Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Putin Cancels Diplomatic Travel, in Moscow Hostage Crisis
Russian President Vladimir Putin had to cancel his planned attendance at the Oct. 26-27 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Mexico, due to the seizure of a Moscow theater by Chechen separatists on Oct. 23. The terrorists invaded a performance of the popular musical show Nord-Ost (Northeast), taking hostage the audience and cast over 700 people and threatening to blow up the building if it were stormed. The hostage-taking ended at dawn on Saturday, Oct. 26, when Russian special forces stormed the building after the Chechen band began to shoot hostages. Over 100 hostages died, but 750 were rescued.
Putin also had to call off his scheduled Oct. 24 trip to Portugal, which was to have been preceded by a stopover in Germany for two hours of talks with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. The Russian and German leaders' wives had met over the previous weekend in Berlin and Kassel, in the context of their efforts to promote the study of Russian by German youth, and vice versa. The 300th-anniversary celebrations of the founding of St. Petersburg will take place next year and will feature a strong cultural component of German-Russian relations.
On Oct. 22, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Valentina Matviyenko visited Duesseldorf for economic talks, including on energy cooperation. Russian diplomacy in Europe also included Industry and Science Minister Viktor Klebanov's trip to Paris the week of Oct. 21 for talks with the French Finance Minister and a session of the Franco-Russian Economic Cooperation Council. Then after consultations with Russian government and banking officials, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development decided to place its first long-term ruble-denominated bonds, in the coming weeks. And on Nov. 11, the EU-Russia Summit will be held in Copenhagen.
Primakov: U.S. Underestimates Aftermath of Attack on Iraq
Former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov was in Washington Oct. 18 to conduct some private diplomacy. He came as the invited guest of Henry Kissinger. After meeting with Vice President Dick Cheney and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, he commented that the U.S. Administration "underestimated" what the aftermath of its planned strike against Iraq would be.
RIA Novosti reported: "The U.S. 'underestimates the price it will have to pay' if it deals a strike at Iraq, Primakov told newsmen. It is not only that there may be numerous casualties among the Americans, he said the whole situation will change drastically. In his view, while at present the U.S. enjoys full support of the world community in its struggle against terrorism, after a strike at Iraq 'this will largely not be the case.'
" 'The situation will change also in regard to its relations with other states, not just with Russia,' he pointed out. 'I don't think that someone can simply support the U.S. strike at Iraq unless this will be done in keeping with a UN Security Council resolution,' Primakov said. In the opinion of the Russian ex-Prime Minister, the U.S. leadership has not yet taken a political decision on striking Iraq. Such a strike would be wrong even in terms of combatting terrorism, because there are no grounds to consider that such an action will reduce the possibilities for the emergence of terrorism the contrary will most likely occur, Primakov warned. He stressed in this connection that Russia maintains a 'well-grounded and fairly strong position' it is necessary to ensure that all UN Security Council resolutions on Iraq be fulfilled, which should be done by means of the work carried out there by the inspectors."
Primakov develops these points in an article in the Oct. 23 issue of the magazine National Interest.
Perhaps due to his current position as Chairman of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Primakov also reportedly endorsed the scenario for a huge increase in Russian oil exports to the U.S. up to as much as 50 million tons of crude next year, in the context of the U.S. search for alternative oil supplies.
Pravda.ru Moots 'Pristina' Variant for Iraq
The Pravda.ru wire service recently carried an analysis of official Russian dissatisfaction with the alleged guarantees that Russia's economic interests, specifically Lukoil's contracts, would be protected in a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. The article quoted Lukoil VP Leonid Fedun saying that the company has received no assurances from the U.S. about the protection of its $20 billion in contracts. Pravda.ru then speculated that it was not out of the question for Russian military intelligence (GRU) operatives to arrive suddenly in Iraq and arrange a rapid and honorable surrender by Saddam Hussein under a pretext like "to save the country from the horror of another war." The article compared such a hypothetical action with the swift surprise drive by Russian paratroopers to Pristina airport in Kosovo in 1999, catching NATO unawares.
LaRouche Sept. 11 Webcast Analysis of U.S. 'War Party' Covered in Russia
Issue No. 42-43 of the widely read intelligence-connected Russian weekly Zavtra drew extensively from EIR and Lyndon LaRouche, in an article on the background and origins of the Iraq war policy and the new U.S. "National Security Strategy." Among other things, Zavtra gave prominence to LaRouche's characterization of the Cheney-Wolfowitz-Perle-etc. cabal as "insane utopians," and his statement, in his Sept. 11, 2002 webcast, to the effect that the "war party" was the sole beneficiary of the terror attack of 9/11. Otherwise, Zavtra focussed particularly on the Israeli/Sharon angle of the war policy, notably detailing the long history of Israeli intelligence operations against the United States.
Not by Chechen Forces Alone
"This could not have been done by Chechen forces alone," said a Russian intelligence-linked observer, about the Oct. 23 hostage crisis in Moscow. "The operation was much too important and broader in implications. It can hardly be an accident, that the action came after Russia took a staunch position against the Bush Administration's war drive in the UN Security Council...." The observer indicated that the operation must have been assisted by some network inside the Russian security apparatus, possibly under foreign influence. Also, "There are various forces in the Russian establishment, who have an interest in dismantling Putin's power structure."
A senior Russian military intelligence expert commented to EIR, "The events in Moscow are part of a 'system' of worldwide actions designed to enforce compliance with the Iraq war drive." He saw this as the common purpose of the whole series of recent international terrorist incidents, including the Bali bombing and other incidents in Asia, the bombing in Finland, an Oct. 19 restaurant bombing in Moscow, and then the hostage-taking.
Russian Military, Intelligence Reps Push for 'Hard Line,' Throw Blame on Liberals
In an Oct. 25 interview in the Russian Defense Ministry daily Red Star, well-known Chechnya war veteran Gen. Vladimir Shamanov declared: "Leave this matter to the professionals. People should get out of the way, and let professionals handle this. There can be some exchanges with the terrorists, but one thing is clear: there will be no giving in to their demands on Chechnya.... Today the leadership of the country is faced with the decision between a 'bad' scenario and a 'very bad' scenario for how events might develop. The choices will be made at the top."
In what may become a chorus of "hard-line" reaction, Shamanov added a heavy attack against the Russian "reformers": "Exactly those liberal voices who are now screaming in the media about the 'incompetence' and 'mistakes' of the Russian security forces in this matter, are the same people who are responsible for destroying the Russian military and intelligence capabilities over the years."
Another famous figure from the Russian military and intelligence world, KGB General Nikolai Leonov, also blamed the reformers for "bringing the country and its secret services into such a terrible state." He asked, "Who was it that spread corruption to the point, that the Chechens could do whatever they want in Moscow? ... I raise the question of the responsibility of the so-called democratic and reformist forces, who have destroyed the state and weakened all of its security apparatus." Leonov called for use of force to end the hostage-taking: "If we believe in the sacred idea of the integrity of our country, then we must be prepared to accept casualties.... The terrorists must be annihilated, even if this means some of our citizens are killed in the process. I am not one of those who insist that not a single [civilian life] should be put at risk."
These interview appeared before Russian spetsnaz units ended the incident.
Brzezinski Saw Terrorist Incident as Opportunity for His Separatist Scheme
Interviewed on radio Oct. 25, in his capacity as head of his American Committee for Peace in Chechnya, Zbigniew Brzezinski said Russian President Putin was caught between two fires, and had only one way out without a bloodbath that would destroy him. He must bring the "recognized elected President of Chechnya," Aslan Maskhadov in, to talk with the terrorists. Maskhadov will declare a truce, and Putin and Maskhadov must negotiate a ceasefire, which will be Maskhadov's offer to the terrorists. Challenged as to whether the Russian people would accept Brzezinski's scheme for such pro-separatism, he said the Russian people no longer support the war in Chechnya as they did in the past, and insisted his proposal is the only way for Putin to avoid disaster.
Brzezinski, who was Jimmy Carter's National Security Adviser, has long envisioned using Islamic groups against Moscow, and was the U.S. official who created the "Afghansi" warriors against the Soviet Union, that spawned al-Qaeda. His ACPC has co-sponsored talks between Maskhadov's representatives and leading Russian Parliament and other political figures. (See EIW of Sept. 9, 2002.)
Meanwhile, spokesmen for Aslan Maskhadov's Chechen grouping issued statements during the Moscow hostage crisis, disavowing responsibility for the theater attack. Maskhadov's Chechenpress reported that his deputy Akhmed Zakayev (who has been involved in the Brzezinski-sponsored diplomatic probes held in Liechtenstein this summer and, more recently, in Switzerland) was at the British Parliament on Oct. 24, where he told PACE rapporteur on Chechnya Lord Judd that "the Chechen leadership under President Maskhadov decisively condemns any actions against civilians."
In Washington, Maskhadov's representative Lema Usmanov suggested the attack was "a provocation."
Car Bombing at Moscow Restaurant
The Russian Emergency Situations Ministry said an explosion Oct. 19 outside a McDonalds restaurant in Moscow was an act of terrorism. One person died. Press accounts variously attributed the bombing to criminal gangs, Chechen separatists, or anti-globalist leftist radicals.
India, Iran Active in Central Asia
The rising profile of Iran in Central Asia, despite the heavy presence of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, is being noted in the Indian and other regional press. Iran has introduced a direct flight from Tehran to Dushanbe, Tajikistan, supplementing an existing Dushanbe-Mashhad air link. The Iranians also plan to build a hydroelectric power plant in Tajikistan, as well as opening a cement manufacturing plant.
Similarly, India is getting busy in Central Asia. Beside setting up an air base in Tajikistan, India is in the process of acquiring a stake with Russia as partner in the proven Kazak oil field at Kurmangazy. A senior Indian official delegation is now touring Kazakstan to clinch the deal. And, in working toward deepening its political and economic influence in the region, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who visited Kazakhstan in June, will be visiting Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan later this year.
The Hindu says that India wants to build a major software development center in Central Asia and this effort would start by building a facility in Kyrgyzstan. India also wants Central Asia to be part of an extended trade network, with Myanmar and Thailand in Southeast Asia on the other end. India is currently negotiating with Iran and Russia, the construction of a North-South corridor that can be used for sending Indian goods to Central Asia via Iran.
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