In this issue:

Iran Conservatives Win Pyhrric Victory in Elections

Japan and Iran Sign Huge Oil Deal

UN Official Calls for Iraqi Elections Before Year's End

Ayatollah Al-Sistani Accepts Delay in Iraq Elections

Kurds Opposing Interim Constitution

Danger of Iraqi Civil War Openly Debated

Riots at Al-Haram Al-Sharif (Temple Mount) Protesting Apartheid Wall

From Volume 3, Issue Number 9 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Mar. 2, 2004
Mideast News Digest

Iran Conservatives Win Pyhrric Victory in Elections

Although the conservative bloc has won at least 120 seats in the 290-member Iranian Parliament, according to Interior Ministry figures, and reformers, together with "independents," received fewer than 65 seats, the fact that the reformers' election boycott succeeded, especially in Tehran, was an important victory for the latter. The conservatives need 146 seats for a majority, which the final results will certainly confirm they have.

The voter turnout was between 40-45%, the Interior Ministry said. This is way down from the 67% in 2000. In Tehran, the turnout was at 28%!

Reformist Ali Shakourirad called the low turnout "a big defeat for conservatives."

Reportedly, the conservatives are putting the squeeze on Interior Ministry officials to massage the figures, to make the turnout look higher. One official said, speaking on condition of anonymity, that his offices were "under tremendous pressure" from various conservative institutions to artificially inflate the turnout.

One leading member of Iran's main reformist party conceded defeat, saying reformers would retain no more than 60-100 seats. "If free elections had been held, we would have won a majority with 200 seats," Mostafa Tajzadeh he said. Leaders of the main reform party stated they would continue to work with President Khatami, and would restructure their party, to work more closely with the population.

As for the political direction of the new Parliament, some conservative leaders promised to deal with the economic crisis, but the Guardians Council, which rigged the candidates lists, said the new MPs should focus on "upholding the divine religion of Islam," "encouraging spirituality and morality" and "fighting all forms of corruption and evil."

One factor boosting the participation in some areas, was the turnout of minorities to vote: the Iranian Zoroastrians and Jews in the cities of Yazd, Ardakan, and Taft, and Iranian Christians throughout the country. According to the quota system in Iran, five seats are reserved for these minorities, three for Christians and the other two for Jews and Zoroastrians.

Japan and Iran Sign Huge Oil Deal

Japan and Iran are to reach agreement on a project for development of the giant Azadegan oilfield located 80 kilometers west of the southwestern city of Ahvaz (Khuzestan Province). An informed source at the Oil Ministry said the two sides, after four years of lengthy talks, are to enter into a deal for the development of the Azadegan oilfield, which covers 20 square km. In the course of her January visit to Tehran, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi and her Iranian counterpart Kamal Kharazi voiced their respective countries' willingness to resume talks on the oilfield until they reach a satisfactory result. It is estimated to contain 35 to 45 billion barrels of oil in place, with the capacity to yield about five billion barrels of oil.

UN Official Calls for Iraqi Elections Before Year's End

Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN Secretary General's envoy to Iraq, presented his report on Feb. 23, which said there was broad consensus for a provisional government to be formed by June 30. But his report also declared that the U.S. plan for regional caucuses "does not appear to enjoy sufficient support among Iraqis to be a viable option." At the end, it says Brahimi believes "credible and unifying elections" could be held in January 2005. According to the report, a political agreement on setting up the mechanism for writing a constitution could be achieved by May. That would mean, Brahimi reasons, "Elections could be held by the end of this year or shortly thereafter."

Brahimi notes that the Coalition and Iraq's Governing Council would need to act more quickly on providing security for a return of UN workers. The report warns that tension over the election process could lead to violence or civil strife and urges all those involved in Iraq's transfer of power to quickly agree on issues like security. It calls for an independent electoral commission to be set up immediately.

"We both agreed that the electoral issue is extremely important," UN Secretary General Kofi Annan told reporters after meeting with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in Japan. "We need to find a mechanism, working of course with the Iraqis, helping the Iraqis determine a mechanism for establishing an interim or transitional government so that the transfer of power which is anticipated on the 30th of June will go ahead and that we work with them to organize elections in the not-too-distant future." He again stressed security: "The UN has always been ready to play its role ... on condition that security will not be an impediment."

The same day the report was presented, another senior Iraqi cleric warned that delaying national elections would be a "timebomb that could explode at any minute." "Without elections, our national institutions will remain shaken, unrecognized, and distrusted by the people," Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi al-Modaresi told reporters in Karbala in central Iraq. The uncertainty "makes us fear for the future of Iraq" and the possibility of "civil war," he said.

Ayatollah Al-Sistani Accepts Delay in Iraq Elections

Iraq's Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani said on Feb. 26 that he would agree to a delay in general elections until the end of 2004, provided that the United Nations guaranteed the elections by that date. Washington's plan envisaged elections by the end of 2005.

In his statement, Sistani noted that the UN had said elections could be held by the end of 2004 if preparations began immediately. "The religious authority demands clear guarantees like a resolution from the UN Security Council that elections will be held by that time, to assure the Iraqi people that elections will not be subjected to more procrastination and delays," said the statement issued by his office in the holy city of Najaf.

Meanwhile, Washington continues to stick to the June 30 handover date, although there is no agreement on how the transitional body should be selected. In his statement, Sistani said he was concerned that the mechanism for choosing an interim government could be "trapped by the obstacle of ethnic, sectarian, and political quotas." He demanded that the interim government should have strictly limited powers, and should prepare Iraq for free elections "without being allowed to take major decisions that could be considered as binding to the elected government."

Lakhdar Brahimi, who led the UN mission to Iraq this month, is reportedly set to return within weeks, to help negotiate a solution to this problem.

Kurds Opposing Interim Constitution

Kurdish leaders in Iraq are opposing all proposals so far for an interim Constitution to govern Iraq's transition towards general elections at the end of 2004, the Washington Post reported Feb. 21. This is creating more headaches for Paul Bremer, who is already facing Shi'ite opposition to his and the UN's election postponement schedule.

The Kurds are demanding broad autonomy, including the right to control military forces in Kurdish areas and the freedom to reject laws passed by the national government, Kurdish officials said Feb. 20. This report has been backed up by other, regional sources. Turkish and Arab leaders oppose most of the Kurds' demands, on grounds that they would effectively preserve an autonomous Kurdish mini-state in northern Iraq with its own army, laws, tax system, judiciary, and parliament.

Bremer has been meeting with Arab and Kurdish leaders in an effort to break the deadlock, but the Kurds will not give up what they enjoyed under the last 12 years of Saddam Hussein's regime. "Our side is seeking a voluntary union with Iraq, but this voluntary union comes with the precondition that the system of government in Iraq is both federal and democratic, allowing us to maintain the local control we have had for more than a decade," said Qabad Talabani, the son of Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani.

The Kurds outlined their demands in a four-page proposed additional chapter to the interim Constitution, posted Feb. 20 on the website of the Kurdistan Regional Government. It calls for the retention of local control over Kurdish militiamen, the Peshmerga, to be organized into a new force called the Iraqi Kurdistan National Guard. The proposal calls for the Kurdish Parliament to "raise, regulate, recruit, and officer" the National Guard. Although the Kurds would allow the Guard units to be under the nominal authority of a civilian Defense Minister in Baghdad, the Kurdish regional government would maintain effective command.

The document also says that no soldiers from other parts of the country would be deployed in Kurdish areas without the approval of the Kurdish Parliament. "It is a guarantee for the self-defense of the Kurdish people," said Rowsch Shaways, the president of the regional parliament, the Kurdistan National Assembly. "The people of Kurdistan will not accept the new Iraqi army to be deployed in the region of Kurdistan at this moment in time," Qabad Talabani said. "It's an unfortunate reality we face."

According to the interim Constitution being drafted, armed groups that are not part of the national security services would be banned. The U.S., which relied on the Peshmerga militarily during the war, now says they cannot maintain their separate existence, because that would encourage the Shi'ites to do the same with their Badr Brigades.

Another point raised by the Kurds, is that they demand that the Kurdistan National Assembly approve any laws not dealing with foreign policy, before they take effect in Kurdish areas. The Kurds want to keep their own judiciary and penal code. They demand that Iraq's permanent Constitution be approved not only by a national referendum, but also by a majority in Kurdistan.

Further sticking points are the Kurds' demand that they control local oil revenue, and their calls for protection against population relocation. They want all natural resources in Kurdistan to belong to the Kurdish regional administration, which would receive a share of Iraq's oil sales in proportion to the number of Kurds in the country's population. They want the interim Constitution to provide for displaced Kurds to return to their homes. This includes a demand for redrawing the map, particularly regarding oil-rich Kirkuk. "We need to reverse Saddam's ethnic-cleansing policies," Talabani said.

Danger of Iraqi Civil War Openly Debated

The Turkmen member of the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), Songul Chapouk, told Al Ahram on Feb. 25 that civil war could break out, if any ethnic or religious group felt it was being discriminated against. She specifically noted the issue of Kirkuk, where the Turkmen are being expelled.

At the same time, a group of 30 Iraqis, including two IGC members, signed "The Iraqi Religious Accord," calling on all groups to work together to prevent civil war. The document was drafted on the initiative of the Anglican Church, whose envoy, Canon Andrew White, had been sent to Iraq.

Fuelling tensions further, Kurdish activists have announced that they have collected 1.7 million signatures on a petition for a referendum on the future of the northern Kurdish region of Iraq.

Riots at Al-Haram Al-Sharif (Temple Mount) Protesting Apartheid Wall

After a week of demonstrations met by Israeli violence against protesters against the barrier wall, "rioting" broke out on al-Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount), allegedly after hundreds of youths, following Friday prayers, began throwing rocks at Israeli forces below, Reuters reported on Feb. 23. A couple also landed near the Western Wall (often misnamed the "Wailing Wall"), and it was cleared of worshippers. Police spokesman Gil Kleinman said officers entered al-Haram al-Sharif in the courtyard of Al-Aqsa Mosque and began firing rubber bullets and throwing stun grenades. It is not known if there were any Palestinian casualties. "There was no provocation for such an Israeli attack," said Adnan Husseini, director of the Islamic Waqf, adding: "This is despicable and unacceptable."

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