In this issue:

EU and Russia Settle Kaliningrad Dispute

Putin and Schroeder Meet in Oslo

New Atlantic Initiative Hawks Target Belarus

Visa Denied for Belarus President

Ukraine Asks UN To Mediate After U.S.-U.K. Inspections

Putin: No Talks with Maskhadov

SCO Foreign Ministers To Meet in Moscow

Russia Warns U.S. Not To Break International Law 'Again' in Iraq

Primakov Writes Book on Strategic Relations Since 9/11

From Volume 1, Issue Number 37 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Monday, Nov. 18, 2002
Russia and Central Asia News Digest

EU and Russia Settle Kaliningrad Dispute

Meeting in Brussels on Nov. 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the European Union (EU) agreed on a special visa procedure that will allow licenses for up to 900,000 trips annually by rail and another 600,000 by car, for Russians who commute, mostly via Lithuania, between the Russian mainland and the Kaliningrad enclave on the Baltic Sea. When Poland and Lithuania join the EU in 2004, Kaliningrad would otherwise be totally isolated, because the EU, which will border Belarus and Russia in the east, keeps a tight visa regime at its borders.

A feasibility study has been commissioned by the EU and Russia, for the project to build a new high-speed rail link from Russia to Kaliningrad, across Lithuania. This is a first step towards realizing such a project, which has been under discussion for some time.

Putin and Schroeder Meet in Oslo

Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder met in Oslo on Nov. 12. They endorsed the recent UN Security Council resolution on Iraq as a "good chance for avoiding a war," and Schroeder added that Germany wants to send inspectors with the UN team, to make the mission as efficient as possible.

The two leaders also said at a joint press conference, that Germany and Russia want to cooperate in the economic development of the Kaliningrad enclave, and that cooperation of Russia and Germany in the energy sphere is of "strategic" importance for secured energy supplies on the European continent.

Putin will visit Germany in early February 2003, for the official opening of the Year of Russian Culture (and Science) in Germany, it was announced. A corresponding Year of German Culture in Russia, also with a tribute to historical connections, will be held in 2004. The Putin-Schroeder meeting, held during the Russian President's official visit to Norway, had been planned for Oct. 24 in Berlin, but was postponed due to the mass hostage-taking in Moscow at that time.

New Atlantic Initiative Hawks Target Belarus

The New Atlantic Initiative (NAI,) the Thatcher-Buckley-Kissinger new imperium front group housed at the American Enterprise Institute, is flagrantly demanding that Belarus (and, by implication, Russia) be added to the list of "rogue states" targetted for extermination. AEI was the home of the Bush Administration's leading "chickenhawks," for the last decade, including Richard Perle, John Bolton, consultant Michael Ledeen, with frequent participation from Douglas Feith, and James Woolsey.

NAI held an event on Nov. 14 at the appropriately named Albert Wohlstetter Conference Center at AEI, under the title, "Axis of Evil: Belarus—The Missing Link." The keynote speaker was Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Other speakers included Tom Dine, the former head of Israel lobby's AIPAC, who now is president of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; Mark Palmer, the former Ambassador to Hungary and a longtime crony/asset of Kissinger and Soros; and Barbara Haig, vice president of the National Endowment for Democracy. The proceedings were greeted by Michael Kozak, current U.S. Ambassador to Belarus.

The fanaticism was already on display in the invitation: "The world is an unwelcome place for Saddam Hussein's cronies. Yet they are always welcome in Minsk—capital of Belarus.... In a land where the KGB (yes, still the KGB) runs roughshod over rights, no one is safe, and nothing is sacred.... Can the West work together to eliminate this shame of Europe?" The thesis of the conference was that Belarus President Alexander Lukashenka is Europe's last dictator, who consorts with the leadership of the countries President Bush has designated as the "Axis of Evil," including selling air defense weapons that are targetting U.S. and British planes patrolling the no-fly zones in Iraq.

McCain declared that NATO should not tolerate a "black hole of tyranny" in Belarus, and that it is time for the U.S. and its allies to pursue a campaign to "roll back Belarus's dictatorship." He said Russia is largely to blame for Lukashenka's dictatorship, but with what he called Russian President Putin's recent repudiation of Lukashenka, if it proves to be real, "a balance of power for freedom will rise to challenge Lukashenka."

The conference was co-sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute, Freedom House, the National Endowment for Democracy, the International Republican Institute, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the Pattis Family Foundation, and the U.S. embassy in Minsk.

Visa Denied for Belarus President

On Nov. 15, the government of the Czech Republic refused to issue a visa to Belarus President Lukashenka, so that he could attend the Nov. 20-21 NATO summit in Prague. Belarus opposes NATO's planned eastward expansion, but maintains a limited partnership with NATO through the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council.

The same day, Poul Kristoffersen, permanent representative of current European Union chairman Denmark, said that a decision on a standing ban on issuing visas to the President of Belarus may be taken at upcoming meeting of EU foreign ministers. He said the reason was human rights violations in Belarus, and non-cooperation with OCSE representatives. However, it should be noted that the decision came as Washington's senior hawks were gathered against Belarus at the New Atlantic Initiative.

Belarus recalled its Ambassador in the Czech Republic for consultations. The Russian Foreign Ministry has said nothing. Russia's NTV asserted that "all NATO" stood behind the Czech visa denial to Lukashenka, linking the move to "possible military cooperation with Iraq," among other things. The Czech Foreign Minister, meanwhile, insisted that the decision concerned "Lukashenka personally, not Belarus or its people"—but Lukashenka is the head of state.

Ukraine Asks UN To Mediate After U.S.-U.K. Inspections

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Anatoli Zlenko has appealed to the UN Security Council to take up U.S. allegations about Ukraine's having sold a Kolchuga air defense radar system to Iraq, according to Ukrainian wire service reports. Zlenko disputed U.S. and British complaints, that Ukrainian officials provided insufficient information to investigators from those countries, who demanded and obtained an invitation to visit Kiev on the matter in October. "We should not leave this situation in an ambiguous position," Zlenko said. "We need to appeal to the higher authority also, because Iraqi issues are not only [a matter of] American security and our bilateral relations, but are issues of world peace and security." U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher countered Nov. 6, saying, "If the Ukrainian government had wanted to clarify matters fully, they could have done so with the U.S. and the U.K. team."

Under pressure from the U.S. inspectors, Ukrainian Presidential Administration chief Victor Medvedchuk said Nov. 12 that Ukraine revealed "top-secret information" on the serial numbers and current location of 76 Kolchuga radars, produced beginning in 1987. According to Medvedchuk, Ukrainian authorities intervened to stop talks between the state-owned arms exporting firm Ukrspetseksport and a prospective purchaser from Jordan.

Putin: No Talks with Maskhadov

Addressing a group of Chechen businessmen and religious leaders in Moscow Nov. 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there would be "no second Khasavyurt," referring to the 1996 peace treaty and withdrawal of Russian federal troops from Chechnya. Maskhadov had "opted for terrorism," he said, and was to blame for "bringing Russia and Chechnya to war." At the same time, he called for new political measures in Chechnya, including moves towards a constitutional referendum.

Putin discussed the plans of Wahhabite-Islamic radicals as a threat to the territorial integrity of Russia, saying that they used the slogan of Chechen independence, "to turn Chechnya into a staging ground for international terrorism, and for ambitious plans of attacking fraternal Dagestan, then creating a medieval caliphate from the Black Sea to the Caspian." He added, "When I talk about the unconditional necessity of ensuring the territorial integrity of Russia, I am convinced of the following. If we do not solve the problem of Chechnya today, then tomorrow, just like in 1999, attempts will be made to create this notorious 'caliphate,' ... which is supposed to include not only the entire North Caucasus, but also part of Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories. But that is not all. That will inevitably be followed by attempts to heat up the situation in the multiethnic Volga region of Russia. It is all designed to push the situation in our country in the direction of 'the Yugoslav scenario.' It will not happen."

Putin repeated these formulations in an angry exchange with Western reporters, during his visit to Brussels two days later.

SCO Foreign Ministers To Meet in Moscow

The Foreign Ministers of the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization—Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan—are to meet in Moscow Nov. 23 to discuss security issues, especially the fight against terrorism, according to Itar-Tass. They will also discuss the political situation in the region, according to the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Asian Department, Alexander Ivanov. He said that "Some 20 documents are being drawn [up] at the working level" on these issues. Indian Ambassador to Russia Krishnan Raghunath told Itar-Tass that India intends to join the SCO.

Russia Warns U.S. Not To Break International Law 'Again' in Iraq

This statement was made by Yuri Fedotov, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister and its top UN negotiator. Commenting on the UN Security Council resolution on Iraq, Fedotov said: "We expect common sense to prevail. [The resolution] was approved unanimously and was backed by very many countries, including the Arab nations. The document helps to switch the Iraq situation over to a peaceful course and leaves hope for a political-diplomatic settlement of the problem." He stressed that "the resolution does not stipulate any automatic use of force." And in case of any problem with Iraq acceptance of the resolution, "The Security Council will have to meet again."

Russia is ready to send its inspectors to Iraq, he said, adding that the national composition of the commission of inspectors that includes India, Ukraine, Belarus, and some Ibero-American, African, and East European states, "is more balanced than that of the previous one."

Asked about a possible unilateral attack by the U.S., Fedotov said Washington would be breaking international law if it went ahead with strikes without UN approval. He also made a point of saying that the U.S. had already broken international law with the air strikes of December 1998, which he described as "a clear violation of international law." Those bombings, Fedotov said, "began during a UN debate on the [chief UN inspector Richard] Butler weapons inspections report." After a standoff between the weapons inspectors and Iraqi officials in December 1998, Butler withdrew his inspectors and the U.S. and Britain bombed Iraq. "I hope that in the future they will not violate international law."

For Russia's broad economic initiatives in the Persian Gulf, see this week's Middle East Digest.

Primakov Writes Book on Strategic Relations Since 9/11

Former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov has written a forthcoming book called The World After September 11, from which he has authorized chapters to be excerpted for pre-publication in Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the Russian government newspaper. A chapter called "The U.S. and Iraq—a View from Russia" appeared in RG on Oct. 30.

Primakov details what led to the pull-out of UN weapons inspectors from Iraq in 1998, focussing on the provocative role of Richard Butler. He quotes the recent remarks of Rolf Ekkeus, head of the UN inspectors in Iraq during 1991-97, that the U.S., as Primakov puts it, "had been trying to influence the work of UN inspectors and pursued 'definite interests,' including those which did not fall under the mandate of the UN commission in Iraq"—including profiling of Saddam Hussein and his inner circle, for potential future use. Primakov details Butler's cynicism and provocations, recounting his own direct conversations with Butler

Primakov compares that situation with today's: "What decision should have been taken at that time and in a similar situation today? Iraq should have been shown in a categorical way that it would have to agree to the work of the UN inspectors ... and that any actions against them would be unacceptable for the world community.... But parallel with such a tough line, it is necessary to eliminate complete vagueness as regards lifting economic sanctions that hit the people of Iraq in the first place rather than its regime."

In the past few months, writes Primakov, Washington has "resumed psychological preparations for military actions against Iraq. The preparations included also anti-Iraqi statements by U.S. top officials and the frequent 'leaks' to the press of detailed plans of the military operation. This brainwashing went beyond the limits of pressure on the Iraqi leaders. Most likely it was designed to keep the whole world in suspense and make it get used to the idea that a unilateral U.S. decision to attack Iraq was inevitable. But evidently Washington 'overdid' it—in many cases the campaign produced quite opposite results."

He points out, "Many Democrats in the U.S. came out against President George Bush's desire to ignore the UN Security Council, which alone can sanction a strike at Iraq." Earlier in the article, Primakov quotes Sen. Robert Byrd's September 2002 speech, in which he recalled that the Reagan Administration had backed Iraq as a supposed counterweight to Iran. Primakov notes the growing opposition in Europe, to attacking Iraq.

Primakov also situates the U.S. agitation around Iraq, in the context of "the new U.S. military doctrine, in which the emphasis is made on preventive actions against enemies that have been conceived by the U.S. itself." He says, "Such a principle sacrifices international law and the legislation of sovereign states to freely interpreted U.S. security."

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