In this issue:

Agreement Reached for New Inter-Korean Meetings

North Korean Leader Will Visit Russia to Push Rails Project

Some Improvement in North Korean Relations with United Nations

Musharraf Tells Press Bin Laden Could Not Have Planned Sept. 11

Taiwan President Forced To Backtrack on Provocative Statement

More Indications of U.S. Intentions To "Stay On" in Central Asia

Philippines Government and New People's Army Back Away from Imminent Confrontation

Japan Jumpstarts Economic Initiatives with Myanmar

From the Vol.1,No.23 issue of Electronic Intelligence Weekly
Asia News Digest

Agreement Reached for New Inter-Korean Meetings

This past weekend's successful inter-Korean negotiations resulted in an agreement to hold top-level ministerial talks between South Korean Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Ryong-song Aug. 12-14 in Seoul. "We hope next week's talks will result in ... the reunions of separated families and the reconnection of inter-Korean railways," Seoul Presidential spokeswoman Park Sun-sook said. The ministers will discuss anti-flood measures along the Imjin River, reunions of family members, connecting the two Koreas by rail links and roads, and the construction of an industrial complex in Kaesong, the Blue House (the Presidential residence) said.

There was also a decision by the North to take part in the Pusan Asian Games in September, a major nationalistic issue in Korea. "It is very meaningful that North Korea has decided to send its team to the Busan Asian Games in September," said Rhee Bong-jo, South Korean chief delegate. "It will contribute to encouraging the spirit of reconciliation and cooperation between the two sides." North Korea also agreed to allow South Korea to light a torch at Mount Paekdu, which will be used together with a torch lit at Mount Halla on Cheju Island, to light the cauldron at the opening ceremony of the Asian Games.

North Korean Leader Will Visit Russia to Push Rails Project

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will visit later in August, approximately a year after his last trip, reported the Korean press Aug. 5. Yonhap News reports that he is going to advance work on the link-up of North Korea to the Trans-Siberian Railroad. Thirty North Korean students will study at Russia's Siberian National Railway College in Novosibirsk, starting next month, Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) said, citing a report from its office in Vladivostok.

Some Improvement in North Korean Relations with United Nations

Two significant meetings occurred between United Nations' representatives and North Korea last week. The first was a visit by Jack Pritchard, Washington's UN representative for negotiations with Pyongyang, who went on Aug. 5-6 to attend a ceremony for the setting of the concrete foundations of a nuclear-power plant under construction in Kumho on North Korea's east coast. According to North Korean officials Aug. 5, Pritchard was acting as an executive board member of the Korean Peninsula Energy Organization (KEDO), the Clinton-era international consortium responsible for the construction of two light-water reactors in North Korea.

Then, on Aug. 6, the U.S.-run United Nations Command (UNC) and North Korea held a military generals' meeting at the DMZ in Korea, and agreed to joint efforts to prevent a recurrence of incidents like the June 29 naval clash. "We had a very positive meeting today," said U.S. Army Maj. Gen. James Soligan, the UNC's deputy chief of staff. "These talks today proved that positive progress can be made only through open dialogue."

This first military meeting in almost two years also cleared the way for UNC-North Korea military talks on reducing tensions on the peninsula, according to South Korean Air Force Brig. Gen. Lee Jung-seok of the UNC. UNC officials said that working-level talks between the two sides would soon be held in a follow-up to the meeting. The UNC informed North Korea that salvage operations to retrieve a sunken patrol boat and the body of a missing sailor had begun. "We discussed preventive measures, such as establishing new communication procedures and conducting regular staff-officer level meetings, to reduce tensions and prevent clashes from happening again," Maj. Gen. Soligan said.

Musharraf Tells Press Bin Laden Could Not Have Planned Sept. 11

In an interview with the New Yorker magazine of Aug. 12, which was previewed in the Aug. 5 Times of India, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf stated that he did not think it possible that Osama bin Laden had planned the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States.

"I didn't think it possible that Osama, sitting up there in the mountains, could do it," Musharraf was quoted by the New Yorker.

"He was perhaps the sponsor, the financier, the motivating force. But those who executed it were much more modern," Musharraf said. "They knew the U.S., they knew aviation. I don't think he has the intelligence or the minute planning. The planner was someone else."

Taiwan President Forced To Backtrack on Provocative Statement

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian backtracked on his statements of Aug. 3, saying that his comments on a referendum on the future political status of Taiwan were "oversimplified and could create misunderstanding," according to the Straits Times of Aug. 7. In a statement issued by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party Aug. 6, Chen also re-formulated his assertion that Taiwan and China were "one country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait, to say that he had meant was that each side had "equal sovereignty."

On Taiwan's "own road," he said he had meant "the road of democracy, freedom, human rights, and peace."

There was sharp criticism of Chen for his provocative remarks from businessmen in Taiwan. Taiwanese have invested some US$100 billion in China since the end of the 1980s, and some 500,000 now live in China.

In addition, as could be expected, the Beijing Taiwan Affairs Office responded critically to the referendum call. Beijing's statement, by spokesman Li Weiyi, called Chen's demand "a serious incident to split China," and likened it to the earlier operation mounted by former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui in 1999, when Lee said that relations between China and Taiwan were "state-to-state" relations.

As the Beijing statement noted, Chen made his call for a referendum, and statement that "each side [of the Taiwan strait] is a country," during a televised speech to a pro-independence Taiwanese group in Tokyo.

The Taiwanese business community has big economic reasons to want to keep relations calm, because the crash of the U.S. market has made China the biggest market for Taiwanese exports, replacing the U.S. In addition, negotiations on direct transport, trade, and postal links between Taipei and China hang in the balance.

More Indications of U.S. Intentions To "Stay On" in Central Asia

A review of Eurasianet of Aug. 6 uncovered the following developments, which tend to belie the official line that the United States is only temporarily based in Central Asia, in order to deal with terrorism.

*The U.S. military is planning to spend at least $5 million to improve the Khanabad air base in Uzbekistan, it was announced at the end of July. The U.S. military intends to refurbish the runway at the air base, and build additional facilities there, where some 1,500 U.S. personnel are already stationed.

*Analyst Sergei Tunik, in the Kazakhstan daily Express K, wrote recently that the U.S. wants to maintain a military presence in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan because of the oil and gas resources of the region. He cited the trans-Afghan pipeline project to export Turkmen gas, on which Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkmenistan have signed a MOU in May. "For the USA, the pipeline is one more reason for 'lingering on' in Central Asia," Tunik wrote.

*Uzbek President Islam Karimov has been promoting Uzbekistan's proximity to Afghanistan, to "encourage" U.S., Japanese, or other investment. "We have a direct link with Afghanistan through the Termez bridge," Karimov said on Uzbek television Aug. 2. "Japan, the United States, or any other country, when formulating their plans on the implementation of projects in Afghanistan, will certainly take into account Uzbekistan and its transport opportunities.... [Tashkent can] cooperate with investor countries, as well as think of our own benefit."

*Eurasianet also cited one Kazakh analyst, who noted the "muted" response of the U.S. to recent political moves inside Kazakhstan. "Speaking of the long-range outlook, America needs Kazakhstan for large-scale control of China," the analyst was quoted. "In terms of the short-range perspective, Kazakhstan would provide its airports for the possible operations against Iraq since the United States would [probably] not be able to use bases in Turkey and Uzbekistan."

Philippines Government and New People's Army Back Away from Imminent Confrontation

As of Aug. 7, the New People's Army (NPA) insurgency in the Philippines looked as if it were on an immediate course toward war and terrorism with the Philippines government. But, according to the Philippines Inquirer of Aug. 8, Jose Maria Sison, the NPA chief in exile in the Netherlands, backed off from his Aug. 7 statement that he had ordered his movement to respond to the government declaration of war by bombing energy towers and lines, and called his statement "only an analytical piece." He said that he meant only that things could return to the days of insurgency in the 1970s and '80s. Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes, for the government side, said that they had not intended a declaration of war, but that their approach to the NPA would be "holistic," with a "strong social, economical, political component. It's not true that it is an all-out war."

One crucial question is whether the numerous planned U.S. "exercises" will be engaged in this fight, as they were in the Abu Sayyaf war in the South. The NPA, which had 25,000 members in arms at its peak in the 1980s, fell to a few thousand in the 1990s, but has now built back up to about 11,000 since the economic crisis of 1997-98. New exercises are scheduled for October.

Japan Jumpstarts Economic Initiatives with Myanmar

Following the ASEAN regional meetings last week, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi announced a visit to Yangon, Myanmar, to begin Aug. 3. This was the first visit by a Japanese Foreign Minister since Shintaro Abe's 1983 trip. Japan is the largest aid donor to Myanmar, and indications are that Tokyo may be prepared to increase its assistance.

Kawaguchi was expected to meet at least two of the military troika, who lead the State Peace and Development Council, Senior Gen. Than Shwe and Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt, as well as her counterpart, Foreign Minister U Win Aung. She also expects to hold talks with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy.

A bilateral economic panel has agreed to compile a report on ways to improve Myanmar's economic development. The Japan Times reported that recommendations are anticipated on a wide range of issues, from financial and monetary affairs to industrial and agricultural sectors. The report is to be presented to senior leaders of both countries by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, UN special envoy to Myanmar, Razali Ishmael, has returned to Myanmar, while Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad is planning a visit on Aug. 18.

Also, the Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai will meet the three senior Myanmar military rulers during a two-day visit to Yangon to try to improve bilateral relations. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra told reporters, "Our core principle, which has never changed, is, we are inseparable neighbors who need to share mutual borders forever," Thaksin said. "A healthy bilateral relationship is our ... foremost priority."

Relations between Bangkok and Yangon deteriorated in May after Thailand massed thousands of troops on their common border for a training exercise. Some Thai military sources insinuated that they were preparing a strike within Myanmar territory, against a rebel militia which has negotiated a ceasefire with Yangon.

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