AFRICA NEWS DIGEST
Former South African Diplomat Comments on Mbeki at ASEAN
Former South African diplomat John Mare, who now consults on international issues and is Head of the Asian and European Studies Units at Pretoria University, penned an important analysis of South African President Thabo Mbeki's participation in the recent ASEAN summit. Mare's report was published Nov. 6 in the Johannesburg newspaper Business Day. He wrote:
"This week, Mbeki makes an important strategic move that should have long-lasting political and economic results in the relations between Africa and Southeast Asia.
"The countries of SE Asia and those of southern Africa both occupy extremely important geostrategic positions, especially as they are major entry points into the Indian Ocean.
"The globally important reserves of natural resources in each region, together with their increasing industrial capabilities heightens this relevance.
"The Indian Ocean itself, with the colossus of India at its centre and the oil-rich Middle East generally classifying as littoral states, is one of the most politically and economically strategically important oceanic regions in the world....
"The relative stability in the SADC, despite some problems, bodes well for its ability to increasingly take up the opportunities offered in Asia. The developments emanating from Nepad and the creation of the African Union have far greater potential for new economic and political cooperation with southeast Asia.
"Mbeki made a major contribution towards building new bridges across the Indian Ocean when he became the first African head of state to address an ASEAN summit.... The address in Cambodia should also be seen in the context of future events which will strengthen our ties with southeast Asia.
"In February, Mbeki is due to visit Malaysia to formally hand over the chairmanship of the Nonaligned Movement to that country and later next year a meeting of the OIC, for which SA has asked observer status, will take place in Malaysia.
"In March next year, a ministerial meeting of the members of the Indian Ocean Rim Council, an organization set up in 1997 to promote economic ties across the Indian Ocean, with SA one of the founding members will take place in Sri Lanka.
"The new bridges being built across the Indian Ocean with southern Africa and southeast Asia playing pivotal roles will have profound effects on the greater international scene. One of these will be a new strengthened Indian Ocean interactive community, with increased interest from the entire Asian region in playing a part in all the regions of Africa. The SADC can learn much from the functioning of ASEAN."
Blair Intervention Exacerbates Fuel Crisis in Zimbabwe
The Mugabe government of Zimbabwe has made it clear that it is not currently able to import fuel from Libya, from which 70% of its fuel had come. The government newspaper, The Herald reported Oct. 31 these following by Mugabe to a group of businessmen: "The fuel comes in the name of the government. When the fuel comes, we are worried about its duration, whether we have enough stocks. And what do we do? We call in multinational companies. They sell and make profits.... They must import and not wait for government to do it for them. They have the foreign exchange. In true partnership, they should play their part."
The official exchange rate is 55 Zimbabwe dollars to one U.S. dollar, but the unofficial rate is now 1,500 to 1, and climbing.
No Libyan fuel has been delivered since mid-September, according to the Zimbabwe Independent, which concedes that there is still good will between the governments of Libya and Zimbabwe. The Independent says it "has it on good authority that government dispatched a team to Kuwait ... to negotiate re-opening fuel links with the Independent Petroleum Group of Kuwait."
According to the Zimbabwe Independent, British Prime Minister "Tony Blair is reported to have written a letter two weeks ago [last week of October], which was hand-delivered by a deputy secretary in the Labour government... to Muammar Gaddafi, asking him to stop fuel supplies to Zimbabwe. 'The British government, using a carrot-and-stick strategy, asked the Libyans to cut fuel supplies to Zimbabwe in return for the normalization of ties with London,' said a highly placed source based in Tripoli."
Based on the nature of contacts between London and Tripoli in recent weeks, the report of the letter is credible. But is it unlikely that Gaddafi would accept such an offer, although some news reports, such as that of the Sunday Times of Johannesburg, have claimed that he did. The Times quotes the Libyan ambassador to Zimbabwe, but the ambassador told Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corp. that he never spoke to the Times.
UN Bimonthly Report Warns of Starvation in Zimbabwe
The UN's field officers are reporting "a worsening food security situation in many districts" of Zimbabwe. The Nov. 15 bimonthly United Nations humanitarian report warned that rural hospitals are seeing a marked increase in the number of cases of malnutrition and pellagra, according to the Zimbabwe Independent newspaper. Black market maize is selling in urban areas at four times the price fixed by the government. "In most areas, it is not even available for purchase," according to the report.
The government is still not allowing the importation of grain by private companies, despite a commitment by President Mugabe to James Morris of the World Food Program (WFP) three months ago. There is also genetically modified maize from the United States sitting in storage in Zimbabwe (and also in Zambia), even though Mugabe told Morris in August that he would lift the ban on its distribution.
According to the UN report, the government has bought 15,000 tons of seed maize for distribution and another 15,600 tons has been sold directly to farmers. But, according to the report, the government has blocked the sale of more seed to farmers. Other reports critical of the government's actions have so far not made a claim that the government has blocked the sale of more seed. The UN report says the available seed can produce between 600,000 and 800,000 tons of maize in the new season just begun. The national requirement, however, is 1.8 million tons.
The same report, drawing on the work of the International Research Institute for Climatic Prediction, says that the threat to southern Africa from El Nino has shifted from "weak to moderate and continues to increase." "On this basis," the UN report continues, "Zimbabwe is likely to experience weather patterns similar to the previous year, when rainfall was too high from November through December and too low from January."
The WFP distribution plan for November calls for distribution to 3 million Zimbabweans. The WFP plans to feed about 5.9 million by January, but that is contingent on the generosity of donor agencies, who are currently supplying only about 35% of what they have already promised.
Radical Rightwing Irregular Warfare Targets South Africa
South African police have identified two men suspected of involvement in the planting of nine bombs in Soweto and Bronkhorstspruit as of Nov. 3. The Sunday Times of Nov. 3 reported that other suspects had compiled a hit list, targetting former President F.W. de Klerk, former Ministers Pik Botha and Roelf Meyer, retired Freedom Front leader Constand Viljoen, and a Tshwane councillor. Top security officials, who confirmed the discovery of the hit list, said the men on it were seen by extremists as having sold out their people. (Note that some of the people on this hit list, have also been involved in meeting with Israeli and Palestine leaders to attempt to secure peace along the South African model.)
The investigation of the blast scenes and unexploded bombs found in Soweto and Bronkhorstspruit produced enough DNA and other forensic evidence to identify the suspects conclusively. They are said to be part of a network of right-wing extremists for whom police have been looking for some time.
According to the Sunday Times, the bombers wanted to use the attacks to cause racial tension and instability. The right-wing groups are linked to militant religious cults, and the bombings were set to start on the date an Afrikaner seer had predicted the start of a new Boer rebellionOct. 29.
Busi Mavimbela, Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency, said, "To talk of a right-wing threat presupposes a big political movement from the right. This is more terrorism than a right-wing threat."
The religious cults identified as having right-wing links are Israel Vision, Daughter of Zion, and Phineas Priests. Some of them operate in the style of the Ku Klux Klan.
The Priests boast among their high-profile members the self-confessed neo-Nazi Barend Strydom, who killed seven black people in a 1988 shooting spree.
The extremists have recruited professional people, academics and former and current members of the military establishment, and have exploited fears of Zimbabwe-style farm invasions in South Africa to gain support.
Their plans include identifying and infiltrating intelligence structures, and monitoring police stations, city council offices, and arms and ammunition depots. They are known to be involved in legitimate business ventures, such as security companies, to ensure legal access to guns. Security firms also serve as legal training grounds for their recruits. The groups have no more than 1,500 members trained in basic military skills such as map reading, marksmanship, and the manufacture of explosives.
By Nov. 4, some 17 suspects had been arrested, including a senior member of the right-wing group the Boeremag, Tom Vorster, who was arrested in Gauteng Nov. 4 on charges of terrorism, high treason, and sabotage. The Boeremag intended to take control of the government and "chase all black people out of the country," according to documents obtained in conjunction with some of the arrests.
|