In this issue:

Chinese Embassy Denounces Washington Attacks on China

Administration Conflict: Effort To Improve China Relations Reported

Great Project for China Water Management Readied

No End in Sight For U.S.-Philippines Defense Exercises

Philippines President Regains Control of Senate

Survey Shows 800 Afghan Civilians Killed by U.S. Bombing

American Bodyguards Now Guarding Afghanistan President

'Bin Bags' Full of U.S. Dollars Going To Pay Off Afghan Warlords

From the Vol.1,No.21 issue of Electronic Intelligence Weekly
Asia News Digest

Chinese Embassy Denounces Washington Attacks on China

On July 22, Xie Feng, Press Counselor at the embassy of the People's Republic of China in Washington, rejected the content of the two U.S. reports attacking China that were released this month (see EIW #20).

Referring to the reports released by the Pentagon and a Congressional Commission on July 12 and July 15, Xie told the press: "Though they are two different reports, the themes, I think, are quite similar. The conclusion these two reports arrived at, is that China poses a threat to—not only to the United States, but also to the world. And I think they are not true to facts.... China has progressed rapidly during the past 20 years or so, but still, China is a developing country with a relatively low GDP per capita.... Our basic national policy right now is to continue concentrating on economic construction so as to further raise the living standard of our people. This is our priority. Second, I would add to that, China has a history of peace-loving. If you have studied Chinese culture, you will find that the essence of Chinese philosophy lies in peace and harmony. And if you have studied Chinese history, you will find a very interesting point, that the map of China right now, compared with the map of China in the Han dynasty, that is 2,000 years ago, they are almost similar. So what does this show? I think this is a manifestation of China having no tradition of foreign expansion....

"I think that this theory of a China threat is really not something new. Through my limited experience in Sino-U.S. relations, I have come across many times that when Sino-U.S. relations have reaped some progress, then some people, who cling to the Cold War mentality, will come back and blow up this China threat theory. But each time they come up, I think they lose more credibility because more and more people, here in the United States as well as in the world, have come to realize more and more clearly that a threat to U.S., the threat to Sino-U.S. relations, and the threat to world peace, doesn't lie in China, but, rather, in these people who have fabricated this China threat."

Administration Conflict: Effort To Improve China Relations Reported

On July 12 and July 15, two separate reports on an alleged threat from the Chinese military were released in Washington, setting off protests from the Chinese government, both in Washington and at home (see preceding item).

Yet, the Washington Post on July 22 reported efforts by the Bush Administration to improve U.S./China military relations, despite the anti-China reports released by the Pentagon and the Congress.

The opposition to the confrontational approach espoused by leading neo-conservative warmongers—JINSA's Michael Ledeen and Stephen Bryan, and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz—continues to show itself in the Administration. The Post reports that the trip by Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter Rodman to China in June "yielded encouraging results." Follwing that trip, a number of moves are under consideration, including "expanded educational exchanges for military officers and resumption of a regular high-level dialogue begun in the 1990s known as the Defense Consultative Talks."

Brent Scowcroft, who was National Security Adviser under President George H.W. Bush, and who now presides over the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB), is quoted by the Post as strongly supporting improving the military-to-military relations with China, calling the Chinese military the "most isolated and therefore most in need of outside exposure" among Chinese power groups.

Great Project for China Water Management Readied

All the technical and field preparations for launching the great "move South water North" project in China, have been fulfilled, reported the People's Daily newspaper on July 22. Vice-Minister of Water Resources Zhang Jiyao announced that the project can be launched at any time. "Consensus has been reached on all aspects of the project, including priorities, layout, water-pollution controls, water-saving measures, protection of ecosystems, investment shares and water pricing," Zhang said.

The first step will be enlarging the dam at the Danjiangkou Reservoir in northwest Hubei Province, which is already the largest manmade lake in Asia. This project, to divert water from water-rich southern China to the arid North—the center of population and China's grain belt—has been under consideration for some 40 years.

No End in Sight For U.S.-Philippines Defense Exercises

As EIW readers were alerted back in March about the nature of a hidden agenda for U.S.-Philippines so-called training exercises, there is no end in sight for continuing and expanding these operations. According to the Philippines Inquirer of July 24, even though the Mutual Logistics Support Agreement between the Bush Administration and the Macapagal-Arroyo government has still not been signed, due to unresolved Constitutional and legal questions raised by Vice President Teofisto Guingona, nine new training exercises and "training packages" have been scheduled to begin in October 2002 and run until June 2003. Philippines Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes made this public on July 24.

Of the 1,200 U.S. troops deployed in the southern Balikatan 02-1 exercises, which officially end July 31, some 400 will stay until June 2003 to take part in five more exercises under the Mutual Defense Treaty. The war games in October 2002 will include counter-terrorism operations, involving thousands of Filipino troops and an undetermined number of U.S. military advisers, who will be deployed in camps north of Manila as well as in the south, Armed Forces chief of staff Gen. Roy Cimatu said. The nine-month program includes night navigation, training of at least two companies of "light reaction teams," or counter-terrorism units, eight army battalions, intelligence cooperation, and classroom work.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected to discuss the upcoming deployments during a visit to the Philippines on Aug. 3, Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes said.

Philippines President Regains Control of Senate

Through a series of fast and loose maneuvers, if not outright purchases of Senators, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo appears to have regained control of the Philippines Senate by 13 seats to the opposition's 10, which will ease pressure on her Administration around such issues as former President Ramos' energy boondoggles à la Enron, as well as keeping the Bush Administration happy that the Philippines will remain acquiescent in its foreign military plans.

Arroyo announced July 25 that Sen. Blas Ople, formerly allied to President Joseph Estrada, has accepted the post of Foreign Minister, which appointment will necessitate his resignation from the Senate. Earlier in the week, Sen. Robert Jaworski struck a deal which could help him with some nasty loan problems, in exchange for moving to Arroyo's party.

U.S. embassy spokeswoman Karel Kelley issued a statement today welcoming Ople's acceptance of the Foreign Minister's post.

Survey Shows 800 Afghan Civilians Killed by U.S. Bombing

A survey conducted by the U.S. aid group, Global Exchange, which sent teams into Afghan villages over a six-month period, reports that more than 800 civilians have been killed in U.S. air strikes. Global Exchange claims that figure is likely to rise as information comes in from more remote areas.

But, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation, this is not upsetting "all" Afghanis. On July 21, BBC News said a spokesman for Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Tayeb Jawad, told the BBC that fewer than 500 civilians were believed to have been killed in U.S. air strikes—a "low figure," considering the size of the military campaign. Tayeb Jawad's statement came after the reports about the Global Exchange survey were known.

At the same time that the Karzai spokesman was rejecting criticism of American military strategy to defeat the Taliban and crush the al-Qaeda, other Afghan leaders were not so kind. Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, a Panjshiri Tajik, said that the deaths of so many civilians are a matter of grave concern. A BBC correspondent reporting on these differing voices, claimed that such a difference could indicate a split in the Karzai government on the issue of the continuing American military campaign, and maybe even of the American military presence.

American Bodyguards Now Guarding Afghanistan President

The events in Afghanistan should be a warning about what would follow an attack on Iraq.

Around July 20, it was admitted that, in view of "credible threats," Afghani President Karzai has replaced his Afghan bodyguards with 46 American soldiers. The shift, by the President of the transitional government, is yet another indication of the steady deterioration of Afghanistan's situation. At the early stages, when Karzai became the chairman of the interim government, he had with him a few Pushtun soldiers from his native province as bodyguards. Later, when the Panjshiri-Tajiks took control of most of the government, his personal security landed in the hands of Defense Minister Mohammad Qasseym Fahim, a Panjshiri-Tajik.

Replacement of these bodyguards by American soldiers means that somewhere along the line, Karzai has become suspicious of the Northern Alliance crowd, overtly represented by the Panjshiri-Tajiks. Talking to a Time magazine correspondent, a commander ostensibly loyal to Defense Minister Fahim, said that the replacement "is an insult to the Defense Minister."

'Bin Bags' Full of U.S. Dollars Going To Pay Off Afghan Warlords

"Quagmire" is not a word that is welcomed by the U.S. Secretary of Defense, or by the Bush Administration.

Jason Burke, reporter for the London Observer, wrote on July 21 that Britain and the U.S. are sending "bin bags" full of dollars to persuade Afghan Pushtun warlords not to rebel against the Karzai government. The Observer says that Foreign Office sources in London confirmed last week that they were aware money was being "circulated" to key Afghan warlords to persuade them to support the government. The Observer has been told by "reliable sources" in Afghanistan and Pakistan that some U.K. money is being distributed, although most of it is American.

One such warlord is Gul Agha Shirzai, Governor of Kandahar province. Another is Hazrat Ali, a commander in Nangarhar province and an opium warlord who was very close to the recently assassinated Vice President Haji Abdul Qadir. Observers claim that, besides these two, other Pushtun warlords have been paid millions of dollars brokered by British and U.S. intelligence.

The Observer points out that previous attempts to buy the loyalty of Afghan warlords have met with mixed results. During the farcical battle of Tora Bora in April, local commanders were paid huge sums to send their own troops into mountainous cave complexes where Osama bin Laden was thought to be hiding. The warlords involved in this operation, including Hazrat Ali, accuse each other of taking bribes from bin Laden to allow him to escape.

In Paktia province, the Americans paid Bacha Khan Zardran, a local commander who seized control of the eastern city of Khost last November, an estimated $400,000 to train and equip fighters to patrol the border with Pakistan. Since then, Karzai has appointed his own man to govern the province and Bacha Khan Zardran has fled into the mountains, from where he is shelling civilian areas to destabilize the provincial government.

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