In this issue:

Wall Street Discovers Government Lying About Real Unemployment

EIR: Real U.S. Unemployment Is Actually Near 12%

More American Workers Delay Retirement

Growing Unemployment Leading to Increased Mortgage Delinquencies

Fed Official Denies Emergency Plan To Turn on Spigots

Greenspan Again Denies There Is a Housing Bubble

IMF Says, 'Don't Depend on U.S. Economic Recovery'

New York City Faces Deepest Job Cuts in a Decade

From Volume 2, Issue Number 15 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published April 14, 2003

U.S. Economic/Financial News

Wall Street Discovers Government Lying About Real Unemployment

The Wall Street Journal has discovered that official U.S. unemployment data hide real joblessness, judging by an article in the April 7 issue, "Labor Market May Be Softer than Reported." Hundreds of thousands of Americans have lost their payroll jobs during the last few months, but the official U.S. unemployment barely rose from 5.7% to 5.8% between January and March. Even the Wall Street Journal recognizes that this is impossible, and is becoming a scandal. As the Journal notes, "with all that is going wrong in the U.S. economy, economists are starting to suspect that the current unemployment rate of 5.8% ... could be underestimating the true level of distress in the labor market."

The Journal reports some ways by which the Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics "misses" the real number of unemployed. "Many laid-off workers ... are simply setting themselves up as independent consultants operating from their home offices." They are self-employed. Many of these "self-employed" consultants may work only one-third as many hours as they did when they had a job—or have no clients and thus have no work at all—but they are still counted by the BLS as employed. The Journal states that others, after months of futile search for jobs, may have become "too discouraged to look for work"—indeed, this category has risen by 360,000 workers during the past year. But the BLS has made "too discouraged to look for work" as a category within "Not in the Labor Force," and, in order to be counted as unemployed, a worker must be classified as "In the Labor Force." Thus, the "too discouraged" are not considered as unemployed.

Further, the Journal states, "some are simply opting to take what they can get, working part-time at low-wage jobs that provide some health benefits." These workers are "Part-Time for Economic Reasons." The number of such workers has increased by 500,000 during the past year.

EIR: Real U.S. Unemployment Is Actually Near 12%

EIR has determined a real unemployment level for 2003:

Official Unemployment 8.45 million
"Want a Job Now" 4.76 million
"Part-Time for Economic Reasons 4.70 million
Total Unemployment 17.91 million
Real Unemployment Rate 11.9%

Of the 8.45 million whom the BLS reports as being officially unemployed, 1.9 million, or 22%, have been unemployed for more than six months.

Meanwhile, 45% of CEOs at top U.S. companies plan to cut jobs in the coming six months, while only 9% expect to hire new workers, according to a survey released April 10 by the Business Roundtable, whose 150 member firms have a combined workforce of 10 million and $43.7 trillion in revenues.

More American Workers Delay Retirement

Some 24% of workers aged 45 and older say they plan to work longer than they expected because they cannot afford to retire—up from 15% in 2002—due to factors such as stock-market losses and rising living costs, according to the latest annual Retirement Confidence Survey. The percentage of people who said they were "not at all confident" of having enough money to retire, jumped to 16% from 10% last year.

"We have mortgage payments and credit-card debt. We can barely make ends meet," said Sunny Thomas, aged 39, who has been unemployed for more than six months, after being laid off from NCR Corp. "I'm not thinking about retirement."

Growing Unemployment Leading to Increased Mortgage Delinquencies

Mortgage delinquency rates are set to rise, due to mounting job losses and increasing housing costs, warned chief economist Doug Duncan at the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, Reuters reported April 7. Soaring heating costs, higher property taxes, driven by local government budget blowouts and rising insurance expenses, have made it more difficult for homeowners to make mortgage-loan payments, Duncan said at an MBA secondary-market conference in New York. More important, "if unemployment goes up, then you definitely have a problem," i.e., a greater rise in delinquencies.

Fed Official Denies Emergency Plan To Turn on Spigots

Responding to wire reports April 8—based on comments by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials that in the event of an unexpected shock to the system, the central bank has prepared to lend massive amounts of money directly to commercial banks, and make direct purchases of longer-term securities to increase liquidity—Federal Reserve vice chairman Roger Ferguson told reporters that such a report is an "overstatement."

Since the Fed has already been throwing a wall of money into the bankrupt banking system, in a futile hyperinflationary move, what measures could such a discussion be meant to prepare the public for?

Greenspan Again Denies There Is a Housing Bubble

Sir Alan Greenspan claimed that a drop in housing prices will not cause a "major problem" for the economy, and again denied the existence of a U.S. housing bubble, in a speech April 9 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, Calif. Greenspan insisted that only "local" bubbles exist, even as mortgage loans in foreclosure reached a record high, and delinquencies are expected to increase, due to surging housing costs and mounting job losses.

Greenspan praised former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker for instituting a policy of "controlled disintegration," through sky-high interest rates, as a process that led to the "virtual elimination of inflation from the U.S. economy."

IMF Says, 'Don't Depend on U.S. Economic Recovery'

The International Monetary Fund warned in its World Economic Outlook, issued April 9, that "a greater sense of urgency is needed in implementing policies to reduce global dependence on the United States." "It is not just the war" stalling the economic recovery, the report cautions, citing other risks—a further fall in the stock market and further IT sector collapse; a drop in U.S. housing prices; and the U.S. current-account deficit, all could cause an "abrupt drop" in the value of the dollar.

New York City Faces Deepest Job Cuts in a Decade

"Bloomberg faces fight over plan to cut New York firefighting jobs," the London Financial Times wrote April 9, in a special feature on the city's economic woes. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg last week revived his plan to cut 5,400 city jobs, "and close up to eight firefighting divisions in order to tackle a municipal budget gap of at least $3.5 billion"—a plan he'd been forced to put on hold after raising property taxes by 18% in January. "The job cuts would be the deepest in New York in a decade," wrote the FT. Bloomberg has already reduced the workforce by over 14,000 as part of his kinder, gentler "planned shrinkage"—a continuation of Lazard Freres' bankers' looting of New York (see "New York City Crisis Demands 'Super-TVA,'" EIR, Jan. 17, 2003).

On April 7, Bloomberg announced 3,400 layoffs, but the next day, he was forced to reveal that the actual number will be 5,400, if you include the Department of Education workers who will also get pink slips. The FT refers to a recent report by Moody's, saying that "New York City is facing its most serious fiscal challenges since the 1970s." Since December 2000, New York City has lost nearly 225,000 jobs. The main reason for the fiscal crisis in New York City is not Sept. 11, the paper acknowledges, but "the downturn on Wall Street," yet omits the deliberate "planned shrinkage" policy which has taken down the city.

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