Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Russia Says British-U.S. UN Resolution for War Will Be Blocked
On March 8, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told Russian state television that Russia, China, Germany, and China "won't allow" passage of a second UN Security Council resolution, and that a U.S. attack on Iraq will breach the UN charter.
A Foreign Ministry transcript, released March 8, refers to the draft British-U.S.-Spanish resolution, saying: "We believe that such ultimatums are not justified, all the more so since the heads of the inspections groups themselves requested several months to complete their work. Therefore, Russia, like many countries, believes that such a resolution is inadvisableit doesn't further the political settlement of the situation around Iraq.... Russia will do everything" to block the resolution. Even with nine votes, "It won't pass, because Russia, France, Germany, and China consider the draft extremely negatively and won't allow its adoption."
Further: "If the U.S. unilaterally begins military action in relation to Iraq, it would violate the UN Charter, and, of course, when the UN Charter is violated, the Security Council must gather, discuss the situation and make the corresponding decisions." He said he hoped it did not come to that, but that Washington seemed headed for "exactly that scenario."
Putin Warns of Wave of Destabilization
Russian President Vladimir Putin again spoke out against war in Iraq on March 3, saying that the Islamic world "may be swept by instability" if the U.S. invades Iraq. Speaking to Trud, a Bulgarian newspaper, he said the crisis must be solved "by exclusively peaceful means," and that "I would like to hope that the basic principles of international law will be observed by all members of the international community."
The U.S. effort to turn Russia, leaving France and China as a "minority" among the Permanent Five at the UN Security Council opposed to the war, was in high gear in early March. State Department Chickenhawk John Bolton visited Moscow, Putin's chief of staff Alexander Voloshinnotorious as a holdover from the Yeltsin "Family"was in D.C. for meetings with most of the Administration officials, Bush has been on the phone with Putin, and Condi Rice was due in Moscow. Among the carrots held out to Russia were the declaration of three Chechen groups to be terrorist organizations subject to American sanctions; the Administration is offering to lift the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, a 1970s restraint on trade left over from Soviet days; and is offering the recovery of Russia's $8 billion debt with Iraq and getting in on the oil deals.
See this week's INDEPTH for Jonathan Tennenbaum's report on further Russian developments with France, Germany, and China opposing war against Iraq.
Russian Analysts Dispute Iraq Options
While President Putin and Foreign Minister Ivanov are doing everything they can to try to prevent war, a bitter struggle is raging within the Russian government and policy establishment, over Iraq and relations with the U.S., said a leading scholar of the famous Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) Institute for World Economics and Politics (IMEMO), in a discussion March 4. "That battle has not yet been decided," he said. Commenting on the Feb. 28 article by RAS Europe Institute scholar and veteran Russian diplomat Igor Maksimychev in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, concerning the strategic significance of an emerging German-French-Russian "triangle," the expert remarked: "Maksimychev is not just speaking for himself. He is speaking for a prevalent view in the Academy of Sciences and, more importantly, for an influential group within the Russian government itself. But this is not the only group. There is also a powerful 'U.S. lobby' in the government, connected especially with oil interests, who are pushing the childish idea that Russia stands to gain a lot from energy deals with the USA." One such figure is the infamous Mikhail Khodorkovsky, CEO of Yukos oil company.
As for Putin, he is "neither pro-Bush, nor pro-European; he is pro-Russian," the expert said. "The Iraq crisis has put Russia and Putin in a very difficult position. Putin is trying to preserve all the positive achievements of Russia, both in relations with the U.S., and in relations with Europe. That is why he is constantly maneuvering." If an Iraq war were launched, and Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing nations were destabilized, "the big losers would be, not the USA, but the European Union and Japan." In any case, Russia's relations with Europe are absolutely vital and will not be sacrificed. One should not jump to the conclusion, pushed by press propaganda, that Voloshin's USA trip represented an attempt to cut a dirty deal with the Bush Administration.
"Most probably, Voloshin, who has rarely been involved in international diplomacy, was carrying out a very specific mission for Putin."
Russians Warn of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Use
The danger that the United States might use nuclear weapons in Iraq was a sub-theme at a March 4 Moscow press conference held by two members of Russia's Federal Defense and Security Council. Vasily Klyuchenok, a general lieutenant of aviation, opened his remarks by stating his concern that whereas Iraq had made military history through its use of chemical weapons, the U.S. had demonstrated, during the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, that nuclear weapons could also be used. He described these as "vicious" priorities, and said that it cannot be guaranteed that these things wouldn't happen again. "Or, if the conflict goes much further, then ... will it not become the prologue for a third world war involving the use of quite serious means of destruction, and with much more serious consequences for all the participants?"
Later, asked whether he was forecasting a Third World War, he said he hoped not, but that he had expressed his concerns. Asked whether the U.S. may use low-yield nuclear bombs, he said that he could not rule this out. He also said he had raised this danger to the Americans.
On a slightly different note, when asked if he thought a certain stage of military deployment would make it impossible to stop, he said no. "All troops operate by command.... This could be described as exercises and one can get out of this situation with dignity in general."
It is perhaps also of note that the moderator of the press conference started off saying that it's likely Washington will hit Iraq March 12, with or without a UN resolution.
Mafiya Loots Russian Resources
The same Russian Mafiya linked to the DNC, Lieberman-McCain, and the war party through such delightful figures as Marc Rich, is ripping off Russia's natural resources at an astounding rate, while failing to invest a kopek in the scientific work of geological exploration, mapping, and new research needed to assure Russians a future. For example, known supplies of natural gas, the largest of Russia's mineral exports, will run out by 2025, at present rates of use and growth of consumption. (This is by conservative estimates; some geologists suspect the supply may only last another 10 years.) Diamonds, one of the huge cash cows for the Mafiya-owned mineral companies, will be exhausted by 2018. And 100% of all Russia's known mineral resources will be depleted by the year 2100, at present rates of growth of consumption.
This was the picture presented in private discussions and in a public lecture delivered by Dmitri Rundkvist, the Director of the Vernadsky State Geological Museum, and Assistant Director Sergei Cherkasov, at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington March 4. But the outlook of these experts is far from the zero-growth mentality so prevalent in parts of the West. They believe passionately that such problems are part of the normal course of human economic development, and can be solved by application of science to new exploration, new extraction techniques, and new methods of energy production. (In discussion among a small group who surrounded him following the lecture, Dr. Rundkvist pointedly praised Lyndon LaRouche's work to the EIW's reporter.) However, control over mineral exploitation by the new money (Mafiya) means that virtually nothing is going into the needed scientific work. The small scientific staff of the prestigious Vernadsky Museum are forced to spend their days on fundraising activities, just to keep the doors open, and the same goes for all the Russian geological institutesand for that matter, all branches of Russian science. Last year, a mapping and exploration expedition up the Yenisey River was cancelled for lack of funds.
The conditions for resource development are especially harsh in Russia, as Dr. Rundkvist pointed out in his public presentation. The entire national territory falls above the 48th parallel, and most of the resources are concentrated above the Arctic Circle. Most mineral exploitation, including oil and gas, occurs under rigorous winter conditions. Two photographs of the town of Norilslk, to the east of the Yennisey in northern Siberia, told the story. The first, from 40 years ago, showed a small city where reindeer sleds made up the principal mode of transport. Today it is a "boom town," one of the wealthiest in Russia. But one without a future, under present policies. Dr. Rundquvist closed his presentation at the Smithsonian with a citation from V.I. Vernadsky, one of the founding fathers of Russian geology among his other accomplishments:
"On a global scale, the only countries which survive are those which have precise knowledge of their resources, and can direct the spiritual power of the people to their use."
Leading Duma Member Calls for More Trade with China
Dmitri Rogozin, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of Russia's State Duma, called March 4 for Russia to further increase economic and trade cooperation with China. Rogozin said the Russian government should offer more support to Russian companies which can join in the development of western China. Also, Moscow should pay special attention to China when making plans for its Far East; and draw on China's experiences developing special economic zones, when developing Kaliningrad on the Baltic and Sakhalin on the Pacific.
He also said Russian-Chinese cooperation is important for resolving the crisis over Korea.
Also, on March 2, Russian and Chinese railroad officials met in Harbin, in northeast China's Heilongjiang province, to discuss prospects for the construction of a railroad between Ussuriisk, in Russia's far east Primorye, and Dongning in Heilongjiang. The two sides agreed to draft a feasibility study for the railroad, which would enable China to bring up to 20 million tons of export coal to Primorye ports a year.
Russian-Malaysian Trade Jumps
Trade between Russia and Malaysia amounted to $574.6 million last year, a statement from the Russian embassy said March 5. Quoting Russian Customs statistics, the statement said that Russia exported goods worth $346.2 million to Malaysia while imports were $228.4 million. "Ten years ago Malaysia was known in Russia as a supplier of natural rubber, palm oil, and tin. Now Russia is quite familiar with Malaysian-made electric and electronic appliances, furniture, garments and a number of food items that enjoy high demand in the Russian market," the statement said.
"Russia is a growing prospective market for Malaysian goods and services, as well as a potential supplier of some high-technology products and interesting partner in science and technology cooperation. This sets a favorable environment and good opportunities to develop our bilateral trade and economic ties," said the statement, which was released in conjunction with the recent establishment of the Russia-Malaysia Business Council.
|