In this issue:

Dr. Mahathir Writes to All Security Council Members

Malaysia Pulls Out of U.S. Cobra Gold Exercises in Thailand

U.S. Demands South Korea Back War on Iraq

Senior Australian Intelligence Analyst Resigns

War, IMF Program Send South Korean Economy Down Drain

Koreas Agree To Relink Railways in Late March

South Korean President Proposes Tunnel to Japan

China Will Draw on Work of 19th/20th-Century U.S., Canada, in Effort To Develop Its West

Rumsfeld's Posse to the Philippines Declared Dead by Gen. Reyes

From Volume 2, Issue Number 11 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Mar. 17, 2003
Asia News Digest

Dr. Mahathir Writes to All Security Council Members

Malaysia's Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, has written to all 15 UN Security Council members on the Non-Aligned Movement's stand against the impending war on Iraq. According to the New Straits Times March 9, Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar said Dr. Mahathir, as NAM chairman for the next three years, sent the letters immediately after the NAM summit on Feb. 26.

Asked about UN weapons inspectors' latest report on Iraq, Syed Hamid said Malaysia always believed that UN-appointed inspectors should be relied upon. "For the sake of world peace and stability, there is stronger reason for the UN weapon inspectors to be given more time.... In fact, all reports have shown they have not found anything that can be considered a threat. The reason [for war] given by the U.S. keeps changing ... first it is for a regime change, then it is terrorism and later for the disarmament of weapons of mass destruction.

"We have to hope for a miracle in the name of humanity. The implication of a war is far-reaching. We have to pray that there would be no war."

Malaysia Pulls Out of U.S. Cobra Gold Exercises in Thailand

An observer in the past, Malaysia agreed last year to participate with the U.S., Thailand, and Singapore in the annual exercises held in Thailand, but has now pulled out, the Bangkok Post reported March 11. Although Malaysia gave no reason, it is clear that it is in protest over the U.S. war threat against Iraq, which Dr. Mahathir has condemned in all available forums.

U.S. Demands South Korea Back War on Iraq

The U.S. has requested South Korea's support against Iraq, Blue House spokeswoman Song Kyung-hee said March 10, including a formal announcement of support for the war, dispatch of a medical unit and participation in relief efforts. Seoul is furious at the effect this will have on its relations with North Korea, not to mention with the Arab states and oil imports, a government official told the Korea Times March 11, but will have to agree or "risk further estranging our U.S. ally.... U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell made the request personally to President Roh Moo-hyun at his inauguration Feb. 25," he said, "and the request was repeated through diplomatic channels. We will issue a statement pledging our support, but so as to minimize misunderstanding in the Arab world."

Another Seoul official complained to the Korea Times that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's threat to precipitously reduce U.S. troops in South Korea is also forcing South Korea's hand. "The U.S. wants to reduce its troop presence significantly within a shorter time frame than Seoul wants, complicating our relationship, already at the lowest point in decades due to differences over North Korea," he said. "Seoul is putting a lot on the line with overt support of the U.S. war, as the U.S. only has the support of Britain, of the five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council. Also, anti-war sentiment is spreading, not only within Korea, but also worldwide, which may cost Seoul dearly for its pledge of support for the United States."

President Roh Moo-hyun March 10 in a graduation speech at the Korea Military Academy, warned the military to "prepare for a change in military status," adding: but "as long as we are fully prepared, there will be no crisis."

Senior Australian Intelligence Analyst Resigns

Andrew Wilkie, senior analyst at Australia's Office of National Assessments (ONA), resigned March 11, in protest of an Australian role in a war on Iraq. ONA directly advises Prime Minister John Howard on international issues. According to news wires, Wilkie has written an article for the Bulletin, which includes his charge that Australia is positioning itself as one of the United States' strongest allies, but without "unrestricted access to all U.S. information on this matter."

ONA Director-General Kim Jones felt compelled to issue a rebuttal, saying Wilkie worked on illegal immigration and "was not responsible for ONA's coverage of Iraq." "The views he has expressed are not those of ONA," said Jones.

A former Army officer, Wilkie told the Bulletin: "(The Iraqi) military is very weak. It's a fraction of the size it was when it invaded Kuwait in 1990. Most of what remains is poorly trained, poorly equipped, and of questionable loyalty to the regime." As for Iraqi WMD, Wilkie said these programs are disjointed, limited, and not what they used to be. He is not convinced of links to al-Qaeda, and sees a war as "totally unrelated to the war on terror." His gravest concern is that Saddam "could engineer a humanitarian disaster."

Wilkie's resignation follows those of two U.S. career Foreign Service officers, Brady Kiesling and John H. Brown, both with more than 20 years' service, who oppose this war.

War, IMF Program Send South Korean Economy Down Drain

Panic about imminent war, not only in Iraq but also with North Korea, has sent Seoul's KOSPI stock index down over 30% to its lowest in two years, from the 800 level to 530, as foreign investors, who were set up to control the market by the IMF program, now pull out their hot money. Bank of Korea Governor Park Seung and heads of the country's commercial and state banks on March 11 issued a warning at a conference in Seoul, that the North Korean nuclear issue and other geopolitical factors are having a more serious effect on the Korean economy than expected.

Ban Ki-moon, foreign policy adviser to President Roh Moo-hyun, was on Wall Street last week, meeting desperately with credit-rating agencies, including Moody's, and with Wall Street investors, to request them to actively invest in South Korea. Ban's mission is to insist that South Korea's economy is stable and that North Korea's nuclear issue will be resolved peacefully.

Not helping is a string of scandals with the SK Group and Hyundai, under investigation for illegal stock trades, mostly political charges by the opposition that they gave money to North Korea to "buy" the 2000 Pyongyang Summit between North and South Korea, and thus the Nobel Peace Prize for former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung.

Koreas Agree To Relink Railways in Late March

Officials from South and North Korea on March 11 agreed to start reconnecting two sets of railways in the east and west later this month, the Seoul Ministry of Unification said. Under an accord, after three-day talks in Kaesong, North Korea, the North agreed to provide monthly notifications of use of equipment and materials supplied by the South. Nine technical experts from the South will visit the North this month via temporary roads already connected across the DMZ, one near the west coast Seoul-Pyongyang Kyongui railway and the other near the east coast Tonghae railway. The nine will repair the Kyongui line on March 20-22, and the Tonghae line on March 24-26. The two sides will hold further negotiations on a protocol concerning the operation of trains, the Ministry said. The Kaesong Industrial Complex is a key project on the west coast railway.

South Korean President Proposes Tunnel to Japan

According to the Seoul-based Korea Times, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, at his summit meeting with Japanese Prime Junichiro Koizumi on inauguration day, Feb. 25, proposed a sharp upgrade of Korea-Japan relations. In particular, the paper said, "Roh also pointed out that an unfulfilled project to build an underwater tunnel connecting the two countries as the part of a grand railroad encompassing Asia and Europe will rekindle the interest of businesspeople, if the North's nuclear problem is resolved." This is the first mention ever in the media of this strategically critical link, which would be one of the longest bridge-tunnel complexes in the world, and change Japan's insular character forever.

Meanwhile, Korean officials urged that the Silk Road now be referred to as the "Tokyo to Pusan to Paris" railway, not just the "Pusan to Paris" railway. EIR learned in 1996 that top Japanese officials were studying this plan, but at the time it was feared by some Koreans as a route for Japanese invasion. Roh's invitation shows how much has changed.

China Will Draw on Work of 19th/20th-Century U.S., Canada, in Effort To Develop Its West

China will draw on the work of the United States and Canada in the 19th and early 20th centuries, as well as that of other nations, in its own effort to bring large-scale development to its Great Western Interior, an official announced in Beijing March 8, according to Xinhua and Associated Press.

"We will take the practices of the United States, Canada, Japan, and Italy as a reference when drafting the overall western development program, said Li Zibin, deputy director of the Office of the Leading Group under the State Council for the Development of the Western Regions, at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress.

"We'll draw on their successful experience to formulate policies geared to the actual conditions of the circumstances in China's western regions, and the overall situation of China," said Li.

"To implement such a colossal program in such a colossal area in an orderly way is an incredible challenge," Li said.

China's west is an area of 4.5 million square kilometers, with 367 million people, 29% of China's population. It has great resources, but big problems. Overall, it is thinly populated.

China must balance the ecological environment with economic growth, Li emphasized. China's west is very dry, and if attention is not paid to water management—which is the key "environment" issue in China—economic growth will not be possible in this huge region, as in Central Asia as a whole. Controlling desertification and forest and grassland protection are key issues.

Rumsfeld's Posse to the Philippines Declared Dead by Gen. Reyes

Defense Minister Gen. Angelo Reyes, testifying before the Philippines Congressional Oversight Committee, said the plan for a live combat "exercise" with the U.S. in Sulu is dead, due to widespread insistence that the Philippines' Constitution not be disregarded. Pressed on why Pentagon officials had announced on Feb. 17 that just such an illegal operation had been agreed to by the Philippines government—the same question asked of Rumsfeld on Feb. 28—Reyes said that Rumsfeld had never authorized anyone to say that. This is not true, since the anonymous spokesman who made the statement had announced that he was so authorized, and since Rumsfeld, when pressed, did not deny that he had authorized it. The entire ploy has functioned to subvert the Philippines government.

Reyes, meanwhile, is under increasing pressure to resign, accused of running the Rumsfeld game behind President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's back, and of re-launching the war against the MILF—also, perhaps, without approval of the President. President Macapagal Arroyo is now again appealing to Malaysia and Libya to help restart peace talks with the MILF, even while the Army is engaged in fierce battles with them, and while Reyes is trying to have them declared a terrorist group.

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