In this issue:

What Russian Defense Minister Ivanov Said on Iraq War

France, Germany, Russia Launch New Initiative at United Nations

Ivashov Warns of Faked Evidence in Iraq

Russian Foreign Ministry Denounces Killings of Iraqi Civilians

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: We Are Not in This 'Coalition'

Indonesia's President Will Likely Visit Russia

Russia Will Fund Space Station Transport While Shuttle Is Down

From Volume 2, Issue Number 14 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published April 7, 2003
Russia and Central Asia News Digest

What Russian Defense Minister Ivanov Said on Iraq War

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said April 1 that a U.S. victory in Iraq was "far from certain," and he warned that the attack on Iraq is prompting Russia to strengthen its own military. Ivanov was quoted as telling Komsomolskaya Pravda that the Russian military is closely following the war in Iraq, and making conclusions related to the development of prospective weapons.

One of the bluntest statements he made concerned WMD. When asked about U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's comment that Iraq would use chemical weapons, Sergei Ivanov replied: "If he says so, it means the Americans want it. [emphasis added] I would reply by quoting the words of Blix, who said at the UN Security Council meeting on March 19: 'I am sorry that the work of the inspectors, so productive and promising this time, has failed to persuade the world community that Iraq does not have any banned materials. We planned to complete in March the solution of such issues as the presence of the anthrax virus and the VX gas, and in April the use by Iraq of unmanned and manned aircraft. We have not omitted anything, the work of the inspectors was impeded not by Baghdad, but by the situation in which Iraq has found itself.'"

Ivanov said that the Iraqis were still capable of mounting strong opposition. If U.S. troops "launch carpet bombings, Iraq won't hold out for long, but they have yet to dare doing that, because the political damage would be huge," he said. "But if they try to fight with minimal losses, accurately, as they are doing it now, avoiding big clashes, the outcome is far from certain. Iraq has quite a serious army, and it hasn't yet started to fight."

Ivanov said that Moscow opposes the war not because of its economic interests in Iraq, but out of concern for global security. "Saddam is neither friend nor brother to us, and he will never pay off debts to us," Ivanov said. "It's the question of precedent: Today the United States doesn't like Iraq, tomorrow Syria, then Iran, North Korea and then what? Everyone else?

"We are drawing some military-political conclusions, because this conflict makes us remember the words of Alexander III, who said that Russia has only two reliable allies—the Army and the Navy," Ivanov said. "While the international security system is coming apart at the seams, they must provide a reliable defense."

France, Germany, Russia Launch New Initiative at United Nations

Details of what the three governments are planning to do were not publicized as of April 1, other than their firm intent to make sure that the postwar administration of Iraq is not dominated by the United States and Britain. It cannot be ruled out that the three governments will issue another call for an immediate cessation of military operations in Iraq, later this week.

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, who, because of the escalation in Iraq March 28, called off his planned visits to Berlin, Moscow, Rome, and Madrid, met with German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer in Paris on March 31, instead. There the two Foreign Ministers made plans to meet with their Russian counterpart Igor Ivanov in Paris on April 4. French diplomatic sources are reported as having leaked that there is also a special initiative by French President Jacques Chirac, to contact other governments that are opposed to the war, for a new (though not specified) "initiative at the United Nations."

Ivashov Warns of Faked Evidence in Iraq

At a Moscow press briefing on April 2, General Colonel Leonid Ivashov, formerly with the Defense Ministry of Russia, said that so far, the Americans have failed to locate any WMD in Iraq. The so-called chemicals weapon plant, the discovery of which was trumpeted by Fox News based on reports from a Jerusalem Post reporter travelling with U.S. forces, turned out to be a normal cement plant, Ivashov added.

But, for lack of real evidence, fabricated "evidence" might be presented sooner or later, Ivashov warned, because "the USA has to find something to justify its aggression against Iraq."

Russian Foreign Ministry Denounces Killings of Iraqi Civilians

In an official statement issued March 29 under the title "In connection with the escalation of missile and bomb strikes against Iraqi cities," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman A. Yakovenko said:

"As a result of the escalation of missile and bomb strikes being inflicted on the cities of Iraq, the number of victims is growing daily, and the destruction is becoming large-scale.

"On March 28, a market in the Shual district of the capital was one of the targets. It is reported that over 50 civilians were killed, including women and children. There are dozens of injured.

"Residential districts in Mosul, Basra, Nasiriya and other cities are also being bombed. Historical sites and Islamic shrines are under threat of annihilation....

"The armed action, launched in violation of international law, is causing suffering for innocent people. It threatens to have catastrophic humanitarian and ecological consequences. UNICEF Executive Director C. Bellamy has stated, 'There could be a humanitarian catastrophe in Iraq.' Such a development of events must not be permitted.

"UNSC Resolution 1472, unanimously adopted on March 28, affirms the responsibility of occupying forces to provide for the daily needs of the civilian population."

The Foreign Ministry also put out a press release on March 29, saying that the UN had issued an emergency appeal for aid to Iraq, "in connection with the acute humanitarian situation, caused by the unilateral use of force by the USA and Great Britain." The goal is to mobilize $2.2 billion for immediate relief, through UN agencies.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: We Are Not in This 'Coalition'

Marcian Lubkivsky, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine, stated April 1 that the United States only by "sleight of hand" had declared Ukraine part of the "coalition of the willing" to attack Iraq, on the list the U.S. keeps circulating of allegedly cooperating nations. Lubkivsky said that Kiev's sending of an ABC defense unit to Kuwait was "a form of participation in the efforts of the world community to establish peace and stability in Iraq," which had wrongly been interpreted as joining the "coalition."

Indonesia's President Will Likely Visit Russia

Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri is likely to go ahead with her planned visit Russia, Romania, and Poland in April, reported the Jakarta Post on March 29. Her Foreign Affairs Minister, Hassan Wirayuda, said the planned visit had been arranged long before the Iraq crisis emerged. Hassan said she would use her meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss, among other topics, the Iraq war. The trip will be the first visit by an Indonesian President to Russia in 13 years. She will probably depart April 17 or 21, returning April 27.

Indonesia is also likely to discuss the possible purchase of weaponry from Russia. Jakarta has complained about insufficient military equipment due to a military embargo imposed by the U.S. since 1999. Russia's Ambassador to Indonesia, Vladimir Y. Plotnikov, said both countries were expected to reach seven or eight economic deals, possibly including the purchase of military hardware. Foreign Ministry sources said there are around 10 Memorandums of Understanding to be signed during Megawati's visit to Moscow.

Indonesia had planned to buy 12 Sukhoi SU-30 jet fighters and eight MI-17-IV helicopters worth $500 million in 1997, but the plan was dropped due to the economic crisis.

Russia Will Fund Space Station Transport While Shuttle Is Down

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov told a Cabinet meeting in Moscow on April 3 that extra funds would have to be provided from the Russian budget and reserves to provide extra flights to the International Space Station this year while the U.S. Shuttle fleet is grounded, in the wake of the loss of the Columbia. Russia had asked the other partners—the U.S., Europe, and Japan—to help pay the extra cost, but none agreed to do so. NASA is prohibited from giving funds to Russia due to the Iran Non-Proliferation Act.

April 2, Russian Space Agency head Yuri Koptev stated the station would have to be mothballed next year unless Russia received foreign financing. Money spent for additional Soyuz and Progress vehicles would mean that Russia could not build any additional hardware for the station. Koptev stated angrily in remarks on television, "Nobody cares whether there will or will not be new Russian modules built."

It was announced April 1 that the Expedition 7 crew for the station will be veteran cosmonaut Yuri Malenchenko and astronaut Ed Lu. They will be launched to the orbiting facility on April 26 aboard a Soyuz. The three current residents will return home soon afterwards, in the old Soyuz that has been parked at the station for the past six months as an emergency rescue vehicle.

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