In this issue:

How Africa's AIDS Pandemic Will Lead to Armies of Child Soldiers

New Assassination and Genocidal War Threats in D.R. Congo

Belgian Daily Alleges Plot to Assassinate Congo President Kabila

New Genocidal War Threatens in D.R. Congo—UN Denies It

Bush and Powell to Hold Mini-Summit on Congo Peace in NY

Belgian Ministers To Go to Congo in Early October

Liberia: UN Security Council Approves 15,000 Peacekeepers

Ivorian Ex-Rebels Suspend Role in Government, Then Reconsider

France and UN Try To Make Ivorian Government Work

U.S. Pressures Kenya to Adopt Executive Prime Ministership

African Leader at Cancun WTO Meeting Reports U.S. Threats

From Volume 2, Issue Number 39 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Sept. 30, 2003
Africa News Digest

How Africa's AIDS Pandemic Will Lead to Armies of Child Soldiers

Michel de Groulard, UNAIDS' chief adviser for Africa, who spoke about Africa's AIDS pandemic in an interview in Paris, on the eve of a major meeting on the subject, said that the decimation of the rural workforce creates a vicious cycle, creating food shortages, News24.com reported Sept. 18. It is a cycle because nutrition is the first line of defense against HIV infection, and the basis for prolonging the productive lives of those already infected. The dying leave behind an army of AIDS orphans, whose numbers are expected to reach 20 million by the end of this decade. "These children fall prey to all kinds of organizations and manipulators, who can turn them into child soldiers or eventually terrorists.... This especially concerns southern Africa—Mozambique, Zimbabwe and to a lesser degree Botswana," he said. Meanwhile, the security forces of these countries are getting progressively weaker. A military conference in Gaborone, the capital of Botswana, was told a week earlier that in southern African countries, as many as 60 percent of troops have HIV, according to News24.

A six-day meeting in Nairobi of the International Conference on AIDS and STIs (sexually transmitted infections) in Africa (ICASA) began Sept. 21.

New Assassination and Genocidal War Threats in D.R. Congo

A new genocide is being prepared in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to a report from the Missionary Service News Agency (MISNA). An RLAI wire of Sept. 22, reporting the warning from MISNA, concludes with this comment: "This confluence of events is... very troubling: the report of preparations for the assassination of Joseph Kabila in December at latest, the rising insecurity on the National No. 1 and in the capital, and now MISNA's alert of a new war against D.R. Congo." The following reports provide some of the details.

Belgian Daily Alleges Plot to Assassinate Congo President Kabila

The Belgian daily Le Derniere Heure reported Sept. 10 that the Presidents of Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon have hatched a plot in which a U.S. mercenary would be used to fire a Soleil missile from Congo-Brazzaville to bring down President Kabila's plane. Is there really a plot, or is the story just an attempt to destabilize relations between Kabila and the Presidents of Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon?

The report has created an "icy climate" between the two Presidents and President Kabila, says an RLAI wire of Sept. 15. Both Presidents have denied the charge. The border between the Congos is now closed. The wire says that, should such a plot be executed, it would trigger a genocide greater than any seen in Africa.

The plot is said to be in favor a partisan of former President Mobutu. Le Derniere Heure named two such partisans, citing "some well known and, generally, well informed Belgian sources, which required anonymity," and said the first rumors of the plot go back to the end of July. (It is of possible interest that Belgium, since late July, has had the head of Mobutu's Garde Civile, General Kpama Baramoto Kata, in detention, ostensibly because of a visa problem. He arrived in Brussels from the U.S.)

Gabon's President Omar Bongo has responded by calling for a summit including himself, the Presidents of both Congos, and the President of Angola, to discuss questions of peace and security, according to diplomatic sources cited by RLAI. These sources say the summit will be held, in the next days, in either Brazzaville or Kinshasa.

New Genocidal War Threatens in D.R. Congo—UN Denies It

MISNA warned of a new genocide in D.R. Congo in a release of Sept. 20. MISNA makes the following points:

** Monsignor Xavier Rusengo, Vicar-General of the Archdiocese of Bukavu (North Kivu Province), sent a letter to his flock Sept. 18, stating, "Rumors of a new war have been circulating for some time.... In some part of the diocese, young people are being recruited and supplied with weapons, ammunition and telephones... We have also learned that for some time now, men from our community have been meeting to prepare new attacks."

** Voice of the Voiceless (VSV), a Congolese human rights association, issued a document Sept. 19 reporting growing insecurity in North and South Kivu provinces. It also said, "In some areas insecurity is extremely high, and many people have already left their villages and are converging on the main urban centers... [T]he uncertainty is fostered by the circulation of weapons among Rwandan-speaking civilians." VSV says that elements of the pro-Rwandan Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD-Goma) and of the Rwandan Patriotic Army (APR) have been distributing weapons. RCD-Goma is a part of the national unity government in Kinshasa and APR is officially supposed to have left the Congo. VSV says that the groups that have fought against RCD-Goma and its allies are also rearming, referring to Forces for the Defense of Democracy (FDD), elements linked to the ex-FAR (Rwandan Armed Forces), and Interahamwe. North and South Kivu border on Rwanda.

** The Bishop of Kalemie (Katanga, far southeast Congo), Dominique Kimpinde, in a Sept. 1 letter, reported a "massive invasion by Rwandan subjects" of the area surrounding Kalemie, on the border with South Kivu. He says groups of men pass through villages and towns in civilian clothes and only don military uniforms and take out their weapons when they are out of town.

Patricia Tomé, spokeswoman for the UN Mission in D.R. Congo, told MISNA Sept. 20 that it wasn't happening. "We have received no reports, and we have a lot of men stationed in that part of the country.... In my opinion, the many rumors that have reached us only serve to fuel the tension among the civilian population."

The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) and the Lotus Group issued a press release Sept. 22 reinforcing MISNA's warning by reporting the arrival at Bangboka airport (Kisangani) of weapons and ammunition Sept. 4 and 8 on flights of Victoria Air from Goma (Rwandan border). The release also reports that troops are being concentrated in Kisangani and in towns along the Kisangani-Bukavu axis.

Bush and Powell to Hold Mini-Summit on Congo Peace in NY

U.S. President George Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell were scheduled to hold a mini-summit of central and southern African heads of state on the peace process in D.R. Congo, around the opening of the 58th session of the UN General Assembly. Congo President Joseph Kabila was to participate in both events, according to Digitalcongo.net Sept. 17.

Belgian Ministers To Go to Congo in Early October

Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel and the Belgian Minister of Cooperation will be in Kinshasa Oct. 5 to 9 to work on the resumption of Belgium's former, privileged relationship with Congo. The Belgian view is that Congo is on the right path and there is reason for optimism.

Liberia: UN Security Council Approves 15,000 Peacekeepers

The UN Security Council unanimously approved Sept. 19 a force of up to 15,000 peacekeepers for Liberia. The resolution was proposed by the United States. The force may operate under a Chapter 7 mandate, giving it the widest powers available under the UN Charter. Earlier in the week, Jacques Paul Klein, chief UN envoy for Liberia, said, "The general consensus is that this is a failed state. Now we have to rebuild the state."

Monrovia's central electricity supply will be restored within a few days, EU rep to Liberia Geoffrey Rudd told reporters Sept 17. It will take longer to repair the network of power lines, most of which are broken. Monrovia, a city of almost a million—before displaced persons are counted—has not had a central electricity supply for more than 10 years, thanks to civil war.

Ivorian Ex-Rebels Suspend Role in Government, Then Reconsider

In Cote D'Ivoire, the ex-rebels have suspended their participation in the government and in the disarmament process. This was announced Sept. 23 by MPCI Secretary General Guillaume Soro at the conclusion of a conference of the leaderships of the three rebel organizations in Bouake. They say the move is to protest the blocking of the Marcoussis peace accords by President Laurent Gbagbo.

The Marcoussis accords contradict the country's Constitution, including its Presidential system. The accords are also at odds with the personal passion of President Gbagbo and his wife Simone to keep northern Ivorians in the status of second-class citizens.

The ex-rebel communique calls on signatories to the Marcoussis accords "to fulfill their responsibilities" and warns that a "return to war is no utopia."

The foreign secretary of the MPCI, Mamadou Diomandé, then announced in Paris Sept. 24 that the MPCI is inclined to reconsider its withdrawal from government, in light of the "vigorous" reaction of the guarantors of the Marcoussis accords, PANA reported.

France and UN Try To Make Ivorian Government Work

France and the UN are working to create an integrated, functioning government in Cote D'Ivoire. Whether it will succeed is far from clear, especially in light of the "algebraic" methods being used. The appointment of the ministers of defense and security by the country's National Security Council (CNS) has now received acceptance from the International Committee for Follow-Up of the Marcoussis Peace Accords—chaired by Kofi Annan's special representative for Cote d'Ivoire Albert Tevoedjre—which issued a statement Sept. 16, saying the formation of the reconciliation government was now complete. But the ex-rebels say they will not disarm because they have no confidence in these two ministers.

French Defense Minister Michele Aliot-Marie, in Cote d'Ivoire Oct. 14-15, announced that French troops will soon move into rebel-held territory; that is, some will be deployed northward from the ceasefire line to enlarge the "zone of confidence." Some hundreds could be stationed in Korhogo, the northern capital. This is seen as a step toward the demobilization and disarmament of the rebels. French officials stress that all parties, including the ex-rebels, at all levels, have agreed with this step and are ready to cooperate, according to AFP Sept. 16.

But the ex-rebel MPCI is, at least publicly, opposing the French move. MPCI Secretary General Guillaume Soro, now government Communications Minister, reportedly exploded over the plan. According to Le Patriote, the newspaper of Ouattara's RDR party, Soro told General Joana, chief of the French military mission, that "If France decides to declare war, you French will suffer the consequences," and that French soldiers could suffer what the GIs suffered in Vietnam.

Not all French moves have favored Gbagbo. French Ambassador Gildas le Lidec was reportedly responsible for insisting to him that ministers be allowed to choose their subordinates, as the ex-rebels demanded.

U.S. Pressures Kenya to Adopt Executive Prime Ministership

The United States is pressuring Kenya to adopt an executive prime ministership: the manipulable, British form of government, as opposed to their American form, in which the President holds executive power and cannot be deposed by a parliamentary vote of no confidence. The U.S. has been pushing this step elsewhere in the world.

President Mwai Kibaki, while still the candidate of the U.S.-steered Rainbow Coalition (NARC), promised his coalition partners that if elected, he would institute such an executive prime ministership. Now that Kibaki is President, he has changed his mind, causing an uproar in elements of his coalition and in the Constitutional Review Conference (CRC) now underway.

The issue became explosive when the chairman of the CRC's Committee on Devolution of Powers, Crispin Odhiambo Mbai, was assassinated Sept. 14. Mbai was closely associated with political heavyweight Raila Odinga, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, which has been part of NARC. It is widely assumed—as yet without evidence—that the government was behind the assassination.

Some CRC delegates now say that they have received death threats. Police have clashed with demonstrators.

Mirugi Kariuki, MP, evidently a part of Kibaki's faction, made "remarks on TV that ministers demanding an executive prime minister should tread carefully and understand why the likes of Mr. J.M. Kariuki, Mr. Tom Mboya and Dr. Robert Ouko had to die," implying that they were assassinated because of overweening political ambition, according to the Daily Nation Sept. 16.

CRC members have "vowed that nothing would stop them from completing the Constitution" and the assassination "had only bolstered their resolve," the daily reported.

President Kibaki will come to Washington in October for a three-day state visit. The Bush Administration is organizing a full ceremonial welcome, which it has so far only accorded to Mexico, Poland and the Philippines. There will be a formal dinner at the White House Oct. 6.

African Leader at Cancun WTO Meeting Reports U.S. Threats

Botswanan Trade and Industry Minister Jacob Nkate—head of the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group at Cancun—advised the U.S. not to adopt a "childish or sulking" attitude over the outcome of the WTO meeting. Nkate was speaking to a business group in Johannesburg Sept. 19. He "was responding to warnings from voices in the U.S. Senate that Washington might punish African states for failing to give in to pressure from the First World by toughening its stance in the current free trade area talks between the U.S. and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)," Business Day reported Sept. 19.

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