Asia News Digest
Zoellick Pushes Singapore Free Trade Model
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick is using the Singapore/U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as a wedge to extract other bilateral FTAs under "competitive liberalization." This inventive concept means telling each nation that, now that Singapore has signed, they had better sign up as well or lose their U.S. market. Indonesia is the first stop for Zoellick's "economic gunboat diplomacy," where he announced the setting up of an "independent team" to study the feasibility of a U.S./Indonesisa FTA. As the Jakarta Post reported Nov. 26, the visit "underscores Washington's intent to push open the biggest market in Southeast Asia." The Post also noted, however, that opening to U.S. agricultural exports could be a disaster for Indonesia's farmers, as also the service sector. Indonesian Chamber of Commerce chief Soy Pardede said that "the government must ensure that Indonesia will not end up only serving as a market for the U.S."
In fact, the Singapore FTA is not a "done deal," as Zoellick would make it seem. The Singapore Straits Times, normally a voice for London and Wall Street in Asia, sounded downright republican on Nov. 26, calling for the government not to give in to the last demand coming from the U.S.that they renounce their sovereign right to impose currency and exchange controls in a crisis.
Urban Unemployment in China To Reach 10 Million in 2003
Urban unemployment in China is expected to reach a record 10 million by next year, according to Chinese labor experts. "The problem of job shortage coupled with an excess labor supply will put the greatest-ever pressure on the country's overall employment situation," said Mo Rong, deputy director of the Institute for Labor Studies at the Ministry of Labor and Social Security.
A combination of factors will "inevitably" push the urban jobless rate higher than the 3.9% recorded at the end of September. That is 7.25 million unemployed.
Official unemployment figures do not include more than 6 million laid-off workers from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), who are retained on payrolls, but do not work and actually get welfare benefits.
"If millions of people join the jobless army at the same time and you are not able to offer enough jobs, the unemployment rate will certainly see a sharp rise," Mo stated. In a recent study of 60 Chinese large- and medium-sized cities, they found about 70 vacancies for every 100 job-seekers.
Also, younger workers, below 35, now account for more than 60% of the total, up from less than 50% two years ago. Between 2001-05, the number of new job-seekers should reach 12.4 million each year, 2.9 million more than the annual average in 1996-2000. China is now creating only 8 million jobs a year.
At the same time, agricultural jobs are being lost rapidly, especially due to the effects of China joining the World Trade Organization. One official warned that the possible loss of jobs in the farming sector could range from 10.68 million to 13.35 million. There are already an estimated 150 million surplus rural laborers in China.
Pakistan-Afghanistan-Turkmenistan Summit on Gas Pipeline Ahead
A summit meeting of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan will take place next month in Ashgabat, to sign a framework agreement for a $2-billion gas pipeline, to go from eastern Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan, into Pakistan, the Russia Journal reported Nov. 25. The project recalls the UNOCAL project of years back, championed by Zalmay Khalilzad, now U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan. It's not clear what, if any, connection there is between the two projects.
How such a project can hope to get off the ground, is a big question, considering the anarchy reigning in Afghanistan. The most recent statement on conditions there, comes from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov, who said on Nov. 25: "There remains a potential danger that the same old forces will return to power in Afghanistan and ... spread their ideology beyond the border of the country." Losyukov spoke just days before Afghan Foreign Minister Abdallah is to arrive in Moscow. He said the situation is worsening, and that the Taliban could regain power in the country.
U.S.-Indonesia Conference Erupts in Debate Over U.S. Unilateralism
A U.S.-Indonesia Society conference in Washington at the end of November turned into a debate over U.S. unilateral policy-making and declarations. The Society-sponsored event featured Bambang Harymurti, the editor of Tempo, a leading intellectual journal (closed during Suharto's day), and Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, a former Minister under both Suharto and Wahid. A leading U.S. academic expert on Indonesia, Bill Liddle, belittled Tempo, and Indonesia generally, for arguing that Indonesian terrorism is homegrown, rather than being "international terrorism" tied to al-Qaeda, and accused Indonesia of "radical Sherlock Holmesism" for demanding evidence before declaring that al-Qaeda did it. Liddle said we didn't have that problem in the United States.
But Tempo editor Bambang responded sharply (in paraphrase): I've know these people in Jemaah Islamiah since 1975. They are not Islamicists, did not come through the Islamic schools, but were secular anarchists, and generally incompetent, who blew themselves up half the time when they were trying to bomb things. But, then they were taken to Afghanistan, "and trained in bomb making by the CIA and the [Pakistani] ISI, and whoever else," and when they came back, they kept doing what they were doing beforebut with skill.
In response to a question from EIR, suggesting that the effort to pin the operations on "international terrorism" may be aimed at activating the new U.S. strategic doctrine, which justifies preemptive, unilateral operations in the case of "international terrorism," Sarwono said that "the U.S. can do anything it wants to in the world, due to its overwhelming power. The question is, do they have the wisdom to know the consequences of their actions, for there will be consequences."
The U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, Matt Daley, who was on the panel, interjected: "Secretary Powell has made it very clear, repeatedly, that the U.S. will not intervene militarily in democratic countries whom we consider to be friends without full cooperation with the governmentand Indonesia is definitely a democracy and a friend."
Myanmar Approves Joint Infrastructure Projects with Thai Firms
Myanmar has approved several huge infrastructure development projects with Thai firms, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh announced Nov. 26, following a meeting of the Thai-Burmese Cultural and Economic Cooperation Association, which Chavalit co-chairs with Air Marshal Kyaw Than of Myanmar. Chavalit reported that Gen. Khin Nyunt, First Secretary of the ruling State Peace and Development Council had approved Thai investment in four projects: construction of a hydroelectric dam on the Salween river by MDX company; a coal mine in Myanmar opposite Thailand's Prachuap Khiri Khan; a port project in Tavoy; and a Mae Sot-Rangoon road project.
"Joint development will make border areas more open and help eliminate ... bad things hidden along the border and ensure greater security," Gen. Chavalit said, adding that drug production would decline if minority populations were cleared from border areas through peaceful means. Chavalit also agreed with Yangon that the Thai military's estimate of 1 billion methamphetamine pills entering Thailand next year was excessive, given Burma's collaboration with Bangkok in drug suppression.
"I am certain that Thailand and Burma will be best friends forever. From now on, we will have no conflicts or problems stemming from different viewpoints," Chavalit said.
Thai-Malaysia Gas Pipeline Will Go Ahead, Despite NGO Opposition
The giant Thai-Malaysia gas pipeline project is set to proceed, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Nov. 26, adding that those opposing construction were free to voice their opinion, but his government would base its decision on the national interest.
"The project is being reviewed carefully. I want to ensure safety," he said, pledging to weigh the pros and cons, but adding he would approve construction if there were no new counter arguments. Energy Minister Pongthep Thepkanchana pointed out the government had already agreed to re-route the pipeline to satisfy environmentalists and opponents.
Senator Withaya Masena said some opponents had ulterior motives and wanted to promote their own vested interests. "A group of 1,384 academics closely associated with non-governmental organizations seem suspiciously bent on blocking the construction of the pipeline, indeed any project deemed beneficial to the country."
Thaksin, Mahathir To Hold Bilateral Summit
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir and Thai Prime Minister Thaksin, two key leaders in Southeast Asia, plan to hold a joint Cabinet session in the coming weeks. Thaksin and his entire Cabinet will travel to Kuala Lumpur Dec. 21 to join in the end of Ramadan celebration, and the following day, Dr. Mahathir and his cabinet will travel to Songhkla, Thailand for the first-ever joint meeting of the two governments.
High-Speed Rail To Link China's Pearl River Cities
China's Guangdong Province government has unveiled a plan to build a 20.8 billion yuan ($2.5 billion) high-speed railway linking Guangzhou and Zhuhai and the boom towns in between on the west side of the Pearl River. Provincial authorities would present the plan to the central government, and construction could begin once Beijing had approved it, the Nanfang Daily, the official Guangdong Communist Party newspaper, said.
The 114.2-km Guangzhou-Zhuhai railway is part of the Guangdong government's ambitious plan to build a high-speed rail network linking all the major cities of the Pearl River Delta by 2020. The Guangzhou-Shenzhen railway serves the east side of the Pearl River, and the government plans to build more sections to link major towns. There is also a proposal to build a magnetic levitation (maglev) railway, similar to one being tested in Shanghai, between Guangzhou and Hong Kong.
If the proposed Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, now under discussion between Hong Kong and mainland authorities, goes ahead and includes a rail line, the whole delta could be ringed by high-speed rail.
Beijing Approves Great South-North Water Project
The central government of China has officially approved the construction of the great "Move South Water North" project, to divert water from southern China to the dangerously arid north.
At a press conference in Beijing yesterday, Water Resources Vice-Minister Zhang Jiyao said part of the project will start by the end of the year. "After nearly half a century of study and planning, we now can start putting the project that the late Chairman Mao Zedong envisioned into reality step by step," Zhang said.
Beijing plans to invest 154.8 billion yuan (U.S. $18.65 billion) in the first-phase project, which will be finished in the next five to 10 years. The whole project will be completed by 2050.
"The south-to-north water diversion project is a mega-project that is strategically aimed at realizing the optimal allocation of water resources," Zhang said.
Mahathir Warns Australia: Stop Playing 'Deputy Sheriff' to U.S.
In an interview with Greg Sheridan, foreign editor of The Australian, covered in the New Straits Times Nov. 25, Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir warned Australia: "If you take the position of being a sheriff, or deputy sheriff, to America, you cannot very well be accepted by the countries of this region.... Australia is more belligerent than many European countries. You have never criticized any of the acts of the Americans, even to the point where the Americans want to go off on their own and attack Iraq." Asked whether this would cause long-term damage to Australia, Dr. Mahathir said: "You will never be accepted. You will always be regarded as an outsider."
Dr. Mahathir was equally tough on the U.S., including the "war on terror": "I don't think the U.S. is winning. I don't think so, because this is the kind of war that can last for ages." He said he believed the U.S. had gone backwards politically in the past 14 months. "I would say the situation is worse than it was immediately after the attacks on Sept. 11. The day after the attacks, the whole world, including the Muslim world, united to fight terrorism," but the U.S. has alienated much Muslim opinion, and Muslims feel "it's not a campaign against terrorists, but against Muslims."
As he has often said of late, Dr. Mahathir reiterated that the U.S. should not only address terrorism as a security problem, but address its root causes as well. "It's not Islam at all," he said. "The Palestinian issue is basic, but, of course, the decision of the U.S. to keep its troops in Saudi Arabia after the Gulf War was the direct cause of Osama bin Laden's actions. The Palestinian issue is the major cause of all this. The Palestinians lost their land."
Thailand To Clean Out IMF's 'Stinky Pants'
Thailand's Thaksin Shinawatra government plans to retire the last of Thailand's IMF debt over the next yeartwo years earlyand is planning to overhaul or repeal the 11 conditionalities imposed by the IMF. Prime Minister Thaksin said the 11 measures were enacted by the former Democrat Party government "under pressure from the IMF." Government spokesman Sita Divari said, "The Democrats have dirtied their pants and passed them on to us to clean. Now they say the stinky pants are ours."
The laws allowed foreign giant superstores to move in, which wiped out thousands of domestic retail outlets, and other laws "put foreign investment first," according to critics.
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