In this issue:

Russian Foreign Ministry: We Did Not Sign On to 'Regime Change'

Russia Criticizes Limits on Humanitarian Shipments to Iraq

Russian Officials Comment Carefully on Iraq's Cancellation of Lukoil Contracts

Rumyantsev: North Korea Lacks Capability To Make Nuclear Weapons

Russia and Iran Set Nuclear Cooperation for Next 10 Years

Government Building Attacked in Chechnya

Russian Commander in Chechnya Dismissed

Tensions Run High Between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan and China Discuss Railway Development

Armenian Media Director Killed

From Volume 2, Issue Number 1 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Jan. 6, 2003
Russia and Central Asia News Digest

Russian Foreign Ministry: We Did Not Sign On to 'Regime Change'

In year-end statements, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov stressed that Russia's collaboration with the United States vis-à-vis Iraq is channelled through the UN Security Council and circumscribed by the UNSC Resolution 1441 on Iraq's not having weapons of mass destruction. It does not encompass "regime change" or a war for some other purpose.

Ivanov took part in a round table on foreign policy, broadcast Dec. 22 on Vladimir Pozner's Vremena program on Russian national TV channel 1. Pozner asked if Russia shouldn't throw its lot in more decisively with the United States, "regarding military plans against Iraq, and take part in that," since "as an ally of the victorious side, Russia would receive a considerable part of the pie, which is an oil pie." Ivanov replied that Russia is working for the implementation of Resolution 1441, with the goal "that there be no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq." He said, "This is what we should be working for. If somebody wants to pursue other goals, those goals lie outside the framework of our interests. Why should we join a military operation, on the basis of what? For what purpose?"

Fedotov gave an interview to Itar-TASS on Dec. 26, which the Financial Times of London covered the next day under the headline, "Moscow urges U.S. not to violate international law." Fedotov "reiterated Moscow's opposition to President George W. Bush's demand for 'regime change,' arguing that there is no basis in international law for such an attempt, and that only the Iraqi people themselves should decide the fate of Saddam Hussein. Asked what Russia would do if the United States took military action, Fedotov said he preferred to concentrate on diplomatic efforts to avoid such a situation." He also warned that "there could be serious consequences in terms of a 'critical mass' of conflicts in Iraq and Israel, an escalation of terrorism, and renewed tensions in Afghanistan."

Fedotov said the UN inspectors' work was proving "constructive," and that "now there is a chance to resolve the situation in the political sphere," adding that there is now the prospect that sanctions could be lifted by the end of July 2003.

Russia Criticizes Limits on Humanitarian Shipments to Iraq

In the last week of 2002, the United States pushed through new restrictions on the list of products that are allowed to be supplied to Iraq. The UN Security Council adopted a resolution amending the list, at U.S. insistence, but with Russia abstaining.

A Russian Foreign Ministry press release dated Dec. 31 said that the Ministry protested the inclusion of "not only dual civilian-military use products, but also exclusively humanitarian goods like medicines." It also objected to tougher restrictions on Iraqi acquisition of civilian transport aircraft. With embargoes against Iraq in effect since 1990, the Foreign Ministry release said that "the UN humanitarian program is the only way to meet the basic requirements of the population of Iraq and to maintain the country's social and economic infrastructure." It recalled that the humanitarian program is a temporary measure, not at all an alternative to the full-fledged development of Iraq, which will require the lifting of sanctions.

Russian Officials Comment Carefully on Iraq's Cancellation of Lukoil Contracts

Last month's cancellation by Iraq of its contracts for the Russian private oil company LUKoil to develop the Qurna oilfields, was widely discussed by commentators in the West—based on remarks by an executive from another Russian oil firm, Zarubezhneft—as retaliation for LUKoil's engaging in discussions with Iraqi opposition figures, about protection of its interests in a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. Articles in the Russian press tended to treat the event more as a setback to LUKoil, in the context of that company's other recent troubles, such as being elbowed out of the bidding to acquire a 75% stake in Slavneft, an oil company auctioned in December. (The government's share of Slavneft was bought by Sibneft, the company of Chukotka Governor Roman Abramovich, who has been on a political influence and asset acquisition offensive.)

In his Dec. 22 appearance on Vremna, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov brushed aside a question about the cancellation of the contracts, saying that problems between LUKoil and Iraq (of non-implementation of the contracts, which LUKoil attributes to the UN sanctions regime) "arose two or three years ago, and are not connected with the current situation." Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov, asked during his Dec. 26 interview with Itar-TASS if the cancellation of the LUKoil contracts had damaged state-to-state relations, replied, "It certainly did not improve them." But Ivanov stated, "I would not define our current policy towards the situation around Iraq, through the prism of LUKoil."

Also on Dec. 22, the Iraqi Oil Ministry issued a statement, asserting that the contract to develop the Qurna-2 deposit has been earmarked for Russia and asking that a different Russian company be named for the job (according to Russian press reports). In the Moscow Times of Dec. 25, analyst of Russian business-clan conflicts Yulia Latynina wrote, under the headline "LUKoil Thrown to the Dogs," that Iraq's announcement that any Russian oil company other than LUKoil would be welcome into the Qurna consortium, reflected awareness of "a new industrial war" in Russia, in which LUKoil is in a weak position.

Rumyantsev: North Korea Lacks Capability To Make Nuclear Weapons

Addressing a press conference on Dec. 27, Russian Atomic Energy Minister Aleksandr Rumyantsev gave an assessment contrary to that of the United States, saying that North Korea lacked the ability to produce nuclear weapons. "From a professional's point of view," said Rumyantsev, "I cannot tell you what the status of the nuclear plants in Korea is, but, in general, there are no serious nuclear technology breakthroughs in North Korea, because these technologies call for the development of industry to support them." North Korea's impoverished economy could not afford such a program, according to Rumyantsev.

Russia and Iran Set Nuclear Cooperation for Next 10 Years

The occasion for Russian Atomic Energy Minister Rumyantsev's Dec. 27 press conference in Moscow was his return from a visit to Iran on Dec. 23-25, to inspect the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is being built with Russian assistance. The plant is in the final stages of construction, Rumyantsev reported, and will "start dry runs within the next year and a half or two years, before being hooked into Iran's power system." Rumyantsev signed an accord with his Iranian counterparts, to accelerate the Bushehr construction schedule. They also finalized an agreement on Russia's supplying uranium for Iran's nuclear industry during the next 10 years, with the spent nuclear fuel being returned to Russia for reprocessing. The latter point had not been explicitly agreed on hitherto.

Rumyantsev travelled to Iran with a Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade Vladimir Karastin and a delegation from his Ministry, which was preparing the fourth intergovernmental commission meeting on trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Iran. Both Rumyantsev and Karastin negotiated with Reza Agazadeh, Iran's Vice President and chairman of the National Nuclear Energy Organization. Karastin told Kommersant daily that Russian-Iranian trade is set to exceed its 2001 level of $950 million, expanding into Russian construction of gas-fuelled power stations and pipeline construction, and construction of a passenger aircraft plant in Iran.

Government Building Attacked in Chechnya

The death toll has risen to over 80 in the Dec. 27 truck-bombing of government headquarters in Grozny, Chechnya, which had been one of the few reconstructed buildings in that devastated city. Two trucks drove at high speed through the security cordon around the administrative building, which housed the government loyal to the Russian federal state. Deputy Prime Minister Zina Batyzheva and Security Council Secretary Rudnik Dudayev were reported to be among the wounded.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's representative for the Southern Federal District, Victor Kazantsev, blamed "irresponsibility" on the part of security officials in Chechnya. The pro-Moscow Chechen leader Akhmed-hadji Kadyrov also cited inadequate security. There were reports that the trucks got through an outer perimeter by displaying official passes, obtained from the Russian military and/or the Chechen administration.

Russian Commander in Chechnya Dismissed

General Colonel Genadi Troshev was removed as commander of the Russian North Caucasus Military District on Dec. 19, by decision of President Putin. On the previous day, Troshev said in public that he had refused a transfer to the Siberian Military District, posed to him by Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, because to leave the post where he has commanded during the past three years would be "a betrayal of the Chechen people." Kremlin spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky called these remarks "unacceptable," since "generals should not publicly discuss suggestions and orders from the Defense Minister."

One week later, Gen. Col. Yevgeni Bolkhovitin was fired as chief of the North Caucasus Directorate of the Federal Border Guard Service.

Russian analysts have published unsubstantiated interpretations of Troshev's dismissal as linked with everything from pending shake-ups in the Defense Ministry and General Staff (Troshev having been closely associated with Chief of Staff Gen. Anatoli Kvashnin) to political warfare among economic clans in Russia. What is certain, is that the shake-up in the south comes at a time of intense debate over how Russia's goals and policies in Chechnya should change, after the Moscow hostage-taking of October 2002 and the Dec. 27 Grozny bombing.

Tensions Run High Between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Boris Shikhmuradov, the former Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan, was either arrested (according to the government) or turned himself in (according to a statement web-posted in his name) on Dec. 26, having been accused by the government of masterminding an assassination attempt President S. Niyazov on Nov. 25. Shikhmuradov was hastily tried, convicted, and sentenced to life imprisonment, on Dec. 30. A videotaped confession was televised. In a statement posted on an opposition web site with which he has been associated, Shikhmuradov said that he had been in the country for a month, taking refuge in the Uzbek embassy during the final week before his surrender, which the statement said he undertook in order to stop mass arrests of opposition figures and their families. Much about the affair remained murky, however, including the authenticity of either statement.

Commenting on tensions throughout the Central Asia-Afghanistan area, a senior Russian orientologist told EIR on Dec. 23: "Watch, in particular, the new problems between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The Uzbek Ambassador was just expelled from Turkmenistan. He was accused of supporting the former Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister, who has now become the leader of the opposition abroad, to Turkmen President Niyazov, generally known as 'Turkmenbashi' [Father of all the Turkmens]. This comes after the reported assassination attempt against Niyazov, which I doubt really happened."

The Russian source went on: "The border relations between the two countries are bad, there is conflict between the two over border areas that are rich in oil and gas, and there is tension because of Afghanistan, since the Turkmenistan regime has always been favorable to the Taliban, and the Uzbeks violently against the Taliban. Meanwhile, the economic and social situation in both countries is extremely bad, so they are both using each other as convenient foreign enemies, to divert attention." At the same time, he observed, the situation in Afghanistan itself is deteriorating by the day, and "will get worse and worse. This is not surprising; only the Americans, who know nothing about Afghanistan, ever thought it would be otherwise."

Kazakhstan and China Discuss Railway Development

The establishment of a rail link, only 40 kilometers long, between eastern Kyrgyzstan and western China, is in the interest of Kazakhstan, which thereby gains direct access by rail to western China. The importance of having a direct rail link with China was emphasized by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, at the conclusion of three days of talks in Beijing Dec. 26.

Nazarbayev welcomed agreements to build $400 million worth of diesel locomotives at Dunfan Electric in China, for the Kazakh State Railways, and provide delivery of 2 million tons of Kazakh steel to China, as a step forward in mutual industrial cooperation. Nazarbayev also said, "Kazakhstan is interested in supplies of fuels, electricity, railway materials, foodstuffs, etc., to the markets of China. Our strategic interest is for mutual benefit from the transport capacities of both countries. We would like to have our products access the southeastern Chinese ports, and the markets of India and Pakistan through the territory of China. At the same time, China has the option of economic cooperation with Europe, through Kazakhstan."

Armenian Media Director Killed

Tigran Naghdalian, chief of Armenian State Television and Radio, was fatally wounded by a single shot in the back of his head, as he left his parents' apartment in central Yerevan, armenialiberty.org reported Dec. 29. Rushed to the hospital, he died on the operating table.

President Robert Kocharian was quick to condemn the murder, saying that it was aimed at undermining Armenia's "stability and progress." He said that those who ordered it "have thrown down a gauntlet to the entire society" and vowed to "do everything" to bring the perpetrators to justice. "The crime will be forgiven neither by me, nor by the public," he said.

Naghdalian, who had headed the state-owned Armenian Public Television since 1998, was a staunch supporter of Kocharian and a harsh critic of his political opponents.

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