In this issue:

Top U.S. Military, Ambassador Warn Against Iraq War

Week of Bloodshed, Invasions Precedes Israeli Labor Party Elections

Arafat Warns of Threatened Exile by Israel

Shin Beth Warns of Jewish Terror Cell

Death Toll of New Iraq War Could Reach 3.9 Million

Israeli Inflation Hits 8%; Another Credit Downgrade Predicted

Russian Diplomacy in Persian Gulf Stresses Economics

From Volume 1, Issue Number 37 of Electronic Intelligence Weekly, Published Monday, Nov. 18, 2002
MIDEAST NEWS DIGEST

Top U.S. Military, Ambassador Warn Against Iraq War

Joe Wilson, former U.S. deputy chief of mission in Baghdad in August 1990, and one of the last U.S. diplomats to meet Saddam Hussein in person, spoke out strongly against the neo-conservatives and war party pushing war with Iraq.

Reported in the Lebanon Daily Star Nov. 11, Wilson said the following about Iraq policy-making: "My own sense is that the President has been pinned in a corner by a small group of neo-conservatives who have long held that if you get rid of Saddam Hussein, you change the equation in the Middle East, without really specifying that the odds were good that you would change it for the better."

Although he supports the idea of regime change, Wilson blasted the "neo-crazies," saying, "On Sept. 12, this whole band of neo-cons, or neo-crazies as some people like to call them, had a very coherent message which they took to the air waves. The thesis of their argument was really very simple. It was: Sept. 11 was a bad event, Saddam Hussein is a bad man, ergo, two bads equal kill Saddam Hussein."

Even more significant is the speech by former Reagan Navy Secretary James Webb at the Naval Postgraduate School, on Nov. 14. Webb, a highly decorated Marine veteran, spoke at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., declaring that there was no basis for war against Iraq, since Saddam Hussein did not pose a serious threat to the United States. "We should not occupy territory in Iraq," he told the standing-room-only crowd. "Do you really want the United States on the ground in that region for a generation? I don't think Iraq is that much of a threat." Webb also noted, with pride, that, as Reagan's Secretary of the Navy, "I was the only one in the Reagan Administration who opposed the tilt toward Iraq in the war with Iran."

The San Francisco Chronicle article covering the Webb address, also quoted Professor John Aquilla, of the Naval Postgraduate faculty, who fully endorsed Webb's remarks. "Iraq is a terrible detour from what we ought to be doing," he said. "The real threat is from the al-Qaeda network. Saddam is a minimal threat to us. He knows that if he uses any of his weapons of mass destruction against us or our allies, we're going to nuke him into glass, but if al-Qaeda uses them, what are we going to retaliate against? Whom do we target?" The postgraduate students at the school, who are midlevel officers, fully supported Webb's assessment, according to Aquilla.

Week of Bloodshed, Invasions Precedes Israeli Labor Party Elections

As the Israeli Labor Party goes into its most intense party election since the November 1995 assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin by Israeli rightwing terrorists, the Sharon government is planning to occupy more Palestinian cities and areas, and conduct a massive retaliation for one of the bloodiest weeks in the 18 months Sharon has been in power.

On Nov. 15, some 12 Israelis soldiers, military police, and security officers from a rightwing Jewish settlerment were killed in Hebron in an intense firefight that began with an attack from Palestinian gunmen. Islamic Jihad, the Islamist Palestinian organization, claimed credit. The attack took place near the Tomb of the Patriarchs, a holy place for both Jews and Muslims, and was initially reported by Ha'aretz and other Israeli press as an "attack on Jewish settlers who were returning from worship," to the radical Kyrat Arba settlement.

But reports published in the Washington Post on Nov. 18, and in Sunday wires around the world, say that no civilians were killed, and Tzvi Katzover, the leader of settlement, said that no worshippers were attacked, and "It was purely a military event."

It must be noted that Kiryat Arba was the home of American-born Israeli terrorist Baruch Goldstein, who killed more than 30 Muslim worshippers at the Tomb of Abraham mosque, in February 1995, and wounded about 200 others. A month ago, Ha'aretz reporter Amir Oren published a warning about a potential Jewish assault on the location again, following a terrorist incident.

The Nov. 15 attack by Palestinians was so serious that among those killed was the commander of the Shomron Brigade, Colonel Dror Weinberg, who had commanded the region in the Occupied Territories for 18 months, and was slated to become the next chief of the elite Israeli paratroopers unit. At least three Palestinians were also killed. Islamic Jihad took responsibility, with its representative Ramadan Shallah stating to Al-Jazeera TV that the attack was in revenge for the assassination of Iyad Sawalha, who was killed on Nov. 9 by the IDF in a targetted assassination.

This latest incident caps one of the bloodiest weeks in the 18 months since Ariel Sharon came to power, a week which began with fanatical statements on the weekend of Nov. 8-9 by Likud Party Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announcing to a Likud Party meeting, and then on Israeli radio, that if he becomes Prime Minister, winning over rival Sharon in the January 2003 elections (which were called when Sharon's "unity" coalition collapsed,) he will expel Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat.

Then, on Nov. 9, the Israeli military killed Islamic Jihad figure Iyad Sawalha in Jenin, who died when Israeli troops attacked his house. Another Palestinian militant was killed in the Tulkarm refugee camp, also in the West Bank.

On Nov. 11, five Israelis, including two pre-school children and their mother, were killed in their homes in the Kibbutz Metzer, on the Israeli side of the "Green Line" projected border between Israel and Palestine. This attack was claimed by the Al Aqsa Brigade, "in revenge" for the Nov. 9 IDF murder of Sawalha. The authenticity of that claim is disputed by the Palestinians, and the Palestinian Authority condemned the attack in a statement: "Harming Israel and Palestinian civilians and turning them into targets of terror attacks is disgraceful."

By Nov. 12, the Israeli military attacked the Tul Karm refugee camp and the city of Nablus, using tanks and armored personnel carriers, allegedly in revenge for Kibbutz Metzer, but the plan was drawn up well in advance, say Israeli insiders. In the revenge operations, the Israelis killed a 9-year-old boy and demolished the house of a Palestinian Tanzim leader. In Gaza City, IDF demolitions operations killed a 2-year-old child.

Arafat Warns of Threatened Exile by Israel

On Nov. 13, Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat warned Israel against any attempt to expel him from the West Bank, after a proposed expulsion of Arafat put forward by Benjamin Netanyahu, with the backing of new Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, was rejected for the second day in a row by the Israeli Cabinet. In the same impromptu press conference outside his Ramallah headquarters, Arafat denounced the IDF invasion of Nablus as "another war crime."

Shin Beth Warns of Jewish Terror Cell

Shin Beth chief Avi Dichter told the Israeli Cabinet of the threat of a wave of terror by radical Jews directed at Palestinians, reported Ha'aretz this week. Dichter said the cell numbers between 15 and 20 members, is operating in the West Bank, and has already conducted attacks on Palestinians. Dichter claims the Shin Beth is having a problem dealing with the cell.

Dichter's warning could be linked to an earlier case, reported by EIW in July 2002, that ammunition used in the terrorist killing of four Israelis gunned to death in their home in the Adora settlement had come from an Israel Defense Forces gun-running network. The Adora incident bears some similarities to the Kibbutz Metzger tragedy, where two Israeli children and their mother were gunned down.

According to Ma'ariv, the operations of the ring were "the tip of the iceberg," but further reports after an initial flurry disappeared from the Israeli press. Another publication, israeli insider, an online publication, said that the ring was smuggling weapons, ammunition, and "Palestinians" into Israel from the West Bank, and were able to get past checkpoints because they were dressed in IDF uniforms. In some of the terrorist attacks against Israelis—where the assailants escaped—the attackers were wearing IDF uniforms.

Four soldiers from the settlements of Telem and Adora had been arrested, identified as two sets of brothers: Moshe and Nadav Cohen from Telem, and Roie and Sela Amar from Adora. Also identified have been one Oded Mola'i, and a Rotem Parnas, from Kfar Sava. Strangely enough, reported Ha'aretz, Sela Amar had been released by a Jaffa military court on the grounds that he was not in the military service when the crimes were committed. As of July 2002, Sela Amar was "missing," and it was not explained why the military court did not turn him over to the police.

Death Toll of New Iraq War Could Reach 3.9 Million

Medact, an organization composed of health professionals mostly from the U.S. and Britain, presented its report based on an investigation of the outcome of the 1990-91 Gulf War. Medact estimates that "if the conflict is contained, there will be at least a half million deaths." According to the report—"Collateral Damage: The health and environmental costs of war on Iraq"—if the war spiralled out of control into a conflict in which very likely nuclear weapons will be used, the death toll will be 3.9 million. The majority of the casualties will be civilians. The report predicts a possible economic collapse of Iraq, which would lead to famine, epidemics, and a refugee crisis. The damage would not be limited to Iraq, but would affect "the health and well-being of millions more people across the world."

Also to be taken into account is that Iraqis' mental and physical health is far worse than during the 1990-91 Gulf war. Health services already running below capacity in Iraq will not be able to cope with long-term rehabilitation or preventive health care following the end of the conflict.

A spokesman for Medact stated that the worst consequences will take place at the end of the war. "The aftermath of a conventional war could include not only civil war, but famine and epidemics, millions of refugees and displaced persons as well as catastrophic effects on children's health, agriculture, and manufacturing," a similar exodus of refugees to neighboring countries, including Iran, as during the 1990-91 conflict. The majority never returned.

The spokesman estimates that the war would "not be over as quickly as the U.S. would like. [It could] spiral out of control."

Israeli Inflation Hits 8%; Another Credit Downgrade Predicted

Israeli inflation has hit an annual rate of 8%, which is three times higher than the government's official target of 2-3%. The Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index rose last month by 0.6%. The CPI has increased 7.7% so far this year alone. This increase is much bigger than all the predictions. Half of the rise is due to the jump in the housing index, which rose 1.6%, because of the devaluation of the currency, the shekel, whereas Israel pegs housing costs to the U.S. dollar. Food prices have also increased, especially on flour and bread.

Meanwhile, in a report submitted to the Knesset (Israel's Parliament), Sylvia Piterman, a former director of the Bank of Israel, wrote that Israel can expect another sovereign credit rating downgrade by as much as several points. She added, "Without substantial change in the diplomatic situation and in its national priorities, Israel's ability to repay debt will diminish. Consequently, Israel's sovereign credit rating will be downgraded, perhaps by several notches. Such a downgrade will bring Israel to the verge of serious financial crisis." She notes that the rating agencies are well aware that the settlements are being financed at the expense of growth to the economy.

Russian Diplomacy in Persian Gulf Stresses Economics

Following extensive talks and negotiations during a visit in early November by a Russian government/industry delegation, on Nov. 6, Russia and the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council signed an agreement on the establishment of an energy dialogue, which appears to focus on the scientific-technological side. The agreement was signed by the Energy Ministers of Russia and the GCC, Igor Yusufov and Abdulrahman al-Atiyyah. The latter also called on Russian firms in the oil and gas sector, to upgrade their presence in the Gulf region.

In addition, the government of Oman has declared it will join the North-South Transport Corridor project, for establishing a direct route for containerized commodities from eastern India to the Baltic Sea and Western Europe, via Iran, the Caspian Sea region, and Russia. The three initiators of the project are Russia, Iran, and India, which signed the deal in St. Petersburg in September 2000. The corridor will combine transport routes by rail, sea, and land. Six other countries have already joined: Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, and Belarus.

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