In this issue:

Turkish Military Chief Condemns U.S. Over Arrests

Turkish Warn U.S.: You Will Be Losers in Rift

Morale Among U.S. Troops in Iraq Near 'Rock Bottom'

Baghdad Resistance Now 'Guerrilla-Style Urban Combat'

Sen. Brownback Peddles Iran Democracy Bill

Kurd Leaders Demanding Oil and Cash for Continued Support

Sharon Summoned to White House for July Meeting

Israel Escalates Threats on Iranian Nuclear Program

From Volume 2, Issue Number 28 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published July 15, 2003
Mideast News Digest

Turkish Military Chief Condemns U.S. Over Arrests

Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok said on July 9 that the U.S. arrest of 11 Turkish soldiers had developed into "a major crisis of trust between the Turkish and U.S. armed forces." Speaking to reporters in Ankara, he said that Turkey and the United States would soon launch a joint investigation into the incident: "We attach great importance to Turkish-American diplomatic and armed forces' relations, but there's something that's as important as these relations. That is our national honor and the honor of the Turkish Armed Forces." He added, "I don't think this is U.S. Armed Forces policy, but I have great difficulty in seeing it as a local event."

U.S. troops from the 173rd Airborne took the Turkish forces into custody over an alleged plot to harm Iraqi Kurdish civilian officials in Kurdish-controlled Northern Iraq. Turkey has denied any such plot. The U.S. military had been holding a total of 24 people—the 11 Turkish soldiers and 13 Iraqi office staff members and security guards—Turkish officials said.

There was great anger in the streets in Ankara and Istanbul over the incident, and Turkish media almost universally condemned the arrests as an insult to Turkish pride and a long alliance with Washington.

The 11 soldiers were returned by helicopter from Baghdad on July 7 to their base in the northern Iraqi town of Sulaymaniyah. The arrests led to a weekend of intense negotiations between Ankara and Washington as the Turkish government sought the men's release. Preim Minister Recep Erdogan spoke to U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, and Secretary of State Colin Powell called Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. Erdogan called the arrests a "totally ugly incident," and a "tasteless and ugly event."

Lyndon LaRouche had been in Turkey for an official political visit June 13-18, which undoubtedly caused great consternation among the Chickenhawk faction of the Bush Administration, starting with Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz.

Turkish Warn U.S.: You Will Be Losers in Rift

As a first response to the humiliating U.S. treatment of 11 arrested Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq, Turkey has decided to launch sanctions against the American troops, according to July 9 Turkish government news wire reports. For the time being, the U.S. troops in northern Iraq are not permitted to continue logistical support through the road at Harbur, at the Turkish-Iraqi border.

This, say statements coming from the Turkish general staff, is a "grave crisis" that won't be solved easily. After a phone discussion on July 7 between U.S. Vice President Cheney and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe (SACEUR) U.S. General James Jones (USMC) was dispatched to Ankara the following day, to talk to government and military leaders.

Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul warned the Americans to be aware that, whereas Turkey would certainly suffer damage from a protracted U.S.-Turkish crisis, the main loser would undoubtedly be the Americans themselves.

Morale Among U.S. Troops in Iraq Near 'Rock Bottom'

The Christian Science Monitor reported on July 7 that morale among U.S. troops in Iraq is hitting rock bottom, and frustrated troops in Iraq are writing letters to their Congressmen to request their units be repatriated. "Most soldiers would empty their bank accounts just for a plane ticket home," one wrote, while an officer from the Army's 3rd Infantry Division in Iraq acknowledged, "Make no mistake, the level of morale for most soldiers that I've seen has hit rock bottom."

The U.S. Army is warning of the impact of multiple deployments worldwide, which could lead to a rash of departures from the service. U.S. Central Command is to submit its proposal on troop requirements and troop rotation by mid-July. Meanwhile, the Army is undertaking a study to examine the impact of the pace of operations on the mental health of soldiers and families. Colonel Charles Hoge, who is leading a survey of 5-10,000 soldiers for Walter Reed Institute, told the Monitor, "The cumulative effect of these work hours and deployment and training are big issues, and soldiers are concerned about it."

The open-endedness of deployments is lowering morale among troops and reducing confidence in leadership. One soldier wrote to Congress: "The way we have been treated and the continuous lies told to our families back home has devastated us all."

An estimated 9,000 troops from the 3rd Infantry Division, most of whom deployed for at least six months and some for more than a year—have been waiting for several weeks, without a mission, to return to the United States. In another Army unit, an officer described the troops' state of mind: "They vent to anyone who will listen. They write letters, they cry, they yell. Many of them walk around looking visibly tired and depressed.... We feel like pawns in a game that we have no voice."

Baghdad Resistance Now 'Guerrilla-Style Urban Combat'

The Washington Post, in a long front-page story on July 8, reported that Baghdad resistance is now "guerrilla-style urban combat," that has moved from the dark to daylight attacks, in a pattern that is crippling the fighting capacity of U.S. troops. The now-daily attacks use the urban landscape for concealment and flight, and are frustrating and frightening U.S. forces in Baghdad, many of whom have to drive through the city in open-sided Humvees, stand in front of government buildings, and walk through public places every day. "Sure, we have our flak jackets and our helmets—and we're always on the lookout for suspicious activity. But the depressing thing is that there's not a whole lot we really can do about those guys who are determined to try to kill us. If we've got somebody firing at us from a bus stop across the street, you can't automatically open fire on them," said one soldier. "And you don't always want to chase them in a Humvee."

U.S. commanders sought to avoid urban combat in the war, by relying on air strikes and a strategy of drawing the Iraqi Army outside Baghdad. Now, unpredictable guerrilla-style attacks are a daily feature of patrol. The attackers have become bolder, often striking in broad daylight. But they are also more selective in their targetting: Instead of attacking large, armed convoys, they now plant homemade bombs where foot soldiers patrol, or attack convoys of light vehicles and catch victims off-guard with random, point-blank shootings in public places.

U.S. troops say they are not surprised by the increasing attacks or the displays of anger among Iraqis. "They're getting tired of us," said James McNeely, a member of the D.C. National Guard. "Wouldn't you be mad if they invaded your country?"

Sen. Brownback Peddles Iran Democracy Bill

On July 7, Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kans) announced that he would be introducing an amendment to the State Department Authorization bill, a legislation called "The Iran Democracy Act," which would set as U.S. policy "to support democracy in Iran" and provide grants to private radio and TV stations that broadcast into Iran. The next afternoon, Brownback spoke to a rally of 300-400 Iranians on the West Front of the Capitol Building promising to put his support behind pro-democracy efforts in Iran, and heaping praise on President Bush for his policy towards Iran and on the student protesters on Tehran. Interestingly enough, as far as this reporter could see, none of the demonstrators had signs proclaiming support of the Mujaheddin e Khalq, designated by the State Department as a terrorist organization, nor the closely associated National Council of Resistance in Iran, unlike in the weeks after the disarming of the MeK forces in Iraq, when MeK supporters demonstrated openly on Capitol Hill. Later in the week, the Brownback amendment was added to the Senate Authorization bill by a voice vote majority.

Kurd Leaders Demanding Oil and Cash for Continued Support

In an unusual op ed in the New York Times, July 9, Jalal Talabani of the PUK and Massoud Barzani of the KDP express their full support for U.S. operations in Iraq, and confidence in a florid future. They play down the guerrilla warfare as a limited phenomenon, attributed to small numbers of Saddam loyalists.

The central issue of the op ed, however, was what they want from the U.S. now, starting with money: "One simple way to improve the economy in our part of Iraq, Kurdistan, is to ensure that the Kurds receive the money allocated to them by the United Nations oil-for-food program. It is a scandal that $4 billion destined for the Kurds sits, unused, in a United Nations-controlled French bank account because of past obstruction by Saddam Hussein and the present incompetence of the United Nations bureaucracy. The delays by the United Nations are particularly frustrating because of rules that require the money to go into a general Iraqi development fund if it isn't spent by October. We have repeatedly sought assurances from the coalition that this money will not be lost to Iraqi Kurdistan. So far, the coalition response has been unclear."

What would they use the money for? "Just a small fraction of the oil-for-food money would finance the return of many of those who were evicted, and pay for the decent resettlement of the Arabs who took over the land." They say they have been "counselling patience" to the Kurds, Assyrians, and Turkmen who want to return, and have prevented "the chaos of a flood of displaced families trying to return home." "This patience, however, is not infinite."

The other item on their list of demands, is that a federal system in Iraq be set up, "a balanced system of government with considerable local autonomy and a sovereign, federal center." Then: "The first building blocks of Iraqi federalism and democracy have already been laid in Iraqi Kurdistan." This is due to the 12 years of the no-fly zone, protected by U.S.-U.K. aircraft.

Sharon Summoned to White House for July Meeting

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will come to Washington to meet President George W. Bush during the month of July—instead of September—report government sources in Washington and Israel. While the Israelis are planning to use the meeting to force Bush to lift the pressure on them to implement the Road Map measures, intelligence sources in Washington told EIW that Bush is concerned about Sharon's failure to move the peace process forward, and will continue to pressure both sides.

Meanwhile, the neo-conservative cabal around Vice President Dick Cheney wants to drop the Road Map entirely, and is working closely with rightwing Zionist organizations, and Christian fundamentalists to try to create a "popular uprising" in the U.S. against the plan.

Israel Escalates Threats on Iranian Nuclear Program

Iran's confirmation that it has tested a ballistic missile with a range reaching to Israel, reinforces fears that the regime in Tehran represents the biggest threat to the Jewish state since the downfall of Saddam Hussein. Israel said it was "very concerned" after Iran confirmed it had conducted a final test of its Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile, capable of hitting Israeli territory. "We are very concerned, especially since we know that Iran is seeking to acquire the nuclear weapon," government spokesman Avi Pazner told AFP on July 7. "We informed our American and European friends of our concern. Everything must be done to prevent Iran from acquiring the nuclear weapon. The combination of the Shahab-3 and the nuclear weapon would be a very serious threat on the stability of the region," he added.

Iran earlier confirmed it had conducted a final test of its Shahab-3, with a range of 1,300 kilometers (810 miles), and reportedly can carry a warhead of 700-1,000 kilograms (1,540-2,200 pounds). Israel warned against the "Iranian threat" in May 2002, following Iran's previous test of the Shahab-3.

According to the Israeli daily Ha'aretz, Israeli Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon will discuss the issue when he visits Washington in mid-July. "The latest tests of the Shahab-3 confirm the concerns Israel had over the development of Iran's ballistic arsenal and fears over its intentions," Israeli analyst Mark Heller told AFP. "The real danger lies in the development of its nuclear program and Israel relies mainly on the United States to deal with this threat," said Heller, from the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. Analyst Shai Feldman said, "The Iranian test is worrying because it proves that Iran is developing missiles capable of firing arms of mass destruction on distant targets."

Both commentators nevertheless ruled out the possibility that Israel would make a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, like its 1981 air raid against the Iraqi Osirak nuclear plant. "The operational conditions are not the same. Iran has learnt lessons from Osirak. Its nuclear facilities, such as missile-launchers, are buried deep inside Iranian territory and scattered over a wide area," Heller pointed out. Feldman explained, "The geostrategic situation in the region has completely changed, with the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq. And the international community is more concerned with the Iranian nuclear threat than it was with the Iraqi program."

Since Saddam Hussein's regime fell on April 9, Iran—which U.S. President George W. Bush described in his 2002 State of the Union address as forming part of an "axis of evil" with Iraq and North Korea—has become the Jewish state's enemy number one.

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