaving multinational companies to bring in the resource for non-critical purposes....

"Zimbabwe needs to revive its export performance as this is clearly the only source of foreign currency given the withdrawal of international assistance....

"Proposals to restore viability to strategic parastatals [government-run enterprises] such as the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority and the National Railways of Zimbabwe could only bring good tidings to the economy...."

It looks as if the new Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Dr. Herbert Murerwa, is key to acceptance of the new thinking. Murerwa had been Finance Minister in the past, but was serving as Industry Minister at the time of the shift in late August. The "smart partnership" concept involves cooperation between government and the private sector in a spirit of "prosper thy neighbor." A major meeting of the Smart Partnership International Dialogue took place in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, in 1998.

Zimbabwe's Government Paper Promotes Domestic Steel Manufacture

The Herald, Zimbabwe's government newspaper, called for upgrading the domestic production of steel in an analysis published Jan. 14. It reads in part: "Zimbabwe has large resources of easily accessible iron ore and coal. These are the essential ingredients to make steel and, as a result, steel has been made in Zimbabwe for decades. However, in recent years steel has been made at a loss and intermittently.... The reasons can be reduced to two: lack of capital and bad managers. Given adequate capital and good management it should be possible for Zimbabwe to have a viable steel industry that can supply the bulk of local needs with a healthy surplus for export to neighboring states.... There have been many advances in recent years in steel production that allow well-managed modern plants to produce high quality steel from the basic ores without subsidy and for a profit.

"The Zimbabwe Iron and Steel Company has to join the ranks of these modern producers, using its crucial position in the center of Southern Africa, to compete on delivered costs to customers in Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa."

Nigeria's Largest Opposition Party Chooses Candidate for Presidential Elections

Nigeria's largest opposition party has chosen Mohammed Buhari as the candidate to face off against President Obasanjo in the upcoming elections. Buhari, a former military head of state from 1976 to 1979, a Muslim and a Northerner, won almost 90% of the 5,000 ballots cast at the convention of the All-Nigeria People's Party that has just concluded in Abuja.

Buhari said that three fundamental things are wrong in Nigeria: a prostrate economy, corruption, and insecurity. Former Senate President Dr. Chuba Okadigbo will be Buhari's running mate. Buhari told a labor gathering Dec. 19 that he had toured the length and breath of the country and realized that the problem of Nigeria today is predominantly that of the economy. Nigerian Labor Congress President Adams Oshiomhole used the occasion to remind the former head of state that there was an alarmingly large population of hungry and angry youths, who are ever ready and willing to kill, maim, and vandalize because they have no jobs. When Obasanjo came into office, Buhari was head of a special oil fund that was being used for infrastructure development, the PTF, that was then perceived as responsible for the small amount of development that was then going on in the country. One of Obasanjo's first actions was to shut the fund down, alleging corruption.

Buhari exhibits generally a strong infrastructure focus, as shown in the Buhari Program, an infrastructure focus primarily devoted to transportation and energy. The program document overall, however, shows weakness on the question of deregulation.

The document calls for "Resuscitation and complete modernization of the railway system. Major cities to be connected with high-speed rail services over time." In other areas of transportation, the document calls for "Rehabilitation and expansion of waterways transportation, including dredging of channels, provision of ferries and jetties.... A new bulk haulage strategy to be developed; and implemented with a view to encourage maximum utilization of the railways and waterways." With respect to electricity: "Initiate and implement a national program for the expansion of electricity generation, to involve the establishment for new power generation installations, targetting an additional 10,000 MW of generated electricity."

Ivorian Generals Accused by Press of Planning Coup

Notre Voie, the official newspaper of Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo's Front Populaire Ivorien, published "suspicions" that senior military officers, led by Chief of General Staff Gen. Mathias Doué, are planning to seize power while President Gbagbo is in Paris for negotiations Jan. 14-23. Notre Voie quoted an unnamed military figure who spilled the beans and who said that Gbagbo must not go to Paris. An editorial Jan. 7 in another Ivorian daily, Fraternité Matin, said that time and intrigues are working against the government, and the generals plan to overthrow Gbagbo and declare martial law.

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