Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Russian Diplomat: Iraq Inspections 'Professional,' Not Political
The Russian news agency RIA Novosti ran the headline "USA and Russian Federation assess inspection results differently," over a Jan. 9 report on the remarks of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Negroponte, and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, about the first report from the UN inspection chiefs. Lavrov said, "In the course of the inspectors' work, a number of questions have been answered, and then others solved, and now they are going to Baghdad to continue this work. I believe that this process should be seen as professional work done by specialists, who present their findings as they go forward, and I think that a political ruckus should not be raised around these reports."
Unilateral Action Against Iraq Illegitimate, Says Russian Defense Minister
Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov on Jan. 5 again reiterated that Russia would regard any U.S. military action against Iraq without UN approval as illegitimate and unjustified. Speaking in the East Siberian city of Chita, Ivanov commented that the reported U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf could be "brandishing weapons" for purposes of putting "psychological pressure on Baghdad," or could be "real preparations." He added, "I believe, however, that before making a final decision, the United States will take into account the results of the work of the international weapons inspectors in Iraq, and UN decisions based on those results." Ivanov stressed that Russia is interested strictly in reaching the goal that "there be no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq," and he denounced attempts "to pursue other goals."
See this week's EIW INDEPTH for further reports on the opposition to war and Iraq and the intensification of psychological warfare, and American military deployments.
Russian Source Denies 'Exile for Saddam' Plan
Itar-TASS Jan. 9 quoted a "highly placed" source in Moscow, who denied reports published in the German Tageszeitung about Russian involvement in pressuring Saddam Hussein to go into exile. "It is nonsense. No such talks are underway," the unnamed source said, "Why should Saddam Hussein flee his country? There are no grounds at all for the Iraqi leader to seek political asylum anywhere, including Russia."
Last week, the Foreign Minister of Belarus denied that Minsk was considering offering exile to Saddam Hussein, which was another version being circulated internationally.
The latest packaging of the "exile" scenario came in wires which seized on a remark by Russian First Deputy Chief of the General Staff Yuri Baluyevsky as being an endorsement of the option of getting rid of Saddam Hussein. What Baluyevsky said, in an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets, was this: "The military solution is not the best. As a military specialist, I am sure the Americans will crush Iraq, no question about it. But in any war, people will also be killed who should not be. I often tell American militarymen, 'You've defined Iraq as a rogue state, North Korea as a rogue state. You don't like Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong-il, and I don't know who else. But why bring the population in? Wouldn't it be simpler to remove one person, than to attack innocent people full force?"
Russian Energy Minister Meets Gulf Producers on Oil Prices
The Oil Ministers of Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed on joint efforts to prevent a sharp increase in world oil prices, when they met in Riyadh Jan. 5. Following his meeting with Russia's Energy Minister Igor Yusufov, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters, "The Kingdom and Russia agree that cooperation is necessary to ensure that there is no lack of oil supplies." He added that all producers had to cooperate to ensure a stable market.
Earlier, United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri had said that OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries) would raise output if the price of its basket of crude oils remained above $28 until Jan. 14. OPEC members have said they will increase production by up to a million barrels a day until the price comes down from the current $30 per barrel to less than $28.
Yusufov also visited Kuwait, during his visit to the region.
Russia and Japan Coordinate on Korea, Issue 'Action Plan'
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi travelled to Moscow Jan. 9-11 for talks with President Vladimir Putin, the fifth Russo-Japanese summit since Putin took office. In both their speeches and in a length Action Plan they adopted, the two leaders stressed their commitment to a peaceful settlement of tensions in the Korean Peninsula, including in the wake of North Korea's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Answering questions after his meeting with Koizumi on Jan. 10, Putin said, "We paid attention to the fact that the North Korean leadership is leaving the door open for negotiations. We count on its being through negotiations that all questions and concerns of all parties can be, and will be, settled." He pledged that Russia would do everything in its power to assist the reestablishment of full relations between North Korea and Japan, and hailed Koizumi's recent visit to Pyongyang as "a courageous and very correct, effective step."
Major emphasis in the talks and the Action Plan is on the development of economic relations. The two sides committed to exploring optimum solutions for the export of Russian fuels to Japan, including possible construction of the Angarsk (Lake Baikal area) to Nakhodka (Russian Pacific port) oil pipelinewhich is often seen, and was played up in the Financial Times of London Jan. 11, as being mutually exclusive with the Angarsk-Daqing oil pipeline under negotiation between Russia and China. The Action Plan lists more than a dozen other areas of economic cooperation, including measures to promote investment, develop flexible forms of providing credit for joint projects (Russia expressly welcomed a new form of bank credit, offered by Japan's Bank for International Cooperation to the Russian Vneshtorgbank since last March), further development of the Sakhalin-1 and -2 oil and gas projects, fisheries, forestry, atomic energy, space exploration, consultations on the function of the Trans-Siberian Railroad, and economic ties in northeast Asia generallyfrom Siberia and Russia's Far East, out to Japan.
A lengthy and carefully worded section of the Action Plan deals with the territorial dispute over the four southern Kurile Islands, which remains the obstacle to the finalization of a peace treaty between Russia and Japan to end World War II. The main thrust of this section is that talks about the matter will continue, on the basis of joint declarations dating back to the Japanese-Soviet resolution of 1956, which first suggested a compromise over jurisdiction, but that Japanese-Russian relations are too important to be stalled while waiting for a peace treaty. Putin did raise eyebrows in Russia when, in reply to a reporter's question, he went beyond the Action Plan's language about "overcoming the difficult heritage of the past," to note that while seeking a just settlement of the territorial issue, "We must take into account, what events and what decisions resulted in these islands being under Russian jurisdiction"namely, the Second World War. Russia has occupied the four islands since the end of the war.
U.S. Offers Russia Cooperation on Missile Defense
In a Dec. 30 interview with Interfax, published on Jan. 8, U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Alexander Vershbow said the U.S. is "serious" about Russian collaboration on missile defense technologies. Noting that there had been "a bit of skepticism" on the part of the Russian military regarding proposals for collaboration, Vershbow said, "Let me tell anybody from the Russian military reading this interview that we are serious."
Vershbow noted that Russia has "advanced technology, such as the S-300 and S-400 anti-air missiles, which could be developed into an anti-ballistic missile capability." Areas of possible cooperation could include early warning systems, missile interception, and "futuristic technologies," such as lasers. He stressed that the system being developed for early deployment is only in its initial phase, "so there are plenty of opportunities for joint development of the architecture of the future system."
On Jan. 9, the Russian government said it was waiting for a response from the U.S. regarding its proposal to draft a new strategic stability pact to replace the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty. This is described as a more detailed document that is based on the Bush/Putin agreement of last May.
Bitter Cold Strains Infrastructure in Russia
Russian President Putin spent time on Jan. 8-9 dealing with the disastrous effects of a deep freeze throughout northern and central Russia. Temperatures on Jan. 8 were as cold as -22 F in Moscow, down to -54 F in Murmansk. According to the Ministry of Emergency situations, over 25,000 people were without heat, most of them in the northwest. Six deaths in Moscow that night brought the number of recorded deaths from cold weather in the city this season to 239. (Thousands of homeless people live in Moscow.)
Putin chastised the governors of several northern provinces, who "should be prepared for these kinds of temperatures." The head of the Karelia region, bordering with Finland, has applied to the federal government for emergency funds to repair heating systems in the region. Some ships were stuck outside the Port of St. Petersburg, where the approaches to the harbor froze over. Putin also met today with Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, authorizing him to deploy the Army to help plow snow and deliver fuel in the Far East and in Leningrad Province around St. Petersburg.
Russian Power Company's Restructuring Postponed
Further consideration of reform of the Russian national electricity utility, Unified Energy Systems (UES) during 2003 was abruptly postponed by the Russian State Duma in mid-December. UES CEO Anatoli Chubais' scheme for a separation of UES' generation and distribution components, with privatization of the latter, has been strenuously opposed by a group of minority shareholders who accuse him of looting the company. The battle around UES intensified during the autumn, after Kremlin economic adviser Andrei Illarionov badmouthed the quality of UES plant and equipment at an investment conference in Boston. UES share prices plunged, at which point an unidentified big buyer began to scoop up the shares.
Speaking at the All-Russia Energy Forum in the Kremlin on Dec. 19, Chubais accused "a number of top oligarchs" of sabotaging the reform of UES in order to buy it up cheaply now. He claimed that the drop in UES shares by an additional $220 during the two days after the Duma's decision to postpone the reform, was in the interests of these oligarchswidely rumored to be Roman Abramovich and Oleg Deripaska, who have major holdings in the electricity-intensive aluminum sector.
The Duma decision was taken on request from the executive branch, according to members of the Duma. Well-informed observer Yuliya Latynina, however, writing in the Dec. 23 issue of Novaya Gazeta, suggested that the Kremlin's action was not designed to help out Abramovich and Deripaska. Instead, it balanced out the gain Abramovich achieved in winning the auction of a 75% state share of the oil company Slavneft, also in December. Latynina writes that these "oligarchs" were expecting the UES reform to pass on Dec. 18, and had made their major share purchases beforehand, but now are faced with a delay in being able to exploit their increased control in UES. In this analysis, the Kremlin administration's actions would fit into President Putin's well-known pattern of trying to balance among rivalling interests. This practice is not conducive to a bold or effective economic policy.
Russia Would Welcome OSCE Monitors for Chechnya Vote
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Chizhov said Jan. 5 that officials from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are welcome to attend the referendum on the future status of Chechnya, scheduled for March, as well as subsequent elections, even though Russia has not renewed the OSCE's humanitarian mission in the territory.
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