In this issue:

U.S. and China Hold Military Talks for First Time in Bush's Presidency

Australian Gestapo Law Defeated, Thanks to LaRouche Associates

South Korea Laying Rail in DMZ; More Cooperation with Russia Underway

Indonesia and Representatives of Free Aceh Movement Agree To 'Cease Hostilities'

Background: Aceh, a Long History of Defiance

Armitage: Southeast Asian Countries May Get 'Panama' Treatment

Bomb Explosions in Northern Bangladesh Kill at Least 20

Malaysia May Build High-Speed Train Link from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore

From Volume 1, Issue Number 41 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Dec. 16, 2002
Asia News Digest

U.S. and China Hold Military Talks for First Time in Bush's Presidency

The U.S. and China have reopened military talks for the first time since the Bush Administration came into office in January 2001. The talks, begun by the Clinton Administration, were scrapped after the conflict over the U.S. spy plane in April 2001, with anti-China rumbling from Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and the utopians. Now, despite neoconservative ranting, Undersecretary of Defense Douglas Feith, a leading warhawk, met last week in Washington with Gen. Xiong Guangkai, Deputy Chief of the Chinese Military General Staff, in the first of the annual sessions, called Defense Consultative Talks. Notably, the New York Times of Dec. 10 made the point that "the White House urged the Pentagon to renew the talks."

Feith reported that both sides agree on a denuclearized Korean peninsula, and that China declared they were no longer aiding North Korea's missile program, while the two sides "usefully" discussed several other issues. General Xiong requested to meet with President Bush's National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, but it was not clear if the meeting took place.

In Beijing, the government released a White Paper called "China's National Defense in 2002" on Dec. 9, the day before the talks in the United States. The paper calls a new world war "unlikely," and praises the cooperation among world powers since 9/11. The paper says the world is "far from tranquil," however, since the "old international political and economic order, which is unfair and irrational, has yet to be changed fundamentally." It also points to a "new serious disequilibrium in the balance of military power" between developed and developing countries. It would appear likely that these issues were brought up by Gen. Xiong, although he chose not to speak with the press after the meeting with Feith.

Australian Gestapo Law Defeated, Thanks to LaRouche Associates

The law to create a kind of Gestapo or secret police in Australia failed to pass the Federal Parliament, thanks to mobilization by the Australian associates of Lyndon LaRouche. The failure of Australia's fascist police-state bill, which was to transform the Australian Security Intelligence Agency (ASIO, Australia's MI5) into a secret police force to fight "terrorism," was unexpected, and occurred despite a marathon 27-hour-straight session to try and force it through.

Instead, the bill has become deadlocked, after being heavily watered down by 38 separate amendments in the Senate, which amendments were then rejected by Prime Minister John Howard's Liberal Party government in the House of Representatives. During the marathon session, on the final sitting day of the year, the ASIO bill passed back and forth between the House of Representatives and the Senate a record number of times, as the Opposition Labor Party and minor party-controlled Senate continued to insist on its amendments, and the government continued to reject them. Finally, Attorney-General Darryl Williams, the John Ashcroft of Australia, and the architect of the bill, moved a motion that the bill be "laid aside," accusing the Labor Party of failing to protect the security of Australia's citizens.

These events sparked an extraordinary and acrimonious exchange between Prime Minister Howard and Opposition Leader Simon Crean, each of whom tried to claim that the other was failing to protect Australia's security over the Christmas holiday season. This suggests how high are the stakes around the bill, because ordinarily neither the PM nor Opposition Leader ever engage in debates over bills, leaving it to their ministers and shadow ministers.

There is no doubt that the reason for this amazing defeat has been the year-long mobilization led by the Citizens Electoral Council, the LaRouche co-thinker organization in Australia. The Labor Party opposition did not oppose this bill because of a principled commitment to civil liberties; in fact, a state Labor Party government has recently rushed a new police powers bill into law that in many respects is even worse than the ASIO bill. The difference was that the CEC-led mobilization applied the blowtorch to the Labor Party, and forced them to take a position they otherwise wouldn't have. Even more remarkable, the law failed to pass in the wake of the Bali, Indonesia bombing two months ago, in which 87 Australians were killed, and in the wake of the enormous media and government-led hysteria following that. The defeat still may be only temporary, but the next time this bill comes before Parliament will be February 2003, a full year after it was first tabled—when it was expected to be passed within weeks.

South Korea Laying Rail in DMZ; More Cooperation with Russia Underway

The Ministry of Construction and Transportation in South Korea said Dec. 11 it will start actual rail installation inside the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) Dec. 12, on the east coast Kyongui (Seoul-Pyongyang-Shinuiju) railway line, after they completed de-mining land mines and preparing the roadbed. Stories are circulating in Seoul that the first train could run from South to North Korea by the New Year.

Some 35 Russian railway experts are meanwhile in North Korea, conducting joint inspections of rail structures on the North's main west coast line from the major port of Wonsan to Mt. Kumgang near the DMZ, reported Pyongyang TV. "Workers from both countries are examining the technical status of railway structures, including stations, roadsides, and railway tunnels, to lay the technical foundations for the improvement and modernization of the Tonghae railway," the broadcaster said. The inspection is taking place in the context of a memorandum of understanding on the "improvement and modernization of the Tonghae railway" signed by both Russia and North Korea.

In Seoul Dec. 10, Russian Deputy Railway Minister Vladimir Sazonov announced plans to form an international consortium to link the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) with the Trans-Korean Railway (TKR), as soon as Moscow completes a feasibility study on the reconstruction of the North Korean section of the TKR early next year. Sazonov was in Seoul for the second meeting of the Korea-Russia Transportation Cooperation Committee. He stressed that despite controversy over North Korea's nuclear program, the TKR project and other economic cooperation projects with the North should go on. "The railway cooperation program has the potential to draw North Korea into the international community," he said. "Halting such projects could drive the North further into isolation." Sazonov was Russian chief delegate to the North Korea-Russia railway meeting in Pyongyang in October.

Indonesia and Representatives of Free Aceh Movement Agree To 'Cease Hostilities'

Indonesia and representatives of the Free Aceh Movement agreed to "cease hostilities" at a meeting sponsored Dec. 9 by the Geneva-based Henry Dunant Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue. This 26-year conflict is the longest-running in Southeast Asia—even longer than the Moros in the Philippines. Although previous ceasefires had broken down repeatedly in the past two years, since February of this year, intensive talks have been underway; they resulted in a breakthrough in May in which both sides agreed, in principle, to hold elections in 2004 as part of an overall peace plan.

Significant international muscle is behind the agreement, as well as pressure from the Acehnese population itself, many of whom took part in a mass peace prayer service at the principal mosque in the provincial capital of Banda Aceh, while the relevant parties were signing the accord in Geneva. Among those participating in bringing about the signing are U.S. Gen. (ret) Anthony Zinni, former Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan, and Budimir Loncar, former Foreign Minister of Yugoslavia in 1992, before that nation shattered.

Background: Aceh, a Long History of Defiance

Aceh emerged as a sovereign state in the 16th century. When the Dutch invaded, it took them 30 years to subdue the Achenese, who have never fully ceded their claim of independence, and who were the first to support and join Indonesia's fight for independence from colonial rule. In the 1970s, enormous oil and gas reserves were discovered. Under President Suharto, Aceh's independence claim led to the imposition of a military state of emergency, in which 10,000 reportedly died over a decade, the majority of them civilians. Even as the envoys were signing the accord on Dec. 9, at least four civilians were killed, and six arrested. Estimates are that 1,200 have been killed in the past year.

The Dec. 9 accord calls for a joint security committee to monitor the ceasefire by a combination of 150 Acehnese, Indonesians, and foreign monitors, the latter expected to include neighboring Thais and Filipinos. It is a major concession for Indonesia to allow foreign monitors within Indonesia. The Free Aceh Movement has two months to designate where their weapons will be stored, and five months to deposit those weapons, after which only the Swiss mediators will control those sites.

Finally, under the conditions of the accord, Aceh will control 80% of revenues generated in the state under the terms of a regional autonomy mandate adopted by the Indonesia Parliament and President. And, although there is no "smoking gun" evidence of linkage between the accord and an IMF decision Dec. 9, it is notable that IMF released the next $365-million loan tranche to Jakarta that same day.

Armitage: Southeast Asian Countries May Get 'Panama' Treatment

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said that Southeast Asian countries may get the "Panama" treatment, referring to the 1989 U.S. military invasion of Panama to arrest Gen. Manuel Noriega. Hundreds of civilians were killed and injured by the U.S. invading force in the unprecedented action.

Armitage made these remarks while fully backing Australian Prime Minister John Howard's threat of preemptive attacks. According to Agence France Presse Dec. 10, Armitage spoke to the Australian Financial Review before he left on a trip to Japan, South Korea, China, and Australia. Asked about Howard's threats, he said, "For someone to talk about preempting danger is a statement of the obvious. It was also a wake-up call to some neighbors that they need to better police themselves and rid themselves of the scourge of terrorism."

He said preemption has long been in the U.S. policy arsenal, adding: "We used it most recently in Panama 10 years ago. We went in there in a preemptive way; that's not new." Armitage also described Australia as "fantastically supportive" of the global war on terror and the campaign to disarm Iraq. "I don't think I need to ask Australia for very much," he said.

Bomb Explosions in Northern Bangladesh Kill at Least 20

A series of bombs went off in a movie hall in northern Bangladesh Dec. 7, killing at least 20 people and injuring hundreds more. The simultaneity of explosions in a normally relatively calm part of Bangladesh, suggests that it was an organized effort. However, no group has claimed reponsibility yet. Since then, a few bombs in other move halls in northern Bangladesh have been found and defused.

Bangladesh's Interior Minister Altaf Hussain initially claimed that it was the handiwork of al-Qaeda. Within 48 hours, under intense pressure from his Cabinet members, he not only withdrew his statement, but went on to say that al-Qaeda does not have a network inside Bangladesh. However, all available intelligence information indicates otherwise.

The government of Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has rounded up some senior local politicians belonging to the Awami League, her government's main opposition, and has accused them of the mayhem. It is highly unlikely that such is the case, and it seems that the government in the capital, Dhaka, does not intend to solve the mystery and apprehend the killers.

On the other hand, the Harkatul Jihad-e-Islami (HUJ) has built a strong network within Bangladesh. They have systematically campaigned against the movies and dances held in Bangladesh, activities which they charge are anti-Islam and represent "Hindu" culture. HUJ came out of the Harkatul Ansar in Pakistan, as did the Harkatul Mujahideen. Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has not banned these groups, although the U.S. State Department identified HUJ as a terrorist outfit. In fact, former President Bill Clinton had to curtail his trip to Bangladesh in 2000, following intelligence information that the HUJ had set up a plot to assassinate him during his visit to a village near to Dhaka.

HUJ would have been the automatic suspect in these bombings except for one puzzle: Why would they commit such a horrendous crime on the Muslim holy day of Eid al-Fitr, which brings to a close the Muslim holy month of Ramadan?

Malaysia May Build High-Speed Train Link from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore

According to the Dec. 10 issue of the Malaysian publication The Star, Datuk Mohd Nadzmi Mohd Salleh, head of Express Rail Link (ERL), which operates Malaysia's only high-speed train—between the KL City Air Terminal in Kuala Lumpur and the KL International Airport in Sepang—has said that the Kuala Lumpur/Singapore line would be a viable project given the current air travel passenger volume between the cities. He suggested that the line be modelled on Europe's Eurostar and Japan's Shinkansen (Bullet Train).

ERL electric trains have a cruising speed of 160 kph and a top speed of 172 kph, making them the fastest trains in the ASEAN region. 'High-speed trains may take one-and-a-half hours to arrive in Singapore from Kuala Lumpur and may not take too much time compared with air travel,' he said, adding that the rail link would supplement the existing air travel services.

Nadzmi said that China was more ambitious in its rail projects, as it was implementing super-fast trains (with speeds of up to 570 kph) using magnetic levitation (maglev) technology, to link up Shanghai's new international airport in Pudong district. There was no mention of Malaysia considering building a maglev, however.

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