In this issue:

First Continuous Trip Down the Mekong in 136 Years

Indonesia/Germany Trade Science Education for Debt

Khmer Rouge Leaders Willing To Testify to Truth Commission

U.S. Plans New Military Operation in Philippines

Philippines Considers Protectionist Measures for Steel, Farm Sector

New Light for Burma/Myanmar

From Volume 1, Issue Number 40 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Dec. 9, 2002
Asia News Digest

First Continuous Trip Down the Mekong in 136 Years

Starting in Kunming, Yunnan Province, China on Nov. 2, and ending in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (formerly Saigon) on Nov. 18, an 8.8-ton, 13-meter, 24-seat hovercraft boat became the first boat to travel the entire navigable length of the Mekong River without portage to circumnavigate numerous rapids and other obstructions, since a team of French explorers attempted to trace the origins of the Mekong in 1866, under horrendously difficult conditions.

The expedition, reported in the Phnom Penh Post, was a joint venture of Diethelm Travel and the Brooker Group business consultants, as a "one-off" adventure. The director of Diethelm said that its purpose "was a demonstration of the cooperative spirit among the six members of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)—Yunnan (China), Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam." Appropriately, the trip began one day ahead of the first-ever summit of the GMS countries, in Phnom Penh on Nov. 3, followed by the eighth ASEAN summit Nov. 4-5.

The trip was originally planned for 1997, but was derailed by the economic crisis. In April 2001 it was delayed again by environmentalists and others. Only two paying passengers were aboard—at a cost of $7,700 per head. Both passengers agreed, "What is the price of a dream come true?"

Indonesia/Germany Trade Science Education for Debt

Indonesia signed the first debt swap deal with Germany, trading debt for science education. Although the amounts are relatively insignificant compared to their total debt, the idea is promising. According to the Dec. 4 Jakarta Post, Indonesia will build more than 510 new training centers for science teachers in 17 provinces, beginning early next year, as part of a 25.6-million-euro debt-relief deal with Germany. The program will be directly linked to the ongoing Indonesian-German development cooperation project (SEQIP), which focusses on the improvement of science teaching and learning at 33,000 schools. The project is jointly run by the Germany financial institution Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (KFW), the German non-governmental organization GTZ, and Indonesia's Ministry of Education. The deal is Indonesia's first debt swap deal and helps reduce the staggering foreign debt total, although minimally. Fifteen creditor countries have offered such a mechanism.

And in a second, near-completed agreement, Germany will waive debt of 23 million euros to help Indonesia deal with AIDS/HIV.

Khmer Rouge Leaders Willing To Testify to Truth Commission

Former Khmer Rouge Prime Minister Khieu Samphan and Nuon Chea, who was Brother Number 2 (the second most powerful position) in the Khmer Rouge hierarchy, have said they are prepared to testify before a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, based on South Africa's model, rather than a UN-backed genocide tribunal. Cambodia's sitting Prime Minister, Hun Sen, has consistently favored such a commission over a UN trial, as a better path to national recovery from a holocaust that claimed between 1.3 and 2 million citizens, or at least one out of five citizens. Western leaders, many of whom share responsibility for the genocide which occurred during the era of the Vietnam war and its aftermath, including secret wars in Southeast Asia, are anxious for a narrow, Western-controlled trial, limited to trying Cambodians, but with no interest in getting at the truth.

Negotiations for a UN trial began in June 1998, but broke down earlier this year. A new attempt to jumpstart the process is expected in December with a General Assembly vote that would give Secretary General Kofi Annan a new mandate to renegotiate the terms of a tribunal.

Khieu Samphan told AFP that he and other senior leaders would be prepared to give evidence to a commission on the internal workings of the ultra-Maoist regime, headed by the late Pol Pot, who held the title of Brother Number 1 in the Khmer Rouge, but warned that a genocide trial ran the risk of sparking "retaliation."

U.S. Plans New Military Operation in Philippines

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has directed the Pacific Command and Joint Chiefs of Staff to draw up plans for a sequel to the Balikatan-02 counter-terror training mission that American forces carried out on Basilan Island in the southern Philippines earlier this year, and to extend that mission to Jolo, where the Abu Sayyaf terrorist gang is believed to be regrouping.

The new training operation could involve 300 to 400 American troops, and could begin as early as January. It reflects concern that the earlier Balikatan training mission failed to quell such movements. The new operation would shift hundreds of troops scheduled for classroom or routine training in Luzon, to a combat zone in the south, involving American special forces, Army and Marines, over much of next year, unnamed officials said.

No decisions have been made on the proposal, but Adm. Thomas Fargo, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, is due to meet Rumsfeld in Washington in the next few days. An unnamed White House official reported that President Bush spoke to Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo two weeks ago about terrorism issues. "The Philippine military has asked to extend the Basilan model to Jolo," said an unidentified senior American military official.

Philippines Considers Protectionist Measures for Steel, Farm Sector

The Philippines is considering a tariff shield for its National Steel Corp. (NCS,) as part of a rehabilitation scheme for the troubled company. In addition, the country's new Agriculture Secretary-designate, is looking at protectionist measures for farm production.

Manila's creditor banks, NSC's new majority shareholders, are pressing for 10-15% tariff protection on finished products to recover an edge against foreign dumping in the Philippines' local steel market. Without the tariff shield, NSC will go down the drain again, creditors said. Officials said the government is initially inclined to restore a tariff of 3% on steel imports, that it had recently cut to a mere 1%. The tariff was slapped on imported wire rods used by local steel companies to produce nails, nuts, and bolts, chicken wire and barbed wire. NSC does not produce wire rods, but competing steelmakers import them to make reinforcing bars made of steel billets, which are a major product of NSC. NSC used to be the country's largest billet producer, with total output of 300,000 metric tons annually. Among NSC's foreign investors is Malaysia's government-owned Danaharta, which holds a 20% stake in trust of NCS.

On Dec. 3, Philippines Business World reported that Agriculture Secretary-designate Luis P. Lorenzo, Jr. outlined his plans for the local farm sector, including a protectionist stand for major crops—rice, corn, and sugar. He told reporters that farmers need government support to enhance competitiveness in a liberalized trade environment. Support includes not only state programs for the farm sector, but also keeping tariff rates for major local commodities at current levels.

The government charges 50% tariff on rice imports and monopolizes rice importation. By next year, the private sector will be allowed to import rice, at a volume quota to be set by the government. Corn imports are subject to 35% duty if imported within the minimum access volume quota. Imports outside the quota are charged 65% duty. Imported sugar has a 50-60% tariff to protect the local sugar industry.

"We need to protect our farmers on two counts," Lorenzo said. "One is that it will be a temporary measure and we have to make sure we have a long-term solution that can raise productivity. Second, we have to protect our farmers as long as the country that competes ... with us continues to give subsidy."

New Light for Burma/Myanmar

Myanmar's long-term dictator Ne Win died this week at age 91 or 92, an event that could and should open up new opportunities to end the country's isolation, imposed from within and from without.

Ne Win, one of the "Group of 30 comrades" of Burma's independence leader, Aung San, seized power in 1962, launching "Burma's road to socialism," which included an unhealthy mix of numerology and bad economics. On several occasions, he outlawed currency notes denominated in "unlucky numbers" and multiples thereof. Such practices thoroughly undermined the prospects of Burma, which in the 1960s, along with Indonesia, was considered one of the nations with the greatest potential for rapid economic development in all of Southeast Asia.

Ne Win was "retired" in 1988, after one of his "unlucky currency" revisions, shortly before the student demonstrations which triggered elections won by the party of Aung San's daughter, Suu Kyi. However, the results of the election won by Suu Kyi were ultimately annulled. Since his forced retirement, Ne Win's family has retained significant clout, up until Ne Win's daughter, son-in-law, and three grandsons were charged with an attempted coup d'etat; the men were sentenced to death sentence on Sept. 26, 2002.

Whatever the fate of Ne Win's family, Burma is a bit freer today.

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