Asia News Digest
'China Thinks Ahead: Asian Union in the Works'
The visit of Chinese President Jiang Zemin to George W. Bush in Texas, is "obviously a smart political trick by China." China devoted big efforts to preparing the visit, wrote Pravda correspondent Andrey Krushinksy on Oct. 29, efforts that included praise of U.S.-China relations, the opening of a U.S. FBI office in Beijing, and other steps.
However, Pravda says, "The truth is, that the world's only 'superpower' has turned out be unusually dependent upon other countries at the moment," especially due to the devastating economic effects that a war on Iraq would have.
Also, the North Korean "confession" about nuclear weapons, has made the U.S. more dependent upon China to resolve this crisis. Jiang Zemin, in Texas, made moderate statements on Iraq and North Korea, and Jiang "probably managed to demonstrate to George Bush his loyalty and bound himself by no obligations."
"It seems," Pravda continued, "that China's main objectives are currently to avoid engaging in a cold war with the USA, as well as to gain time to strengthen its own economy and to secure a strong geopolitical rear, in East Asia mainly."
China has been actively developing its relations with ASEAN during October, including "realization of large-scale projects for construction of the Trans-Asiatic gas pipeline, Pan-Asiatic railway, and the Program for the development of the Mekong region," Pravda continued.
Also, "introduction of a single Asian currency, similar to the euro in Europe, is currently being actively discussed. The Chinese yuan could be used as the basis for it."
The sixth ASEAN-plus-3 meeting will be held at the beginning of November, and Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji will attend. "Does not this seem like the creation of something similar to an East Asian Council for Mutual Economic Aid, a creation of economic union to guarantee an economic basis for the East in its opposition from the West?" Krushinsky asked.
The U.S. attacks on the so-called "axis of evil" have helped this tendency mature, Pravda wrote. The East Asian Council for Mutual Economic Aid "would become a safe geopolitical rear for China, it would insure China from risks ... and help with the creation of a new politically influential 'pole' in the world."
Koreans, Regional Partners Proceed with Silk Road
"The South and North Koreans are going ahead with the Iron Silk Road, the Americans are looking for a way out of nuclear war, and the Japanese are trying to compromise with everybody," a senior Korean diplomat characterized the situation in East Asia Oct. 30. The diplomat stressed that South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung made "an impassioned appeal in his APEC keynote speech" in Mexico that all 21 nations focus on "assisting Pyongyang out of its economic difficulties, once it has abandoned its nuclear ambitions." He added, "I would stress the offer of economic benefits."
President Kim, he said, was responsible for the emphasis in one of the final communiqués on "The potential for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to benefit economically from greater participation as a member of the Asia-Pacific community. Such prospects rest upon the nuclear-weapons-free status of the Korean peninsula." On departing Seoul, he said, President Kim warned the U.S. against scrapping the Clinton-era "Agreed Framework" with Pyongyang; then in Mexico, Kim convinced Bush to stop insisting that the accord was "dead."
In Tokyo, Yukio Takeuchi, Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, also hailed the accords achieved at the APEC in Mexico, as a diplomatic victory for Japan's policy of rapprochement with North Korea. "The Pyongyang Joint Declaration [signed by the North Korean and Japanese heads of state Sept. 17 ed.] has been recognized as forming the fundamental understanding" of how to deal with North Korea, he said. In meetings with Chinese President Jiang and Russian President Putin, Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi also worked on the wording in the APEC statement which "offers a special carrot and stick to North Korea," Asahi News reported Oct. 30. "The statement calls on Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program and join the Asia-Pacific community in order to become eligible for economic benefits."
"North Korea has started railway and roadway levelling work north of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)," a Seoul official told Yonhap News Oct. 30, in addition to continuing to clear mines and wire from the DMZ. An 18-member North Korean economic delegation headed by Park Nam-ki, chairman of the North's State Planning Commission, is meanwhile touring South Korean industry for nine days, taking a series of rides on Seoul's high-speed bullet train network to test the trains.
Russian Railways Minister Gennady Fadeyev arrived Oct. 30 in Pyongyang for a week, Yonhap and the Voice of Russia radio report. With him is a delegation of experts to assess the conditions of North Korean railroads and to estimate the costs of rebuilding them, which may reach 70 billion rubles.
Russia and North Korea have also issued a plan calling for the three-way emphasis of railroad tie-ups between the Koreas, Russia, and China. An August summit by North's leader Kim Jong-il and Russian President Putin agreed on work to connect Seoul and Pyongyang near Korea's east coast, with Wonsan on North Korea's west coast, bypassing China, and running the main line up the west coast via Tumangang and Khasan to Vladivostock. The new plan, however, calls for the main Trans-Korean rail line to pass first through China at Sinuiji, and then run north up the length of Chinese Manchuria, to link to Trans-Siberian Russian lines at Zabaikal. "South Korean and Chinese authorities are already working on the new project," Voice of Russia reports.
South-North summits also continue in Pyongyang, where officials of the two Koreas meet Oct. 30 on construction of the big joint industrial complex in Kaesong, just north of the DMZ from Seoul. At the meeting, the two sides are expected to set a date on opening a South Korean liaison office in Kaesong so construction can begin in December.
Anti-Muslim Riots in Colombo
The Sri Lankan government clamped a curfew on a Colombo suburb on Oct. 30 following clashes between Muslims and majority Sinhalas over the planned building of a mosque. Houses and cars were set on fire, and at least 13 people were wounded.
The clash took place while representatives from the Sri Lankan government, the rebel Tamil Tigers, and the Muslim minority headed for a second round of peace talks in Thailand to try to end the two-decade-old civil war that has claimed more than 64,000 lives. In addition, on Oct. 29, the Sri Lankan government decided to form an advisory committee to ensure the security of the island's Muslims in the northeast. The panel would ensure the participation of the Muslim community in the current affairs to chalk out a negotiated peaceful settlement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
The riot indicates that the chauvinist Sinhalas, who do not seek any settlement with the Tamils, have targetted the Muslims to sabotage the talks. It is reported that President Chandrika Kumaratunge is backing these chauvinists, who mostly represent the Buddhist temples. The Muslims became their target chiefly for two reasons. First, the LTTE, during the first round of talks, welcomed the Muslims to the northeast, where the Tamils are strong, and demanded an equal say of the Muslim community in the settlement talks. This enraged the Sinhalas.
The second reason is the publication of Dr. Rohan Gunaratna's book Inside al-Qaeda. Gunaratna, who is based in England and writes his papers on terrorism to propagate particular slant of the British intelligence (this book also satisfies the American intelligence viewpoint), claims that the Muslims are a threat because they have become a part of the al-Qaeda terrorist network. His line has given the Buddhist crowd an added opportunity to justify anti-Muslim riots and break down the peace talks.
Greater Mekong Subregional Grouping Holds Mini-Summit
On Nov. 3, just ahead of the annual ASEAN heads of state summit meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia Nov. 4-5, leaders of China, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar met in Cambodia's capital. This meeting marks the 10th anniversary of the launch of the Asian Development Bank's Greater Mekong Subregion program, and was set to finalize $11 billion worth of projects aimed at transforming the formerly wartorn region. The Asian Development Bank describes the project as "the new frontier for economic growth in Asia."
The Mekong Subregion encompasses an area the size of Western Europe which is home to 250 million people (Yunnan Province, China is a member of the group). The project is based on overlapping infrastructure grids for road, rail, air links, communications, power supply, river navigation and flood control. ADB Director General Rajat Nag described it thus: "We want to have the whole region connected by quality physical infrastructure and everything else that goes with it. In the next 10 years, we want to see the physical infrastructure network all in place. We will help all these countries to build an enabling environment for growth."
Requirements for the next three years are $2 billion, and unfortunately, much of the funding is contingent on "private-sector" investment. Nag adds: "These countries are extremely pragmatic. They say, let's focus on the do-able. And let's get on with it."
New Era in Vietnamese-French Relations
For the first time since Vietnam's national hero Ho Chi Minh travelled to Paris in 1946, a President of Vietnam will return to the French capital for a state visit. President Tran Duc Luong is making a four-day visit to Paris starting Nov. 4, accompanied by Foreign Minister Nguyen Dy Nien, Trade Minister Truong Dinh Tuyen, and other senior officials and a group of Vietnamese businessmen. Subjects for discussion include bilateral economic and trade relations, and efforts to promote regional dialogue between Asia and Europe. Also on the table is Vietnam Airlines' purchase of five A-321 Airbus planes for $213 million, and the sensitive issue of adoptions of Vietnamese children. Two weeks ago, Vietnam's population hit the 80 million, compared to France's 59.4 million.
Currently, France is Vietnam's most important European trading partner, with trade of $1.07 billion in 2001, but it is only the sixth-largest investor in Vietnam at $2 billion. France is second to Japan in foreign aid to Hanoi.
S&P Announces Philippines 'Has Temporarily Lost Control Over Public Finances'
On Oct. 30, a public announcement was issued by David Beers of Standard & Poor's rating agency, in a Hong Kong press conference, to the effect that S&P had lowered its outlook on the Philippines credit rating from "stable" to "negative." While the action appears to have some basis, it must be seen in a broader context, as part of the escalating attack on the Southeast Asian economies since the Oct. 12 Bali bombing. (See this week's INDEPTH for analysis of both the terrorist threats in the Philippines and Indonesia, and how the situations are being used by Anglo-American interests to target these nations.)
The Philippine deficit is soaring past the 4% of GDP targetted in the budget, and government debt has leapt upward. The government will now have to pay even higher interest rates for its borrowing. S&P lowered only the "outlook," not the actual credit ratings, but these may follow soon. With equity and currency values already falling severely, this could push them over the edge.
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