Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Russian President Denounces Iraq War as Violation of International Law
The invasion of Iraq was "a serious political mistake," Russian President Vladimir Putin said March 20, in a statement even more strongly worded than Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov's remarks in recent days. Putin's address to top political and security officials, excerpted below, was issued as an official statement:
"The entire region is threatened by a large-scale humanitarian and environmental disaster.
"Let me stress from the outset, that these military actions are being carried out contrary to world public opinion, and contrary to the principles and norms of international law and the UN Charter. Nothing can justify this military actionneither the accusation that Iraq supports international terrorism (we have never had and do not have information of this kind), nor the desire to change the political regime in that country, which is in direct contradiction to international law....
"And, finally, there was no need to launch military action in order to answer the main question posed by the international community: namely, are there, or are there not weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? ... Moreover, at the time of launching this operation Iraq posed no danger either to neighboring countries, or to other countries and regions of the world, sinceparticularly after the decade-long blockadeit was a weak country, both militarily and economically. It was still less of a danger, with the international inspectors working there.... [I]n the recent period their work had produced serious positive results. I would like to note that the joint work in the framework of the UN Security Council ... created the basis for practical actions to disarm Iraq by peaceful means....
"The military action against Iraq is a big political mistake. I have already referred to the humanitarian aspect. But the threat of the disintegration of the existing system of international security is no less cause for concern. If we allow international law to be replaced by 'the law of the fist,' according to which the strong is always right, and has the right to do anything he please, with no restriction on his choice of means to achieve his goals, then one of the basic principles of international law will be called into questionthat is the principle of the inviolable sovereignty of nation-states. And then no one, not one country in the world will feel secure. And the vast area of instability that has emerged will expand, causing negative consequences in other regions of the world.
"That is why Russia insists on an early termination of military actions.... I want to emphasize that Russia is committed to a policy of bringing this situation back onto a peaceful course and achieving a genuine solution of the issue of Iraq, on the basis of UN Security Council resolutions."
U.S. Is Making 'Tragic Error,' Says Foreign Ministry Official
On March 17, in advance of the U.S.-British withdrawal of their war resolution, in favor of proceeding to invade Iraq without UN approval, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgi Mamedov warned of tragic consequences. In an interview with Itar-Tass, he stated: "If Washington decides to ignore the [UN] Security Council, to violate the UN Charter and invade Iraq, this will be a tragic error from the side of the U.S.A. ... Russia categorically rejects any ultimatums regarding Iraq.... In Russia we consider that Iraq constitutes neither a threat to the U.S.A., nor to the international community, nor to its neighbors.... Russia will not participate in a campaign of pressure or threats, directed at changing the regime in Iraq."
Asked what Russia would do, should there be a U.S. military operation, Mamedov answered: "Russia will not launch an anti-American campaign, but will try its utmost to return the situation to a proper legal basis. We will not gloat over a tragic mistake by the United States."
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov also issued a statement, couched in very similar terms, that "the possibilities for [a political] settlement have not only not been exhausted, they are, on the contrary, quite real," and that therefore, it is Russia's position that "there are no grounds, including legal grounds, for the use of force with respect to Iraq, especially while invoking previous UNSC resolutions."
Russian Military Expert Warns Against Use of Nuclear Weapons by Americans
At a Moscow press conference held March 18, Gen. Col. Leonid Ivashov, a former long-time leading official of the Russian Defense Ministry and now vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, voiced his doubts that the planned U.S. war against Iraq would be "an easy thing." Although there cannot be any doubt as to the superiority of the U.S. airpower and naval-based cruise missiles, the situation could change rapidly as soon as the Americans were going into operations on the ground, Ivashov said. The war could then turn into a "lengthy affair with many casualties."
The U.S. would begin operations with crippling strikes on crucial sites of the Iraqi administrative structure, command posts of the armed forces, and air defenses. During this phase of battle, and those following, Ivashov thinks that "up to 300 types of new weapons ... maybe also low-power nuclear warfare ... will be tested by U.S. specialists."
Ivashov asserted that small nukes have been stationed in Kuwait already, and the fact that (he said) the U.S. armed forces have increased research in the field of such mini-nukes of up to 5 kilotons each, over recent months, indicates they might plan to use these in Iraq. Especially if the battle on the ground turned nasty for the Americans, President Bush would be threatened with loss of face, which could become the final trigger for nuclear warfare in Iraq, Ivashov warned.
Ivanov Attended UN Security Council Session
Departing Moscow for the March 19 session of the UN Security Council, called for 15 by Russia, France, and Germany to define what would have been the remaining tasks for the UN weapons inspectors in Iraq, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told reporters, "It must always be hoped that there is such a chance, although after the U.S. President's speech, little hope remains for a peaceful settlement. But we live with hope and with hope we work. We would like to hope that, even if the U.S. does launch war against Iraq, this question may still be brought back into the UNSC framework in a very short period of time; in other words, returned to a legal basis for settling the situation."
Ivanov also charged that "the U.S., in making such a choice, bears responsibility for this action and all its consequences, fraught with great numbers of casualties, and destructive consequences going beyond this region."
On the evening of March 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with French President Jacques Chirac, the two of them stressing "the need to continue, despite the serious deterioration of the situation, political and diplomatic efforts in the framework of the UN."
Speaking after his return to Moscow, Ivanov also proposed a further development of UN institutions, for example, "the creation of a Global System of Protection against Present-Day Threats and Challenges," which would be based on mutual respect of the "interests of each state, and must ensure stability and development in the long-term perspective." Irrespective of the acute threat of war, he said, and being aware that the vast majority of states oppose this war, Russian diplomacy will continue to work to create and strengthen effective institutions in the framework of the UN, and a multipolar world order.
'New Quality of Cooperation' Among France, Germany, and Russia
Dmitri Rogozin, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in Russia's State Duma, sees the new coordination amongst Russia and the major continental European powers as leading to a new pole for Eurasian politicsone with implications for the economic realm, as well as military and strategic. Interviewed in the German paper Welt am Sonntag of March 16, Rogozin spoke about "a new quality of cooperation between France, Germany, and Russia." He said that this goes far beyond the immediate issue of opposition to war on Iraq, and is based on a very solid foundationwhich also appeals to other interested powers: "With a common industrial policy, space research, and security policy, for example, in case of regional conflicts, Germany, France, and Russia are turning into a new attractive center for other states."
"The resources of Russia secure the independence of every ally," Rogozin added. "Even if the Americans dominate everything in the [Persian] Gulf, there is no danger for Germany and France, as long as they cooperate with Russia. And Russia has decided for Germany and France. On this basis of mutual interests, the Eurasian Union is emerging as a new superpower, and with its giant export markets, has a bigger future than the European Union."
Dollar Fades as Russian Instrument for Savings
Vedomosti reported March 17 on Russian Central Bank data showing that demand for the U.S. dollar from Russian banks is steadily declining, while demand for the euro rises. In January, Russian banks imported a record amount of euros, equivalent to $751 million; they imported $944 million worth of dollars that month, compared to $2.5 billion in December. The Russian Central Bank reports that 30% of the currency sold at exchange offices during January was euros, and that the European currency's share has continued to rise in February and March. Many stores and service shops, which previously denominated their prices in dollars, have switched to euros or rubles, according to Vedomosti.
Russian Analyst: The Iraq War Is Supposed To Save the Dollar, But It's Too Late
Mikhail Khazin, co-author of a recent book called The Crash of the Dollar, told Novaya Gazeta in a March 17 interview that the motive for the U.S. attack on Iraq was economic. As he has argued for the past two years, Khazin again stressed that the U.S. economic crisis is not cyclical, but "structural," based on the demise of the so-called New Economy.
The same issue of Novaya Gazeta carried an article by a young St. Petersburg economist named Igor Andreyev, who described the U.S.-centered economic crisis as not a recession, but "a financial situation unprecedented in the global economy." Comparing the U.S. currency with Russia's GKO government bonds, which collapsed in 1998, Andreyev pointed to such factors as the derivatives bubble, the myth of the New Economy, U.S. indebtedness, accounting fraud, and outsourcing for cheap Third World labor, which has doomed many Americans to unemployment. Soon, he forecast, the dollar will no longer be a world reserve currency.
Russian-Saudi Economic Diplomacy Continues
The intensification of Russian-Saudi diplomatic and business contacts, begun last year, took another step in March, with an official visit by Saudi Oil Minister Ali Ibrahim al Nayimi to Moscow. He met with Russian Energy Minister Igor Yusufov, Presidential economic adviser Andrei Illarionov, and the top executives of the Rosneft oil company and Gazprom, the natural gas monopoly. It was a return visit, after Yusufov's to Riyadh in January.
According to the March 17 issue of Kommersant, the Saudi Minister promised to invite Russian companies to take part in development of a large natural gas project in Saudi Arabia. In turn, Yusufov hinted that the capital repatriated by Saudi business from the United States, could be invested in Russia.
In an interview with Kommersant, al Nayimi highly appreciated the role of Russia's Chamber of Trade and Industry Chamber, which is headed by former Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov, in the development of Russian-Arab economic ties. He also recounted Saudi Arabia's experience with economic diversification, designed to achieve more independence from oil sales. He emphasized the commitment of his country's leadership to modernize the economy and infrastructure, investing in new communication lines, new equipment, and other projects.
Fight in Russian Cabinet Centers on Industrial Performance
A March 15 leadership meeting at the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade was the occasion for a blistering attack on the failure of MEDT Minister German Gref and his colleagues to produce results, outside of the fossil fuels sector of the economy. "The fact is," said Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, "that all the non-fuel sectors of the economy are far from competitive. Today we need, not the slogans you wrote three years ago, but concrete proposals."
Kasyanov also lambasted Gref's ally, Finance Minister and Deputy Premier Alexei Kudrin, for "clumsiness" in failing to make tax reforms work effectively.
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