Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Active Russian Diplomacy Seeks To Prevent War
Russian President Vladimir Putin held several phone consultations with other world leaders during the week of March 10, while his Foreign Minister and other diplomats worked overtime.
On March 9, Putin's press secretary announced that the Russian President had taken a call from President Jacques Chirac of France, to consult about Iraq. Gromov said that the two expressed satisfaction that chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix's opinion"that there are no grounds for not continuing the inspections in Iraq" is supported by the majority of UN Security Council members. Putin and Chirac both stated their support "for a peaceful, political-diplomatic solution of the Iraq problem," with continued use of the framework provided by UN Security Council Resolution 1441.
The next day, Putin spoke by phone with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany. They concurred that the latest UN inspectors' reports demonstrate the real possibility for a political solution of the Iraq crisis. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister G.E. Mamedov met the German Foreign Ministry's political director for G-8 affairs, M. Schaeffer, for in-depth discussion of global issues. They emphasized "the need for active efforts by the world community to prevent the unilateral use of force, in circumvention of the United Nations Organization." It was agreed that the intense Russo-German dialogue regarding strategic security will be continued in the near future, due to the crises in Iraq and Korea.
Another Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Yuri Fedotov, met French Ambassador Blanchemaison almost every day of that week, "to develop the continuing close Russo-French consultations on the problem of an Iraq settlement."
On March 12, Putin spoke with President George Bush by phone, urging him to pursue diplomatic solutions.
Igor Ivanov Promises Russian Veto of U.S.-U.K. Resolution
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov toured Iran, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan the week of March 10. Before his departure, Ivanov told TV journalists, in the most explicit terms yet, that Russia was prepared to veto the U.S.-British resolution before the UN Security Council.
"We believe there is no need for any new resolution," said Ivanov. "What is necessary, rather, is to provide comprehensive support for the IAEA and UNMOVIC inspectors, who have already demonstrated and publicly stated to the UNSC session, that they are capable of carrying out their task regarding the disarmament of Iraq, as provided in the relevant SC resolutions.
"As for the draft resolution, presented by Great Britain, the United States, and Spain, it is our view that the ultimata contained in this resolution are, first of all, impossible to fulfill and, secondly, contradict the line, currently being implemented on the basis of the preceding resolution, 1441. Therefore Russia has already stated, and states again, that it cannot support such a resolution. We believe that it would be inappropriate to submit such a resolution to the UNSC. At the same time, if it is presented, Russia will vote against it.
"I repeat: There now exist all necessary conditions for settling the situation around Iraq politically. And the international community should make use of this fact. We call upon all countries, particularly the UNSC members, to take a responsible approach ... and to decide in favor of a political settlement around Iraq."
At a press conference in Tehran two days later, Ivanov reiterated, "We will not give in to American pressure and will veto the new UN Security Council resolution.... [President] Putin is resolved to use the right [of veto] in the Security Council and Russia is against any resolution which opens the way for the use of force. Russia wants UN inspectors to continue work in Iraq, while the U.S. and Britain intend to unleash a war and change the regime in Baghdad," IRNA quoted him as saying.
Ivanov: Globalization Is the Root of Security Threats
The role of economic globalization as a destabilizing influence in the world was the topic of Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov's March 10 speech at the Moscow State Foreign Languages University, which trains Russian diplomats. Ivanov said that the difficulties in creating a new system of international security after the Cold War stemmed from "the uneven process of globalization." Among the biggest world security threats, he said, are financial and economic crises, and epidemics.
Globalization, whereby a small group of countries attempts to run the world, is hurting most of humanity, said Ivanov. But the Russian Foreign Minister did not pose this as some "objective," inevitable process; rather, as the result of bad policies and the lack of intervention by leading nations to regulate economic globalization. He charged that "the manipulation of globalization" through "investment and credit diplomacy," withholding of loans, etc., has become a sort of "political engineering." He also linked this "engineering" to a "unipolar scheme."
Ivanov said that the architects of a would-be "unipolar world" have found, in the course of the Iraq crisis, that they cannot count on smaller countries to go along with them as under the old "bloc discipline," which was based on fear of becoming a target of nuclear attack. The Non-Aligned Movement summit in Kuala Lumpur, most recently, showed that more countries view themselves as having a role in solving world problems. Therefore, "the advocates of unipolarity have encountered a broad front of nations, unprepared to shape their national priorities according to narrow molds, imposed from outside."
The UN, Ivanov concluded, must be the kernel of a global system through which nations act in solidarity, to confront common threats. The Iraq crisis has shown the urgency of such an approach. Ivanov said that humanity is capable of "creating ways to maintain strategic stability, prevent major regional conflicts, keep ordinary financial and economic conjunctural fluctuations from becoming catastrophic crises, foresee possible 'shocks,' and rapidly mobilize resources to deal with them." If such a strategy rests on "moral and ethical principles," he said, it will work.
In an interview with the Iranian newspaper Iran, Ivanov took up these themes again, saying: "Iraq's peaceful disarmament in full compliance with UN Security Council resolutions, which is our common goal, will break legal ground paving the way for political settlement of other conflicts, first of all in the Middle East."
On March 13, the Russian Foreign Minister issued a brief official statement, noting that the March 11-12 debate about Iraq, held as an open UN Security Council session with over 50 nations taking part, "showed clearly that the overwhelming majority of nations are decidedly in favor of continuing the inspections process," which is producing ever better results. "Under these conditions," the statement said, "plans for unilateral force actions against Iraq, especially without UNSC sanction, are not accepted by the international community and cause alarm, due to the inevitable negative consequences they would have ... on the entire system of international security, based on the UN Charter."
Russian Official: Americans Don't Know What They're Doing
"The Americans don't know what they are getting into," declared Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Russian Federation Council (Senate) Foreign Affairs Committee, in a March 8 interview with the popular radio station Ekho Moskvy. Margelov spoke of a hectic and "tense" visit to Washington a week earlier, where he met with members of the U.S. National Security Council and upper levels of the Administration, with members of Congress and think-tanks, in the context of last-minute U.S.-Russian efforts to reach some kind of consensus on the Iraq crisis.
Characterizing a U.S. invasion of Iraq as probable, Margelov declared: "I am very skeptical about the ability of the Americans to recognize and understand, what they are really getting into." Very few of his interlocutors had any significant knowledge of the history and circumstances of Iraq and the surrounding region, he remarked. For example, "I warned them, that any day, Saddam might suddenly grant independence to the Kurds.... At that moment, Iran explodes, Syria explodes, Jordan explodes, Turkey explodes.... What are you going to do then?" Margelov said his query brought only blank stares. But Saddam, a despot of a particular Mideastern type, is capable of making that sort of unexpected actions, he warned.
"Without our help, or that of those British people who understand the area, the Americans are going to get into big trouble." said Margelov. One should never forget, that Iraq is an "extremely complex, structured society," including "not only the Kurdish minority, but also Sunni and Shia [Islamic denominations], as well as ancient Christian peoples, the Assyrians, the Chaldeans, Jews.... You can't look at this in a black-and-white, Texan way," he warned. One must also not forget the long history of foreign involvement in Iraq, Margelov said, citing not only the case of the British and Russians, but also the famous Baghdad Railroad plan of imperial Germany, which represented a "major economic and political intervention."
Unfortunately, he said, decision-makers in Washington seem "incapable of thinking about more than one problem at a time." As a result, he predicted, that an Iraq operation will result in a terrible mess, which the U.S. will need Russian and other outside help to solve.
U.S. Ambassador Threatens Russia
In an interview with Izvestia, U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow warned that there could be serious economic and political consequences if Russia vetoes a UN resolution authorizing war against Iraq. Vershbow was asked about Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent warnings about consequences for France, and whether the same would be the case for Russia.
"The latest statement of Foreign Minister Ivanov testifies to the ever-increasing probability that Russia will set a veto," answered Vershbow. "Unfortunately, this will have some consequences for our relations. We will, perhaps, agree with Russian friends that we have too many joint interests not to cope with such damage. But we should admit: there will be damage...."
Question: "So consequences will still follow for Russia if it vetoes the U.S.-British resolution?"
Vershbow: "I am afraid they will, at least in the short-term outlook. Sure enough, it's a pity, since we have a very extensive agenda [together]. Thus, we could considerably expand cooperation in the energy sphere, increase American investment in the Russian energy sector, work out new forms of interaction in the area of security, and cooperate in the area of missile defense. We could expand cooperation in the fight with terrorism. We believe that Russian partners might be of great importance in assisting us in outer space after the Columbia disaster. Relations between Russia and NATO are just beginning to yield results. It will be a great pity if progress in those spheres is postponed or reversed at all because of serious differences on Iraq...."
Commenting after Vershbow's speech, Sergei Karaganov of the Russian Foreign and Defense Policy Council told radio Ekho Moskvy, "The American Administration, or some of its members, are now on the verge of panic. They realize that they have lost the information and propaganda war, and that support for their policies on Iraq has waned since two or three months ago," Karaganov said. "But I still hope that the Americans will define their interests soberly, cast emotions aside and understand that in this particular situation postponing the operation is not a defeat but a major victory, which the whole world will greet with applause."
As to the statements by Vershbow, warning that certain programs will be scrapped, "there are few such programs," Karaganov said. "The scrapping of some of themcooperation in space and a number of economic programsmay be painful for Russia. However, most of these programs, for instance the much-talked-about collaboration in power engineering, have been so far [only] of a political and virtual nature.... so we can hardly speak here about any serious economic damage."
Russia-Iran Nuclear Cooperation Proceeds
As Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov visited Tehran, Iranian officials March 11 announced that the Bushehr reactor in Iran will receive its first shipment of enriched uranium from Russia this May. Ninety tons of fuel will be supplied for the reactor, which is to come on line next year. Its purity is 3%, which is fuel-gradeas opposed to 90%, weapons-grade uranium. The spent fuel will be shipped back to Russia.
Feasibility studies for completing a second reactor at Bushehr are under way.
China-Russia-Japan-Korea Multiple Oil Pipeline Projects Take Shape
China and Russia are about to finalize plans for a long-awaited, 2,500-mile oil pipeline from Russia's east Siberian reserves to China, both Koreas, and Japan, China Daily reported March 3, in what a Chinese official called "the most important deal between the two neighbors for at least two decades." China has agreed to Russia's new plan, which was confirmed at a Russian government meeting March 13, to connect an extra pipeline to Japan to the main Sino-Russia line, as long as it guarantees adequate supplies for China, a Chinese official told China Daily.
Emerging in early February, this latest proposal provides for building the 1,200-mile line to China first, and later adding links from the Siberian city of Chita to Russia's port of Nakhodka to supply Japan, Korea. and even the United States. The investment of more than U.S.$5 billion was originally to deliver 20 million tons of oil annually from Angarsk to Daqing from 2005. The amount will rise to 30 million tons by 2010. China hopes the Angarsk-Daqing pipeline will reduce its heavy reliance on the Middle East. This compromise planas opposed to a scenario, under which the Angarsk-Daqing project would have been scrapped, in favor of Angarsk-Nakhodka aloneseems to be the most favored option, with Russia's Ministry of Energy describing it as in the "national interest."
Putin Consolidates Security Organizations
By Presidential decrees issued March 11, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has incorporated several other agencies. One of the successor agencies to the Soviet KGB, the FSB will now more nearly approximate that former institution's centralized security function. Foreign intelligence remains under a separate roof.
Disbanded, with their functions now coming under the FSB, are the Federal Agency for Governmental Communication and Information (FAPSI) and the Federal Border Guard Service (FSP). Former FAPSI Director Vladimir Matyushin will now chair a new State Defense Procurement Committee at the Defense Ministry. Former FSP head Gen. Col. Konstantin Totsky has been named Russia's envoy to NATO (prompting more than one analyst to ask, if his assignment has to do with NATO's approach to Russian borders).
Putin also abolished the Federal Tax Police Service (FSNP), assigning its job to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. He brought his representative to the Northwest Federal District, Viktor Cherkesov, back to Moscow to head up a new State Committee on Drug Trafficking. Deputy Prime Minister Valentina Matviyenko replaces Cherkesov in the Northwest District.
Motivating this consolidation, Putin told a meeting of security officials that the major task of law enforcement must be to protect citizens from crimes against life and property, as well as to prevent terrorism and drug-related crimes. The full text of the conclusions and recommendations of the meeting are to be published only several weeks from now. Several Russian media forecast that Putin's shake-up of law enforcement is not yet over.
KGB veterans, interviewed on TV Channel 5 March 13, welcomed the moves. "The disintegration of the special services in Yeltsin's era was part of disintegration of the country," said retired Colonel Vladimir Yegerev. "For over a decade, cooperation among the former directorates was practically impossible. This inability for the intelligence community to function was certainly favorable for the oligarchs and criminal traders."
Finance Minister Pleads With Population Not To Dump Dollars
On March 9, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin went on national TV to urge the population not to rush to cash in their U.S. dollars. The precipitous fall of the dollar against the euro had led to panic selling of dollars at various locations in Russia. Estimates of cash dollars held in Russia range up to $40 billion. Kudrin said, "We can of course talk about some speculative fluctuation, but I would calm everyone: The dollar will not fall dramatically, and to run away from investment in dollars is not necessary."
Kudrin voiced confidence in the U.S. economy, a view disputed by more and more Russian analysts. The Russian Central Bank itself, earlier this year, announced a diversification of its gold and currency reserves, to include relatively fewer dollars and more gold and euros.
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