Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Putin: Existing UN Resolutions on Iraq Are Adequate
On Sept. 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin again stated that the UN does not need to pass another resolution about inspectors. Putin made the remarks as he received the new ambassador from Iraq, one of several countries presenting ambassadorial credentials that day.
Putin stated, "Russian-Iraqi relations have a long history. We advocate a speedy settlement of the situation around this country by political and diplomatic methods, on the basis of existing UN Security Council resolutions, in strict accordance with the principles and norms of international law. The decision to renew the activity of UN inspectors in Iraq has opened possibilities for this. Its speedy implementation will make it possible to answer the international community's concerns."
But while Putin was reiterating Moscow's standing position on Iraq, Izvestia.ru commentator, Alexander Shumilin wrote the same day that it was a "sensation," because "there have been so many reports about 'intense Russian-American diplomatic contacts' connected with the new draft UN Security Council resolution....
"Although there was no concrete evidence of some compromise being reached between Moscow and Washington," said Shmulini, "the majority of analysts [including Izvestia's own ed.] were inclined to think that 'their positions were drawing closer.' The conclusion was being drawn that Russia would likely not block the British draft of an anti-Iraq resolution. Obviously, that conclusion was premature."
Shumilin reports that Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov called Tony Blair's Iraq dossier "a propaganda splash." But then he says it is an open question, whether the words of these leading Russians are "an informational smokescreen" for a compromise with the U.S., or express Moscow's genuine desire to impede a U.S. war on Iraq.
Bush's Imperial Design Denounced as 'Mein Kampf,' and 'Preemptive Strike on the World'
See this week's INDEPTH for extensive quotes from Red Star, newspaper of the Russian Defense forces, and from the English-language Moscow Times, as two leading examples of the world reaction against the Bush Administration's preemptive war doctrine.
Primakov Proposes Agenda for Chechnya Peace Talks
A major article by former Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov, in the Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, published Sept. 10, put forward the perspective of a sharp shift from armed combat to negotiations in Chechnya. After the unofficial, but also not officially criticized, talks by Russian politicians Ruslan Khasbulatov, Ivan Rybkin and others with Chechen representatives in Liechtenstein this summer (in which Zbigniew Brzezinski's Chechnya committee had a role), the Primakov article marks an intensification of motion towards such a shift. The article has been also redistributed by RIA Novosti.
Primakov begins the article bluntly, "Chechnya is Russia's largest problem and its main frontline of counter-terror struggle. But the time has come to amend the policy with regard to Chechnya. The strategy is all right in that Chechnya should remain part of the Russian Federation. But the tactic of attaining this strategic goal should be amended. The previous policy with regard to Chechnya was only partially successful. The federal forces delivered a debilitating blow at the bandit groups, thanks to the men and officers of the Army and the Interior Ministry troops. But the resistance of the bandits has not been crushed, as proved by their continued mass raids, which are doing serious damage to the federal forces. It would be wrong to put the entire blame on the command, although planning could have been better. The trouble is that the Chechen problem cannot be resolved by only or at the current stage predominantly military methods."
Acknowledging he "may be criticized by ... certain quarters that are directly involved in the Chechen problem," he says, "I have thought long and seriously, and believe that I have the moral right to put forth my ideas."
He then proposed six principles: 1) separate "civilians from bandits"; 2) undertake negotiations, including with the field commanders, or at least some of them; 3) recognize that some of the Chechens want to negotiate, and that their Saudi and Turkish sponsors will likely be more careful in current circumstances; 4) make officials in adjacent Russian areas responsible if conditions are created favorable to Chechen guerrilla operations; 5) not allow the military to play the dominant role in the settlement, but rather a single representative of the Russian President, who should be responsible for "everything in Chechnya, including economic development, the military action against the bandits and the political work with the population"; 6) work internationally and with the public abroad, to make them understand "what a heavy burden we are straining to carry and how difficult it is to fight at the forefront of the most bloody battle against terrorism for years without being understood."
The article comes as fighting and tensions has been escalating (see below).
Chechen Provocation Fuels Russia-Georgia Tensions Again
A major provocation by Chechen warlords in Ingushetia on Sept. 27 is fanning tensions between Russia and Georgia. The battle occurred around the village of Galashki in Ingushetia, a republic in the Russian North Caucasus adjacent to Chechnya, which also shares a border with Georgia. Forces identified with Chechen warlord Ruslan Gelayev, though reportedly commanded by one Abdul Malik a.k.a. Vitali Smirnov (a Russian convert to Islam), engaged federal Internal Affairs and then regular Army troops. Somewhere between 40 and 100 guerrillas were killed, as well as 10 or more Russian soldiers. One of the dead with the Chechens was a British citizen named Gervais Roderick John Scott, a stringer for the Frontline News TV show.
The incident is particularly loaded, because the band of "Gelayevists" is alleged to have entered Ingushetia from Georgia. According to stories in the Kommersant and Nezavisimaya Gazeta dailies, the band is the one that was allegedly holed up in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge several weeks ago. On Sept. 20, they popped up in North Ossetia, another Russian republic, at a location 200 kilometers from Pankisi. The remnants of the band retreated into Chechnya after the Sept. 27 fighting.
Russian media are highlighting the statement by Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, that if it were proven that the Chechen band in Galashki came from Georgian territory, this would be "the final drop, that made Russia's cup of patience overflow." Said Ivanov, "We will use every capability we have to repulse this aggression, as allowed to us under international law and the UN resolution on combatting terror."
'Washington the Fourth Rome' Makes Georgia its Protectorate
Vitali Tretyakov, the respected former editor of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, calls the United States in its current imperial posture, "The Fourth Rome." The term is particularly cutting, given the failure of late-20th-century designs for "Moscow the Third Rome (and the Fourth Shall Never Be)." Tretyakov's remark appeared in a lengthy article he published in Rossiyskaya Gazeta of Sept. 19, analyzing what was behind President Putin's Sept. 11 "ultimatum" to Georgia about harboring Chechen fighters in Pankisi Gorge.
Tretyakov observes that there are certain "constraints" on Russian action in the Caucasus: "The President of present-day Russia will not carry out any acts of force on the territory of another state without the permission of the United States, because he cannot. This is even more true in the case of Georgia, which under the leadership of Eduard Shevardnadze is bending over backwards to give itself up to the Americans, dreaming of becoming if not a second U.S. state by the name of Georgia, then at least a protectorate of the Fourth Rome. The Fourth Rome is perfectly willing for this, but does not quite understand how and why it should maintain a Georgian elite that is all too corrupt and demands the constant satisfaction of its desires...."
Russian Commentator: We Can Oppose the United States
An RIA Novosti commentary by Dmitri Kosyrev was translated and showcased by the BBC on Sept. 24, under the headline "Pro-Kremlin agency outlines Russian stance on Iraq." BBC goes out of its way to say the source is "known for its close relations with the Russian Presidential Administration and often used by the Kremlin in order to outline its views on sensitive matters in an unofficial way."
Kosyrev took up the coming days' debates in the UN Security Council, "where Washington is pushing for a blatantly provocative resolution on Iraq." He went on to present an analysis of U.S. actions: "The point [of such a resolution] is to make the conditions of weapons inspections so tough for Baghdad that Saddam Hussein would refuse to cooperate. In this case, the Security Council would be caught in an American trap and would have to vote for war. If the Security Council rejects the American plan, then George Bush, armed with a resolution from the U.S. Congress, will fight against Saddam on his own or together with Great Britain. In both cases, Washington will demonstrate an ability to impose its will on the rest of the world. This is its true goal, rather than changes in Iraq or in the Middle East."
Kosyrev suggested that this raises the prospect of a "collapse" of the UN. "The point is, that a resolution passed by U.S. Congress can't give the American President the right to violate the UN Charter. It has the status of an international treaty and, therefore, stands above internal laws of any country. Theoretically, America may become subject to UN sanctions if it strikes Iraq without Security Council approval. Of course, nobody can actually implement such sanctions. Russian diplomats, like any others, are bound by their official status and can't say in plain words that the limit of patience towards American boorishness has been exhausted, as well as the limit of patience towards Saddam Hussein. However, Saddam is not the point. The point is the need to set boundaries for American all-powerfulness. What's more, it must be done politely and in a friendly manner."
As for the United States, "A superpower with no obligations to the rest of the world is more than just dangerous it's doomed to defeat. It may be defeated by terrorists or find itself bogged down in the Middle East, or lose the economic competition to its own allies. Meanwhile, Moscow has just started to get used to partnership with America and enjoy the benefits it gives.... For some people it's hard to realize that we oppose America not as a strategic enemy, but as a friend and ally. Few people understand that the Iraq problem does not return us to the Cold War time. The Russian position is very much similar to that of France, which also has serious economic interests in the Middle East and in Iraq but still remains an old American ally.... Insofar as the struggle for the new world order is concentrated at the UN, other countries are gladly hiding behind Russia, France, and China's backs. The approval or non-approval of the U.S.-proposed resolution on Iraq now depends on [those] three permanent members of the UN Security Council. The dubious privilege of standing on the front line is the only difference between Moscow, Paris, and Beijing, on the one hand, and the rest of the world. It, too, contemplates how to restrict American all-powerfulness a little bit, before America does so itself by embarking on a risky adventure."
Ukrainian President Kuchma Under Siege
On the evening of Sept. 23, the Ukrainian political opposition, a tactical alliance of the Socialist Party, Batkivscina Party, and Communist Party, temporarily took over the studio of the first channel of Ukrainian national television, halted the broadcasting of news programs, and broadcast an announcement that the studio had been occupied. Kiev authorities promptly restored order, drove out the politicians, resumed the work of the national TV, and launched a criminal case against the opposition forces for attempting to impede broadcasting.
Public protests continued, however, in the streets of Kiev, Kharkov, and other large cities. Inside the Supreme Rada, Batkivscina's Yulia Tymoshenko demanded to start impeachment proceedings against President Leonid Kuchma. The opposition also demanded the ouster of Interior Minister Yuri Smirnov and the immediate release of the detained participants in recent days' public rallies.
By the evening of Sept. 24, a group of parliamentarians including Tymoshenko and SP leader Alexander Moroz had invaded the office of President Kuchma's staff, but they were stopped by guards. The group refused to leave until President Kuchma agreed to personally meet with them and receive their demand for his resignation. Tymoshenko and others remained in a stairwell, and announced a hunger strike. Kuchma was forced to cave in and agree to a meeting.
The destabilization in Kiev was amplified by the U.S. State Department, which announced on Sept. 24 the suspension of all financial assistance to Ukraine, due to allegations about weapons deals between Ukraine and Iraq. The evidence of these supposed deals was reportedly provided to the U.S. by defector Mykola Melnichenko, an intelligence operative who was the source of the infamous tapes of conversations in Kuchma's office, which were used to implicate him in the murder of journalist Heorgi Gongadze two years ago.
According to wire reports from Washington, another one of Melnichenko's tapes allegedly has Kuchma authorizing the sale to Iraq, through Jordanian intermediaries, of a "Kolchuga" anti-aircraft warning system. In response to the State Department announcement, Kuchma issued a denial and invited international inspection of Ukrainian-Iraqi deals.
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