In this issue:

Wolfowitz Uses Asian Tour To Threaten North Korea

U.S. Congressional Team Visits North Korea

Japan, China Try for U.S-North Korea Talks

High-Level Indian Talks with Russia and China

East Malaysia To Supply Electricity to Power-Starved Indonesia

France Offers To Build Asia's Longest Bridge in Penang

France and Thailand Plan Mekong Development Project

Myanmar Faces Another Social Crisis

Ismail Khan Sent Tax Money to Afghan President Karzai

FBI's Mueller Is Hunting al-Qaeda in Pakistan

Abu Sayyaf Firefight Precedes Visit of Admiral Fargo

Malaysian Prime Minister Calls for Eurasian Land-Bridge

From Volume 2, Issue Number 23 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published June 10, 2003
Asia News Digest

Wolfowitz Uses Asian Tour To Threaten North Korea

Speaking at the Asian Security Conference in Singapore May 31, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz demanded that multilateral pressures be intensified on North Korea, including the threat of economic sanctions. North Korea "is teetering on the edge of economic collapse," Wolfowitz told the conference attendees. "That, I believe, is a major point of leverage." He then stated that North Korea's neighbors who, have been aiding it economically—an implicit reference to China—"need to send a message to North Korea that they're not going to continue doing that if North Korea continues down the road it's on." But Cho Soon-sung, a senior adviser to the South Korean ruling party, told AP that "we should not cut off economic aid. There is a humanitarian problem: the people in North Korea are starving."

During his stopover in Seoul June 1, Wolfowitz announced an $11-billion plan to beef up U.S. military preparedness in South Korea, and continued to make bellicose statements on North Korea, arguing that the "enemy ... keeps adapting, keeps looking for our weaknesses, to try to exploit them. We have to keep adapting and fixing our weaknesses and exploiting the enemy's." Those "weird people up north," he blustered, don't have the advantage. "Time is on our side."

Immediately following his visit, a war plan was leaked to the press, while an official decision was taken to reposition U.S. troops in South Korea, which coheres with the leaked war plan. The U.S. and South Korea issued a joint statement announcing the intention to remove 15,000 U.S. troops based along the DMZ border region with the North. The South Koreans have previously asserted, unofficially, that to make this move now has the appearance of getting U.S. troops out of harm's way in preparation for a U.S. assault on the North, which the South totally opposes. The move to a site south of Seoul will not be immediate; it will take about two years to complete. Wolfowitz, however, said on June 2 in Seoul that "it is not something that should wait until the nuclear problem is solved." There will also be a move of 6,000 of the 7,000 U.S. troops who are based in Seoul, to a location further south.

At the same time, Reuters reported a leak from unnamed "U.S. officials," that a new plan has been developed to "bypass the demilitarized zone ... by the consolidation of the U.S. and South Korean forces in two areas away from the DMZ. If war broke out, the forces would skirt the DMZ and head for Pyongyang." Reuters said the plan is "based on the success of the U.S.-led forces in Iraq in quickly reaching Baghdad."

U.S. Congressional Team Visits North Korea

Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa), the vice-chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, led a bipartisan team on a three-day visit at the end of May to North Korea, announcing afterwards that Pyongyang is open to a solution to the crisis over their nuclear-weapons program. He said North Korean officials "admitted to currently having nuclear capability and weapons, ... to having just about completed the reprocessing of 8,000 rods, ... and to an effort to expand their nuclear reproduction program [as] a response to what they saw happen in Iraq, with the U.S. removing Saddam Hussein from power."

Weldon nonetheless said that he believed we have a "window of opportunity" to solve the problem, and that the North Korean officials responded positively to his proposals, which, according to the Korea Herald, included "setting up a natural gas supply to the North from Russia," as well as medical aid and economic investments. It was not an official delegation, but the State Department was aware of it before its departure, and the delegation will report back to the Administration on the talks.

Japan, China Try for U.S-North Korea Talks

Meeting in St. Petersburg May 31, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Chinese President Hu Jintao committed themselves to bringing the United States and North Korea to the negotiating table, apparently steering clear of the issue of intensifying pressures against North Korea. Following the meeting, Koizumi told reporters that "the discussions were not about stricter measures or anything specific." The Chinese government has been vocal in its opposition to using economic sanctions against North Korea. Hu reportedly briefed Koizumi on talks that took place in Beijing last month between the U.S. and Pyongyang, and State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan said that "the most important point is how to continue the Beijing talks as soon as possible. The Japanese side expressed their willingness to take part." Both leaders also agreed to visit each other's countries.

High-Level Indian Talks with Russia and China

In the wake of a May 30 meeting between Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, experts of the Russian Security Council and the Indian National Security Council were to meet in the Russian capital June 3-5. The agenda ranged from issues of international and regional security, to aspects of the fight against terrorism.

And, for the first time ever, senior officials of the Indian and Chinese foreign ministries will convene soon, for a policy-planning discussion of international and regional hotspots. As Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Quiye said in Beijing on June 2, both countries share similar or even identical standpoints on many international issues, as developing nations and as neighbors. The new high-level planning sessions will boost good relations between China and India, also from the perspective of common development, the spokeswoman said.

The Indian Prime Minister is expected to make his first official state visit to Beijing at the end of June.

East Malaysia To Supply Electricity to Power-Starved Indonesia

Indonesia's state-owned electric company PLN will team up with two electric companies in Malaysia's Sarawak and Sabah states, PLN general director Edi Widiono said on May 2. The Sarawak Electricity Supply Corp. (Sesco) and Sabah Electricity Board (SESB) will supply power stations in Indonesia's West Kalimantan province and Sumatra island, respectively, Edi said, during a meeting of officials from Southeast Asian electricity companies.

Sesco will supply power stations in West Kalimantan beginning fiscal year 2006-07, and SESB will supply power stations in Sumatra starting 2008, he said. PLN wants to buy at least 50 megawatts of power from Sesco during the initial stage, Edi said.

Indonesia has had little success in getting Western firms to build power plants, even those that had been started before the Asian crisis in 1997, without pledging impossible conditions. Parts of East Java province suffered rolling blackouts last week.

France Offers To Build Asia's Longest Bridge in Penang

The Malaysian government is studying a French company's proposal to finance and build Penang Island's second bridge to the mainland. Works Minister Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu said the new proposal would cost more than $630 million.

"We have received a new proposal from a French company that has cooperation with a local company to build the bridge, after the Japanese government failed to provide the $1.4-billion soft loan," he told reporters June 2. He said that the government could repay the loan through revenue generated from toll collections. The four-lane second bridge, spanning about 20 km, will be the longest in Asia, and is expected to ease traffic flow on Penang Bridge, which handles about 100,000 vehicles daily.

France and Thailand Plan Mekong Development Project

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's visit to France in May launched an ambitious process of cooperation to build up the economies of Thailand's poorer neighbors, according to the June 3 The Nation:

"The joint plans, expected to be wrapped up by the end of the year, included a French reaction to the Thai Prime Minister's concern about the gap in economic relations between Thailand and its neighboring countries in the Mekong region," The Nation said. "Here, Laos, Cambodia, and Burma are poorer, and export workers to Thailand. France, with historical ties in Indochina, is suggesting that there should be joint Franco-Thai investment in the three Mekong countries as a step-up development initiative. It has since sent representatives from a French development agency to follow up on the Paris initiative. This is in recognition of Thailand as a hub and engine for regional development in areas such as agriculture and agro-industry, transport and infrastructure, automobiles, energy, telecoms, environment, tourism and human resources development. A French energy agency is already partnering the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand in the development of the Nam Theun II dam in Laos."

Myanmar Faces Another Social Crisis

Violence between Myanmar (Burma) opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi supporters and government supporters led to Suu Kyi's arrest May 30. The violence in the north, during a tour of the region by Suu Kyi that day, left at least four dead and many wounded, including possibly Suu Kyi, with a reported head wound. She and 18 of her party leaders are under arrest in Yangon, and National League for Democracy (NLD) offices have been closed across the country. University openings, scheduled for this week, were postponed. Protests are pouring in from around the world. Malaysia's Razali Ismail, the UN special representative to Myanmar, intends to proceed with his scheduled visit to Myanmar on June 6, and may be able to diffuse the crisis.

Government officials report that they are trying to prevent the outbreak of mass violence like that of 1988, and are unlikely to hold the NLD leaders for long.

Ismail Khan Sent Tax Money to Afghan President Karzai

Afghanistan's biggest warlord and Governor of Herat province, Ismail Khan, has sent $20 million, collected from customs duties and other taxes, to President Hamid Karzai. The significance of this event is the expression of Iranian goodwill toward the U.S.-backed Karzai, since Herat is the place where Afghan Shias are centered. The entire province, including Ismail Khan himself, is under Tehran's influence. Most of Afghan imports come from Iran (since the Pakistan-Afghanistan borders is in shambles following the U.S. takeover of Kabul) and the duties are collected by Ismail Khan. Early this year, President Karzai had visited Herat and pleaded to Ismail Khan for revenues. The fact that Khan complied is seen as indication that Tehran is keen to help Karzai and to keep the Taliban out of the way. This policy of Tehran is supportive of Washington's overall policy towards Afghanistan.

FBI's Mueller Is Hunting al-Qaeda in Pakistan

FBI Director Robert Mueller sought the active cooperation of Pakistan in setting up a permanent FBI intelligence system in Afghanistan during his one-day trip on June 3 to Pakistan, The News reports. The purpose of this intelligence unit will be to monitor and rout al-Qaeda members in Afghanistan. The News claims that Mueller has also urged Pakistan's intelligence agencies to cooperate with the United States in monitoring Taliban and al-Qaeda activities along the Pakistan-Afghanistan borders.

Mueller's visit is a clear sign of growing American uneasiness about the political developments in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), where the Mullah-Raj under the Majlis e Muttahida Amal (MMA) has taken control. MMA has announced a Taliban-style dress code for all. and has implemented the controversial Shariah (Islamic law) as the law of the state. MMA has also announced that any "foreigner" (read: Arab al-Qaeda) who has a legitimate visa to enter Pakistan will be provided full protection by the state government. NWFP is already thick with the Taliban and al-Qaeda members.

As a sop to permitting the creation of a permanent U.S. intelligence unit, Washington has offered Islamabad a significant steady source of income if Pakistan sends troops to Iraq. Pakistan is presently weighing the offer.

Abu Sayyaf Firefight Precedes Visit of Admiral Fargo

Less than two hours before Adm. Thomas B. Fargo, Commander of U.S. forces in the Asia Pacific region, arrived in Zamboanga in the southern Philippines province of Mindanao, one Filipino Marine and 11 other soldiers were wounded in a gun battle with terrorist Abu Sayyaf gang in nearby Mt. Bagsak. When he arrived, Fargo was taken to military headquarters to meet with Armed Forces Chief Gen. Narciso Abaya, and Southern Command chief Maj. Gen. Roy Kyamco. Fargo was in Zamboango for three days to prepare for this year's Balikatan 03, the joint U.S./Philippine live combat military "exercises" in Abu Sayyaf territory.

Separately, however, Philippines Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes, after meeting with Adm. Fargo, went out of his way to impress upon reporters, "The Philippine situation doesn't change: no permanent basing of U.S. forces here. The U.S. is aware of our Constitutional constraints; no permanent basing of troops." He added that Fargo had discussed "creative, innovative ways of cooperation, new ideas in light of the new terrorist threat."

National Security Adviser Roilo Golez added that redeployment of U.S. troops may happen in other parts of Asia, but not in the Philippines.

Malaysian Prime Minister Calls for Eurasian Land-Bridge

Speaking at the Ninth Nikkei Conference on the Future of Asia in Tokyo on June 6, Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad addressed the need for Asia to participate in the Great Eurasian Land-Bridge, connecting Asia with Europe by rail. The Eurasian Land-Bridge program is widely associated with Lyndon and Helga LaRouche, who began promoting the policy a decade ago.

"Physical communication in terms of roads, railways, ports, and airports never fail to stimulate the growth of a country," he said. "For land-locked countries, the most important infrastructure is the railways. Just as ships are designed to carry the enormous amount of fuel and freight, the railway system should be similarly designed. We know that in Europe huge trucks move huge amounts of goods and food to every corner from every corner. For Asia, roads are too expensive. The rail system is far better. Our vision in Southeast Asia is to be able to send heavy goods by rail from Singapore to Europe via Kunming in China, Central Asia, and on to the existing railway system which links it to Europe. It will be an alternative to sea transport and it can be faster. Asians can do all these things. It will not be easy of course, but it will not be impossible. Much time will be needed, but there are sufficient funds in Asia for these to be implemented."

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