Mideast News Digest
Frenetic Diplomatic Activity Seeks To Avert Iraq War
Frenetic diplomatic activity is taking place in the Persian Gulf region, in an attempt to settle the Iraq crisis peacefully and diplomatically. A summary of meetings follows:
*Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul has recently completed his tour of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and Iran (see below).
*A Turkish delegation visited Baghdad last week, led by the State Minister for Foreign Trade, in his capacity as personal envoy of the Prime Minister.
*Ali Hassan al Majeed of the Iraqi Revolutionary Command (and cousin to Saddam Hussein), met Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak Jan. 14, after which Mubarak travelled to Saudi Arabia (see below). Speculation has it that the "voluntary exile" scenario was discussed, a scenario that Saddam Hussein rejects out of hand. Iraq's Tariq Aziz, travelling in North Africa declared that Saddam will fight to the last bullet, and anyone contemplating his stepping down, is wrong.
*A foreign-ministers-level meeting will take place in Cairo this week involving leading Arab statesEgypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Syriaand Turkey and Iran. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Arab League General Secretary Amr Moussa will also attend, according to Az Zamaan.
*Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam visited Russia beginning Jan. 14, for talks on the Middle East and Iraq (see RUSSIA NEWS DIGEST).
*Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mohsen Aminzadeh visited Moscow (see RUSSIA NEWS DIGEST.
*Syrian President Assad is to visit Teheran.
Turkish Prime Minister in Active Anti-War Diplomacy
Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul is engaged in active diplomacy to avert a war, having travelled to Syria, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, where he arrived Jan. 11. One Saudi official said of the meetings there, "We will focus on how we can get out of this crisis peacefully and quickly." On Jan. 12, Gul visited the Iranian capital, Tehran, and told Iranian officials that every country in the region "should make endeavors to avert another regional war, otherwise all the Middle East and Arab states will suffer heavy losses." Inside Turkey, popular opposition to a war against Iraq is very strong, and the government has not yet granted permission to the U.S. for deployment of American ground troops from bases in country.
Weakening of Sharon Key to Flurry of Anti-War Diplomatic Activity
A well-informed Egyptian source reported Jan. 14 that Saudi Arabia and Egypt are engaged in a major diplomatic initiative to avert an Iraq war, and that, after being inundated with months of Chickenhawk psychological-warfare to the effect that there was no way to stop an American-led invasion, a sense of optimism is emerging that war can be averted. Crown Prince Abdullah told Saudi reporters that he was personally convinced that war was "not inevitable."
Some extraordinary diplomacy is now taking place, involving a number of Arab nations: Turkish Prime Minister Gul sent a trusted emissary to Baghdad this week, for a meeting of nearly three hours with Saddam Hussein. According to the Egyptian source, the Turkish emissary spelled out a series of demands on Iraq, in exchange for Turkish non-cooperation with American war planners. Saddam Hussein has dispatched his cousin to Cairo, for talks with Egyptian officials. This followed a trip to Baghdad by a top Saudi official, and then meetings between senior Iraqi and Syrian officials near the border.
The source observed that all of this 11th-hour activity was made possible by the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is in such political trouble, over the Likud payola scandals (see INDEPTH). Without that "surprise" weakening of the Israelis and their neo-con allies and assets in Washington, it would have been far more difficult to break the war momentum, the source emphasized. "The weakening of Sharon was the number one factor," the source said. The source concluded by warning that, under the shifting circumstances, he expected some desperate action by the utopians and/or Sharon, to stage some kind of provocation or "Gulf of Tonkin" incident, to throw the momentum back to the war camp.
Intensified Diplomacy at the UN
The beginning of last week saw an unprecedented level of diplomatic activity around the Iraq crisis. On Jan. 14, U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice made a previously unplanned trip to New York, to meet with chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix, to pressure him to intensify the inspections, and begin the interrogations of Iraqi scientistsoutside the country. Blix has increasingly been saying that there is no real point in briefing the UN Security Council on Jan. 27, because he would prefer to wait until sometime in March to give a more thorough status report and assessment of other tasks the inspectors must take on.
From the meeting in New York, Blix flew on to London and Paris, en route to Baghdad. IAEA head El Baradei was in Moscow on Jan. 15, conferring with Russian officials, before he joining Blix in Baghdad this past weekend. In the midst of these meetings, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan issued his own statement, urging the U.S. not to take any unilateral action, and calling for the UN inspectors to be given more time to do their job.
Also Jan. 14, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was in Saudi Arabia for consultations with Crown Prince Abdullah. According to a well-placed Egyptian source, the meeting in Saudi Arabia was intended to prepare for Mubarak's Cairo meeting over the weekend with Ali Hassan al-Majid, the cousin and trusted emmisary of Saddam Hussein. There are widespread reports in the Arab world that the Saudis and Egyptians, in consultation with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, are trying to convince Saddam Hussein to do his own "regime change" to prevent an American invasion. Lyndon LaRouche has denounced this idea of trying to "coup" or "woo" Saddam out of power, warning that it could provide the trigger for a war that can otherwise be stopped by concerted mobilization.
Hans Blix Wants More Time
UN Chief Weapons Inspector Hans Blix says his teams need more time to complete their job of checking Iraqi compliance or noncompliance with UN resolutions insisting that Iraq destroy all weapons of mass destruction. Blix says that the massive U.S. military buildup is putting pressure on the inspectors, who might not be given the time they need, and also on the Iraqi regime.
Speaking of the buildup, Blix said Jan. 14, "I think [the Iraqis] only need look around their borders and they should realize the seriousness." He said the inspectors need months to do their job, but that either a UN decision or a U.S. military move could prevent this. The world wants Iraq to disarm peacefully, Blix said. But to do that it must provide documents, allow UN inspectors to interview Iraqi scientists in private, and show physical evidence of the destruction of facilities and weapons.
"What the show of force demonstrates to Iraq is that here is the other alternative," he said. To BBC, Blix commented, "There is a certain momentum in the [military] buildup and that worries a great many people, including myself."
Blix and IAEA chief Mohamed El-Baradei visited Baghdad Jan. 19-20, where they intended to tell the Iraqis that their 12,000-page report to the UN was not sufficient to prove WMD have been destroyed. "We need to have more evidence supplied to us. There are a great many open questions as to their possession of weapons of mass destruction, and the Security Council and the world would like to be assured that these questions be sorted out," Blix said.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri said Baghdad is ready to answer any questions by UN inspectors.
Blix also addressed the costs of a peaceful solution as opposed to a military one: "We are perhaps 250 or 300 people on the inspection side. We cost about $80 million a year. If you take the armed path, you are talking about $100 billion, you're talking about 250,000 men, you're talking about a lot of people killed and injured, a lot of damage. So I think the whole world prefers a peaceful solution if you can have one that is credible." Blix hypothesized what could happen in the event of war: "It could be that one day they will say, 'Move aside, boys, we are coming in,'" he told the BBC Jan. 13. "That's possible, but I think a great many people and a great many governments would prefer to have disarmament through peaceful means."
Regarding U.S. demands that the inspectors take scientists outside the country for interrogation, Blix said, "We don't think we should be a mechanism for defection." Interviews inside the country are planned.
The UN inspector also insisted that the Jan. 27 date is not decisive. "We can see a lot of work ahead of us beyond that date if we are allowed to do so," Blix said. AFP quoted him as saying the date would mark the beginning, not the end of the inspection work, and that another report for March was already planned (the March deadline is one specified in a 1999 UN resolution, not in Resolution 1441 passed by the UN Security Council last November), but that he does not know whether the UN or U.S. will allow the inspectors the time required.
Speaking for the European Union, Javier Solana said, "If Blix says he needs more time, then he should get more time. I don't think 27 January is the end. It is an important date, but Blix has another date in March." He said the EU was coordinating a common position on how to make this happen, and, in case the process failed, how to proceed. "A second UN resolution may be necessary, I am for that," he said.
Sharon Could Still Be Tried in Belgium for War Crimes
According to the Jan. 16 issue of the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, an amendment to the Belgian law on international war crimes would allow for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to be put on trial for his role in the massacres in the Palestinian refugee camps at Sabra and Chatila during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in the 1980s. The amendment has passed its first reading in Parliament and has the backing of all political parties. It also has the support of Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt.
The amendment would overturn the decision by the Belgian Appeals Court, which ruled that Sharon could not be indicted and put on trial because he was not in Belgium. The new amendment to the 1993 law on universal jurisdiction, stipulates that any person suspected of war crimes, "no matter where the suspect may be located," may be indicted. The amendment is expected to pass easily on its second and third reading.
In a case brought before a Belgian magistrate almost two years ago, Sharon had been accused by over 30 Palestinian refugees of having ordered the massacres, which were carried out by the Lebanese Falange. Once the amendment passes, it is expected that the case will move forward.
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