In this issue:

U.S. Plans for Military Encroachment on Africa Elaborated

Africa Fights Privatization, Plans Big Projects, Looks to New Deal

U.S. Encouraged To Make Dangerous Intervention in Liberia

Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique in Coal and Rail Deal

Ethiopia Signs Oil Deal with Malaysia's Petronas

Zimbabwe Opposition Leader Tsvangirai Out on Bail

From Volume 2, Issue Number 25 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published June 24, 2003

Africa News Digest

U.S. Plans for Military Encroachment on Africa Elaborated

The Wall Street Journal June 10 disclosed plans to increase U.S. forces in Djibouti and set up semi-permanent forward bases in Algeria, Morocco, and possibly Tunisia, and establish smaller ones in Senegal, Ghana, Mali, and Kenya. Bases are also possible in Equatorial Guinea and Sao Tome and Principe, for up to "as many as a dozen semi-permanent bases in Africa."

"Those plans represent a major triumph for [Deputy Defense Secretary Paul] Wolfowitz," reported Ghanaweb June 11, recalling Wolfowitz's infamous 1991 Defense Planning Guidance.

J. Stephen Morrison, the leading Africa expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, favored the new Africa orientation of the Pentagon in comments to Scripps Howard June 13, but warned the Bush Administration "to devote more effort to understanding the extraordinarily complex dynamics of the continent before jumping in," in Scripps Howard's words.

The Voice of America June 15 quoted an unnamed Defense Department official as saying that the U.S. had no plans to establish its own military installations in Africa, but would like to improve access to existing military bases.

Scripps Howard reported that "one plan under consideration would establish skeleton bases in several nations where U.S. military materiel could be stored for quick retrieval by U.S. troops rushed in during a crisis." The news service quoted Gen. Jim Jones positing a sea-based military presence: "The carrier battle groups of the future and the expeditionary strike groups of the future may not spend six months in the [Mediterranean], but I'll bet they'll spend half the time going down the west coast of Africa."

But the Wall Street Journal article claimed that a U.S. base could be fully operational in Kenya within two years, with U.S. troops stationed on Kenyan soil, provided the government of President Mwai Kibaki approves. The Nation (Nairobi), however, reported June 17, "Kenya's National Security Minister Chris Murungaru yesterday denied there even was such a plan, and added: 'There is nothing like that.' And U.S. embassy spokesman Thomas Hart also denied the report,... 'We have really heard nothing to indicate any basis for such reports; there are no plans to contact the Kenyan government to request a military base,' Mr. Hart told the Nation.... At the same time, Foreign Affairs Minister Kalonzo Musyoka announced he wanted Parliament to rush through an anti-terrorism bill.... He said: 'We have no option but to pass the bill if we [are] to reclaim the tourism industry.'... Meanwhile, U.S. troops arrived in Mombasa on Saturday [June 14] for a joint military exercise with the Kenyan Navy."

Africa Fights Privatization, Plans Big Projects, Looks to New Deal

Encouraging economic signs continue to emerge in Africa, highlighted by the following recent developments:

Zimbabwe's Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa reversed himself on privatization in addressing members of the parliamentary Public Accounts Committee in the days preceding June 18. The committee was concerned about losses incurred by government-run enterprises, but Murerwa told them, "The Constitution empowers the government to continue guaranteeing loans and grants for the continued survival of the parastatals so that they can serve national interests. For example, we have to make sure that electricity, fuel and food is affordable." In his budget speech last year, Murerwa had pledged to speed up privatizations.

Zambia is refusing to allow the privatization of the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation, Zambia Telecommunications Corporation, and the Zambia National Commercial Bank, despite armtwisting by thug-"donor" institutions, according to an IPS story June 9. The IMF's representative for Zambia, Mark Ellyne, warned that Zambia risks losing "donor" support if it does not privatize the three firms, He got the rotten tomato treatment, figuratively speaking, all over Zambia. World Bank and other promised aid is already being delayed and denied. Levy Mwanawasa, Zambia's farmer-President, regards the three institutions as strategic assets. The government is committed to extending the services of these institutions to rural areas where they will not be "profitable" according to short-run private-sector calculation. Mwanawasa has the support of Parliament, which pointed out in a resolution that electricity generation and the postal service remain in government hands in Britain. The resolution was followed by some supporting demonstrations around the country.

South Africa is going ahead with plans to build more large dams. The strategy is set for Cabinet approval in October and involves 18 large-scale water projects to be completed between 2005 and 2015 that can supply up to 5.6 billion cubic meters of water per year. South Africa's reliable water yield is currently about 13 billion cubic meters. Water affairs policy manager Bill Rowlston told MPs June 18 that his department was "absolutely committed" to the plan, adding that "if we say no more dams will be built in South Africa, we will ... be condemning parts of our population to no further improvement in [their] standard of living." There is a noisy environmentalist claque in South Africa that takes its cue from the report of the 2002 World Commission on Dams (WCD). But Rowlston shrugged off the opposition, saying, "We're also very aware that much of that sentiment comes from the better-watered and better-developed Northern Hemisphere."

In Ghana, currently a captive of the Anglo-American powers, Charles Sam looks to the U.S. New Deal of the 1930s in his June 16 article, "IMF and World Bank—Friends or Foes?" in Ghana's Public Agenda, an independent weekly newspaper.

Sam attacks the decisions at the BIS in Basel and other institutions that have consistently thrown African leaders off course. The right general direction, he says, can be found by looking at the United States in the 1930s and the fact that "against the opposition of one thousand economists, the USA Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill protecting American industrial and agricultural products."

The right direction, he says, can also be found by looking at Malaysia, Korea, and Taiwan, which "did not succeed because of the free market or free trade; they used very large doses of state control and intervention in trade and investment."

"There has to be state control of the economy if Africa is to emerge from poverty and destitution which the 'free market' economy dictates." He continues: "The primary vision of every African nation should be agriculturally based; producing enough food to feed her citizens at the lowest possible prices... We can build independent economies with the local resources we have at our disposal and empower our business community to draw foreign investment into the private sector. We should pursue urgently the infrastructural network for intra-African trade. If there is no money, we can trade by barter."

U.S. Encouraged To Make Dangerous Intervention in Liberia

With the Liberian capital, Monrovia, being threatened by the flare-up of warfare between the government of warlord Charles Taylor and two other warlord armies, the U.S. is being urged by the oligarchic International Crisis Group and by the UN Security Council to intervene.

According to the Financial Times (FT) June 14, "When asked who should lead on Liberia, a diplomat from the 15-member UN Security Council said, '14 members have a clear candidate,'" the idea being that the U.S. should lead a multilateral intervention force to impose a ceasefire. "One [U.S.] official said there were proposals for the U.S. to join up to 2,000 Nigerian peacekeepers, with the U.S. running a headquarters and logistics base," according to the FT June 13.

The warfare is raging between the government of butcher Charles Taylor, the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD), and the Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL)—none better than the others. Monrovia, a city of 1 million, is swollen with terrified thousands who fled into the city June 6 from refugee camps on the outskirts, with the movement of LURD partisans into Monrovia's suburbs. But the refugees have no shelter from incessant rain in a city that is also now without clean water or electricity. IRIN's correspondent in Monrovia warned June 9, "People will soon die of starvation." Europeans, Americans, Lebanese, Nigerians, and Ghanaians have been evacuating the country by all possible means. Many fear a repeat of the savagery of the fighting in 1989-96, when Monrovia was repeatedly overrun, with horrible brutality visited on civilians.

President Taylor's government controls only three of the country's 15 counties. He has flown his family out of the capital.

Ceasefire negotiations under the aegis of the West African Economic Community (ECOWAS) in Accra, Ghana, resulted June 17 in a ceasefire and a pledge by Taylor to step down. But Taylor denied his pledge to step down upon returning to Monrovia, and the ceasefire is only the latest of many that Taylor and his adversaries have signed for tactical purposes.

Meanwhile, the U.S.S. Kearsarge (1,800 Marines, 1,200 sailors, and attack helicopters), on its way home from Iraq, has actually been diverted to Monrovia "to prepare for the possible evacuation of civilians from Liberia," according to the FT June 13. This follows President Bush's notification to Congress June 9 that an assessment team and standby response and evacuation force of 35 military personnel had been "prepositioned" in Freetown, Sierra Leone on June 7. They moved into Monrovia immediately, allegedly to support U.S. embassy security forces. Bush also told Congress, "Several fixed-wing aircraft and their aircrews have been prepositioned in Dakar, Senegal, in order to shorten the response time should an evacuation of American citizens from either Liberia or Mauritania be required." The evacuation of a country's nationals sometimes serves as cover for something larger.

But any U.S. interest in something larger is doubted by the FT, which claimed June 14, "If deployed to secure a ceasefire, U.S. troops would face a bewildering situation with an uncertain exit strategy. So far, analysts say, a substantial engagement appears a slim possibility; while there might be some sympathy in the State Department for intervention, it is far from clear that the Pentagon or the White House would agree."

Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique in Coal and Rail Deal

The Brazilian Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Industrial Development Corp. (IDC) of South Africa, and with the South African steel company ISCOR, to undertake pre-viability studies on the exploitation of the coal deposits at Moatize in the western Mozambican province of Tete, according to the Mozambican Information Agency June 16. The CVRD wants to sell Moatize coal to Brazilian steel companies, while ISCOR intends to use Moatize coal for its own four factories in South Africa.

There are vast deposits of high-quality coal at Moatize, which used to be exported through the port of Beira. But this depended on the Sena railway line, linking the mines to Beira. When this railway was extensively sabotaged by the apartheid-backed Renamo rebels in the early 1980s, it became impossible to move the coal to the coast. So the CVRD/IDC/ISCOR project involves not only mining the coal, but also rebuilding the Sena railway line. It also involves the construction of a new mineral port near Beira solely for exporting the coal. If these plans come to fruition, this will be the largest project so far for developing the potential of the Zambezi Valley.

Should the pre-viability studies now being initiated yield positive results, the three partners will form a new company that will embark on financial viability studies and carry out the project.

Ethiopia Signs Oil Deal with Malaysia's Petronas

Commenting on the newly signed agreement with Malaysian oil giant Petronas, Ethiopia's Minister of Mines Mohamoud Dirir told IRIN June 16 that discovery of significant oil deposits "would be a breakthrough for the Ethiopian economy." Exploration is expected to start in a matter of months in Gambella, in the remote western part of the country, believed to be geologically related to Sudan's nearby oil fields.

Under the deal, Petronas has exclusive rights to "explore and develop" some 15,000 square kilometers in the region. The oil company will invest U.S.$5 million in developing the infrastructure and in employing Ethiopian staff. A further U.S.$1 million will be spent on boosting the skills of the ministry and another U.S.$1 million on improving the facilities of the local community in areas such as health. Ethiopia will receive a royalty of 5% on oil produced. Dirir added that Petronas has a proven track record in Africa. This is the first time Ethiopia—whose average per-capita income is around $100 a year—has granted an exploration license. "Ethiopia is seriously committed to this project," he said.

The Malaysian company is also looking at exploration of natural gas in the southeastern part of Ethiopia—in Somali Regional State. Experts from Petronas are to carry out geological studies in the 350,000-square-kilometer Ogaden Basin, which is believed to have vast gas deposits.

Zimbabwe Opposition Leader Tsvangirai Out on Bail

Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was released on bail June 20 after spending two weeks in jail on a new charge of treason—attempting to overthrow the Zimbabwe government. But Tsvangirai was ordered not to call for President Robert Mugabe's ouster by illegal means.

South African Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota told anti-Mugabe partisans at the Cape Town Press Club June 19 that it was Tsvangirai who broke off talks with Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF to launch his recent mass action campaign.

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