In this issue:

Moscow Anti-War Rally Calls for LaRouche

Russian Analyst: Bush Should Dump Rumsfeld and Cheney Now

Ivanov Presents Joint Russian-French-German Approach to Iraq

Russian Government Attacks 'Massive' Armtwisting of Iraq Inspectors

The Fondest Idea of Count Sergei Witte

Central Asia Opposes War Against Iraq

Russia Considering Ruble-Based Monetary Union

Cooperation in Space Exploration Between Russia and Europe

Apollo Astronaut Says Bush Should Ask Putin for Help

Temporary Measures To Keep Space Station Manned Taken by Russian Government

Chernoy Promotes Russian Version of 'Christian Zionism'

From Volume 2, Issue Number 8 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Feb. 24, 2003
Russia and Central Asia News Digest

Moscow Anti-War Rally Calls for LaRouche

Among the many millions of people who demonstrated around the world on Saturday, Feb. 15, against an Iraq war, was a group that picketed the U.S. embassy in Russia. Members of the Narod Rossii (People of Russia) organization joined that rally with signs in English: "America Needs Not Bush But LaRouche," and "Instead of the War—LaRouche's New Bretton Woods."

This news service has received photos of the rally, showing Russians carrying these signs alongside Russian-language slogans like "Putin, Get Tougher on America; People of the World Trust Russia" and "May the Killers Be Damned!"

Russian Analyst: Bush Should Dump Rumsfeld and Cheney Now

"Bush should dump Rumsfeld and Cheney now; they are to blame for getting the President into this terrible mess," said the vice-director of the U.S.-Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Victor Kremenyuk, in a Feb. 19 interview with the Russian information service strana.ru. The statement is interesting above all because it probably reflects discussions inside the U.S., that Russian informants have been picking up.

Kremenyuk noted that "the war-pushers Rumsfeld and Cheney have put Bush into a very difficult position." On the one hand, "Germany, France in NATO, and Germany, France, and Russia in the Security Council, have made it clear that if the U.S. goes for a unilateral military action, the price will be extremely high." On the other hand, it is politically very difficult for Bush to pull back now. But, Kremenyuk said "I am not sure Bush Jr. will really go ahead with it," because this would mean "losing Europe, Russia, China and the entire Arab world." Plus "it is completely obvious, that the U.S. economy is in big trouble." Under these circumstances, and in light of the coming election, "Bush needs to get rid of the old crew of Rumsfeld-Cheney, and put in a young, new command, that can give the Republicans a new breath of fresh air."

Asked why Bush Sr. doesn't intervene to stop the war drive, Kremanyuk said he was "absolutely sure" that it was Bush Sr. who pushed the "Axis of Evil" policy and the Iraq war policy onto Bush Jr. After all, "Sept. 11 was like manna from heaven for Bush Sr." Now it is time for Bush Jr. to dump these policies, Kremenyuk said.

Ivanov Presents Joint Russian-French-German Approach to Iraq

Writing in the Feb. 13 Financial Times, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said, "Russia, France, and Germany recently presented a common approach to the settlement of the situation in Iraq. Many observers view this initiative as a new phenomenon in world politics, which goes beyond the Iraqi crisis.

"That three countries that were once on opposite sides of the Cold War divide now support a joint initiative on such an acute international crisis, shows just how rapidly and completely the international system has changed since the late 1980s. Historically, of course, the interests of Russia and West European countries have often coincided. After all, Russian culture and civilization are European....

"The settlement of the Iraqi crisis is a significant problem.... The world community, via the United Nations Security Council, has set itself a clear task to find out whether Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction. Like the overwhelming majority of states, Russia believes this task can and should be fulfilled by peaceful means. Force should only be used as a last resort to settle this issue. It is clear that an armed attack against Iraq would destabilize the Middle East and the world in general. Such instability would compromise the common struggle against international terrorism, and there is no excuse for that.

"Attempts to portray this initiative as an anti-American maneuver are completely unfounded. Those who make such suggestions are either unable to discern new trends in world politics or are unable to abandon a Cold War mentality with slogans such as 'Those who are not with us are against us.' Actually, the Franco-German-Russian statement emphasizes our readiness to discuss different ways to solve the Iraqi problem with the U.S. and other countries in the spirit of partnership and mutual respect.

"Moscow, Paris, and Berlin seek to preserve the unity of the international community, particularly within the framework of the UN Security Council, rather than to undermine it.... The Iraqi problem is not the only one facing the international community. All states must work hard to respond to new threats and challenges. The current magnitude of those threats warrants common action. No single state can deal with them alone.

"It is this objective that underlies the joint statement by Russia, France, and Germany. We hope that it will be heard and understood correctly."

Russian Government Attacks 'Massive' Armtwisting of Iraq Inspectors

Russia's Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, issued a statement to the press in Moscow charging the Anglo-American war party (while not naming names or specific governments) with "exerting massive pressure on the inspectors." He said this is done apparently with the aim of either forcing the UN weapons inspectors to quit, pull out of Iraq (as in 1998), or to deliver reports that would strengthen the arguments for military actions.

In an interview with Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Ivanov spoke of the use of Russia's veto at the UN. "It's an extreme measure to be used in a responsible way," he said. "We are not against a second resolution in principle, but we must see what purpose it would serve. To be clear: if the resolution aims to reinforce the mandate of the inspectors, we will be ready to look at it. If it is designed to allow the use of force, we believe it would be detrimental." He concluded, "Russia's intention is not to divide the Security Council but, on the contrary, to maintain maximum unity."

The Fondest Idea of Count Sergei Witte

The Russian government is now carrying out one of the fondest ideas of the great Count Sergei Witte, the leading Russian statesmen of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, for a greatly upgraded Russian-German-French relationship, a leading figure of the USA-Canada Institute in Moscow told EIR Feb. 14. Asked what he anticipated the Russian government would do, at the UN Security Council, if an Anglo-American resolution is introduced authorizing the use of force, he responded, "Follow Berlin and Paris. This is the policy of Sergei Witte."

Asked what he meant by referring to Witte, the Russian statesman from more than 100 years ago, the strategist responded: "Witte's dream, during the war with Japan and at other times, was for an alliance with France and Germany. Witte was the biggest genius in the history of Russian politics. He concentrated mainly on France, but his interest was not only France, but also Germany."

He added, "President Putin is looking very much at Witte. So are other people in and around the Kremlin. The focus now, is on Berlin and Paris.

"I am in a minority among Russian strategists, who are absolutely convinced that an Iraq war will not happen. I simply can not imagine it; I think we are witnessing a gigantic American bluff," commented the strategist. He added: "The Americans know, whatever they may say in public, that an Iraq war now, would not be like the Gulf War of 1991, nor like the first months of the Afghanistan war. The Iraqi population, of 22 million, will not desert to the steppes. The Americans will suffer casualties, much more than the very few dead in these earlier wars. That is one factor."

The source went on: "The other factor is Turkey. A war will split Turkey into two parts, the Kurdish issue will break up the country, if this war happens. I absolutely agree with LaRouche, that the Turks are happy about the French-Belgian-German obstruction in NATO, since they don't want this war."

In his view, "The reality is that the Americans wanted to launch this war in April of last year, and that would have been the right time, but Cheney made that tour of the Arab countries, and didn't get the reaction he wanted. In my view, everything since that, is one of the greatest bluffs in history.... In practice ... Iraq will enter the American sphere of influence, which doesn't make me happy, but it won't happen with a war. In any case, be aware that the international agenda will soon be faced with a far more important matter, namely, North Korea, and we Russians are preparing that diplomatically, and are being very cautious."

Central Asia Opposes War Against Iraq

Despite the presence of the U.S. military in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, the Central Asian leaders have spoken out against the U.S. plan to attack Iraq. Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Askar Aytmatov on Feb. 12 joined the chorus of critics of Washington's Iraq stance, announcing Bishkek's support for a diplomatic initiative by Russia, France, and Germany to avert war. Both Kyrgyz and Kazakh diplomats have stated that the Iraq crisis should be handled within the UN Security Council.

According to media reports, Central Asia's great concern about the Iraq war is that the breaking out of a war would decrease U.S. interest in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. A stable, relatively prosperous Afghanistan is what Central Asia requires for maintaining its own stability.

At present, the Central Asian states are struggling to keep in check the underground radical Islamic groups, including Hizb-ut-Tahrir. On Feb. 12, Kyrgyz security officials had voiced concern about an increase in Hizb activity in Kyrgyzstan.

Russia Considering Ruble-Based Monetary Union

In an article entitled "Moscow's New Secret Weapon," the Moscow Times of Feb. 20 reported that the Russian government is considering making the ruble fully convertible, and using it as the basis of a currency union with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Belarus. Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov reportedly discussed the idea of a unified currency system for the Eurasian Economic Union, at its summit on Feb. 19 in Moscow.

Cooperation in Space Exploration Between Russia and Europe

After many months of negotiations, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and the Director General of the European Space Agency, (ESA) Antonio Rodota, signed an agreement on space cooperation in Paris Feb. 12. It supersedes a 1990 agreement between ESA and the Soviet Union, and could have significant economic and strategic ramifications. The United States has been, up until this time, the major bilateral partner of both ESA and the Russian Space Agency.

All of the launch sites on Russian territory are at high northern latitudes. Use of ESA's equatorial launch site at Korou, French Guyana, next to Brazil, would allow Soyuz rockets to carry more payload, by taking advantage of extra momentum gained from Earth's full rotational speed at the equator. ESA indicated that it is also interested in including the Russian space agency in its long-term planning effort begun last fall, dubbed "Aurora."

Apollo Astronaut Says Bush Should Ask Putin for Help

Apollo 12 astronaut Alan Bean has proposed that President Bush personally ask Russian President Putin for help keeping the International Space Station manned and functioning, while the Space Shuttle fleet is grounded. Paraphrasing President Franklin Roosevelt's comments about the World War II Lend Lease program, Beam noted, "If your house is on fire, it's okay to ask your neighbor for help—he'll loan you the hose."

Bean spent months in the Soviet Union as a back-up crew member for the 1975 American-Russian Apollo-Soyuz mission. He said that the Russians "will respond" to such an appeal. Such high-level diplomacy, Bean says, "would change the opinions of the American people, and, particularly of the Russian people."

Temporary Measures To Keep Space Station Manned Taken by Russian Government

The grounding of the Space Shuttle fleet has left the Russian Soyuz vehicle as the only way to transfer the crew aboard the space station, and the unmanned Russian Progress vehicles as the only way to deliver supplies. Russia was already prepared to launch three Progress ships this year (the first launched two weeks ago), and two Soyuz craft (the first in April) to bring a fresh emergency return vehicle to the station, each with a lifetime of six months. Without the Shuttle, an additional Progress would be needed, and five or six would be needed in 2004, were the Shuttle fleet still grounded.

The Russian Space Agency (RSA) does not have the funds to produce the extra vehicles. In addition, if the April launch is used to bring an astronaut and a cosmonaut to the station for a long-term stay, and not simply to rotate the old Soyuz for a new one, the Russians will lose millions of dollars that the European Space Agency planned to pay them for a short visit to the station by a European astronaut. The Russian Space Agency's budget depends upon payments for foreign "guest cosmonauts."

On Feb. 20, reports Agence France Presse, RSA head Yuri Koptev stated that a proposal has been made to ESA for one of their astronauts to take the place of a Russian cosmonaut on a long-term (four-month-plus) stay on the space station, in return for a "certain financial contribution" needed to service the facility if the Shuttle fleet remains grounded. Koptev said such a proposal was supported by NASA, which cannot give the Russians any money, thanks to the Iran Nonproliferation Act, which would require a Presidential waiver.

Chernoy Promotes Russian Version of 'Christian Zionism'

Marc Rich's trainee Mikhail Chernoy, who created Russian Aluminium, the number two producer in the world, organized a Moscow conference on Dec. 19, 2002, to create the Russian Orthodox Church equivalent of "Christian Zionism."

The movement was launched around a new book, put out by the Mikhail Chernoy Foundation in Israel, called Babylon and Jerusalem: the Biblical View of the Middle East Conflict, which they believe will lay the basis for "a strategic alliance between Russia and Israel." The Chernoy foundation is headed by Dmitri Radyshevsky, a Russian graduate of the Harvard Divinity School.

In presenting the book, Radyshevshky told the Russian Orthodox Church, "One cannot believe in the Bible and its promise of Israel's rebirth as key to the Messianic Era and at the same time support creating a state for Arafat." The book includes articles by Jan Willem van der Hoeven, founder of the fundie International Christian Embassy in Jerusalem, and by rightwing fanatic, and Netanyahu frontman, Avigdor Lieberman, head of a Russian emigré party, Yisrael Beiteinu (Our Home Israel).

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