In this issue:

India and Pakistan Still at the Brink

Anglo-Americans Plan Neo-Colonial Structure for Asia

Indonesia Defense Minister Slams IMF's Nation-Wrecking Policies

Top U.S. Korea Adviser Embraces 'Sunshine' Policy

From the Vol.1,No.14 issue of Electronic Intelligence Weekly
Asia News Digest

India and Pakistan Still at the Brink

Despite last week's visit to Almaty, Kazakhstan, by the two hostile heads of state, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, and subsequent visit to the subcontinent by the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, the war-like situation continues to prevail along the Line of Control (LoC) that separates India and Pakistan in the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir.

In Almaty, both Musharraf and Vajpayee met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin. It is evident from reports that neither succeeded in bringing the two almost-warring heads of state any closer to reducing their troop buildups at the borders. In fact, President Putin's attempt to get both leaders to Moscow was aborted by the Indian Prime Minister. While Musharraf showed a willingness to talk, India closed the door to any further talks. Vajapyee's unwillingness to talk has been described by former Indian Prime Minister I.K. Gujral, as a "sign of weakness."

Armitage's trip is centered on one theme: To work out a formulation for the surveillance and monitoring of the LoC, to the satisfaction of both sides. President Musharraf's proposal that U.S. troops be stationed as monitors along the LoC was turned down at Almaty by the Vajpayee, who, in return, offered the concept of joint patrols by the Indians and Pakistanis to attain the same goal. However, the Indian Prime Minister's offer has been turned down by President Musharraf. It is evident that at this point Armitage is working out a plan whereby electronic surveillance and satellites could be used for verification against cross-border infiltration.

With the monsoon season about three weeks away from the Kashmir Valley, there is apprehension that India may launch a surgical type of operation to dismantle the 70-75 terrorist camps that exist in the Pakistan-held part of Jammu and Kashmir, and eliminate the 3,000 or so terrorists who are waiting to cross the LoC. Some observers point out that such an operation would take seven to 10 days to complete, and must start by June 20 or so.

It is almost a certainty that such a surgical operation will then expand, if Pakistan seizes such a strike as an opening to cross the international boundary. That may, then, start a full-fledged war. With almost a million troops and some 5,000 tanks along the borders, the war may turn out to be messy and extremely brutal.

Next week, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will be on the subcontinent. This is considered the last serious external effort to stop the war before the monsoon arrives. Besides the monitoring of the LoC, Rumsfeld is also expected to discuss with both sides a phased timetable, beginning with de-escalation of troop levels along the LoC and dismantling of the terrorist camps.

Anglo-Americans Plan Neo-Colonial Structure for Asia

A review of the coverage of the "Asian Wehrkunde" meeting in Singapore reveals that the Anglo-American Utopians are building a colonial structure for Asia. The London-based International Institute for Stragegic Studies (IISS)-sponsored meeting in Singapore May 31-June 2, promoted as an "Asian Wehrkunde," after the yearly defense conference in Munich, brought together Defense Ministers and military experts from across Asia, together with the U.S., the UK, Canada, and France. Paul Dibb, head of Australia's Strategic and Defense Studies Centre, in The Australian June 5, revealed the thinking behind the meeting: The only existing structure in Asia for defense issues is the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which includes the same basic group of nations, but is represented by foreign ministers, not defense ministers, and is too dominated by the Asian-style respect for sovereignty and the principle of non-intervention in sovereign affairs.

Now, according to Dibb, with the war on terrorism, what is needed is a defense-oriented organization capable of "conflict resolution mechanisms" to act preemptively in pending crises, such as India/Pakistan, China/Taiwan, and the Koreas, not a "diplomatic talk group" like ARF. Japan's Minister of Defense recommended the creation of an "Asian-Pacific Defense Ministerial Meeting" as a step toward a making the structure permanent.

U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz and Former Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew keynoted the event, with diatribes about terrorists running wild across Asia, in need of military action. Wolfowitz, a leading member of the "permanent warfare" faction in the Administration, speaking to the Hoover Institute June 5, described the request from England's foremost oligarchical think tank, the IISS, to cooperate in building such a conference, and making it permanent. Asia, he said, does not have "the kinds of institutions that grew up during the Cold War in Europe, particularly NATO, and the structures related to NATO." The fact that the East Asian region is now peaceful, "will be challanged in the coming decades, because the great economic growth of East Asia, particularly the extraordinary economic growth of China, are going to pose challanges." Wolfowitz called his Singapore speech "The Gathering Storm," a phrase borrowed from Winston Churchill, which he considered appropriate because, he claimed, "this evil of terrorism that has grown up in the world in a particularly massive scale over the last 10 years, threatens some of the same kinds of evil and destruction that fascism and Nazism threatened nearly a century ago."

Indonesia Defense Minister Slams IMF's Nation-Wrecking Policies

Kwik Kian Gie, Deputy Chairman of President Megawati's PDI-P party and Minister of National Development and Planning delivered a speech on June 1, in honor of the nation's adoption of the ecumenical "Pancasila" doctrine, in which he challenged the party to reclaim its sovereignty from the financial and political domination of the IMF.

Kwik, who is well known as perhaps the country's most resolute nationalist economist, warned that to continue tolerating IMF rules and policies, would lead Indonesia toward further economic bankruptcy and disorder, the Jakarta Post reported June 3. At the same time, he said Indonesia faced threats of national disintegration pointing to separatist movements in Maluku and Papua provinces, who are better armed than the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI). He reported that in a recent cabinet meeting, it was revealed that TNI and the National Police were in disarray, with only about 30-50% of its equipment operational.

He challenged PDI-P to participate in a national movement to restore the country's greatness, asking: Are we capable of rebuilding the national integrity and regaining the sovereignty and the honor of our nation?

Top U.S. Korea Adviser Embraces 'Sunshine' Policy

Former President George Bush's top Korea adviser Donald Gregg, in Seoul for the World Cup, gave a Korea Times interview June 4, in fulsome praise of President Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine" policy toward the North. He even took a swipe at President George W. Bush's labelling Pyongyang as "evil." Gregg, a former Iran-Contra thug and intimate of "Clash of Civilizations" guru, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, used to working in the dark, not the sunshine, is positioning himself as the handler for whoever wins the South Korean Presidential race in December, while reminding the Bush, Jr. circuits that there is money to be made in Korea.

Gregg "lavished praise on President Kim and his Sunshine initiative," the Times reported. "It is a great success and the idea of the Sunshine Policy is profoundly correct," said Gregg. "It is a difficult time for him, but in the perspective of history, Kim will be remembered very positively for his opening up of dialogue with North Korea and for his management of the economic recovery." He also praised Roh Moo-hyun, the labor lawyer just named Presidential candidate of Kim's Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), saying that Americans should not worry about his "leftist" leanings.

Gregg, U.S. Ambassador to Korea in 1989-93, under Bush I, is now chairman of the New York Korea Society. Having visited Pyongyang in April, Gregg then said that Pyongyang is "very sensitive about high pressure and insulating language from the U.S." Noting that former U.S. President Richard Nixon shook hands with Mao Tse-tung, despite the fact that the Chinese leader had done "evil" things, Gregg said, "We should not be reluctant to reach out to Kim Jong-il because he has done something in the past." He even dismissed the possibility that a crisis could erupt next year on the Korean peninsula over nuclear inspection and missile tests, the hobbyhorse of the Republican right, saying these crises are not inevitable but both sides have to start talking very seriously to avert them.

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