In this issue:

After Camp David Visit, Blair Intensifies Organizing for Iraq War

German President Warns of Clash of Civilizations Deriving from War on Iraq

Bush Administration Said To Be Furious with Germany

If Not Ancient Rome, Then Troy

German Foreign Minister: 'We Need New World Economic Order'

French Left Is Unravelling

Collapsing Economy, Budget Austerity Batter French PM's Poll Numbers

French Telecom on Verge of Exploding

Iraq War Would Cause World Economic Recession

FAZ Covers BueSo Electoral Campaign

From the Vol.1 No.28 issue of Electronic Intelligence Weekly

Western European News Digest

After Camp David Visit, Blair Intensifies Organizing for Iraq War

After his whirlwind (one-day) trip to the United States Sept. 7 to meet with President Bush at Camp David, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has intensified his efforts to organize a reluctant Britain to back a war on Iraq.

Thus, at the British Trades Union Congress (TUC) meeting in Blackpool Sept. 10, while repeating the litany about Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Blair promised the TUC that he would work with the United Nations, and hold a full parliamentary debate before taking any military action against Iraq.

The New York Times of Sept. 11 reported that because of these concessions, Blair's speech was received peacefully, despite earlier fears of disruptions, and left-wing union leaders expressed some satisfaction with it. This essentially mirrored the reactions President Bush got when he met with Congressional leaders, vowed to seek the approval of Congress, and then on Sept. 12 went before the UN on the Iraq issue.

Earlier, just before Blair departed for his trip to the U.S., British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, in a speech in Birmingham, ranted against any opposition to war on Iraq: "It would be wildly irresponsible to argue that patience with Iraq should be unlimited, or that military action should not be an option. No other country but Iraq poses the same unique threat to the integrity of international law..., and has the appetite both for developing and using weapons of mass destruction. Unless the international community faces up to the threat represented by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, we place at risk the lives of civilians in the region and beyond."

As to Blair's agreement to parliamentary debate, the British press generally opined that the opponents of the war had scored a significant victory when Blair announced that he would recall Parliament from its long summer recess for the debate. The tentative date for the debate is Sept. 24.

However, Blair has also said that, more or less simultaneously, he will release the long-awaited "dossier" on Iraqi WMD. So, depending on developments in the days immediately ahead, the debate might be configured as a "final discussion," before war begins.

German President Warns of Clash of Civilizations Deriving from War on Iraq

In a speech commemorating the attacks of last Sept. 11, German President Johannes Rau said in Berlin that violence is no good basis for human civilization in the 21st century, that politics and politicians are too much tempted by the aura of power, and that "he who forms a fist, cannot extend a hand for cooperation."

He said that the solidarity of the civilized nations in the struggle against terrorism is one thing; but the idea that there exists a choice between whether to proceed on the basis of international law, or simply to launch war, is another. Launching a war against Iraq is totally different from the pursuit of terrorists in the wake of last Sept. 11, Rau insisted. A war against Iraq could destabilize the entire region, and pull the world into a clash of religions and civilizations, he warned.

In a Berlin radio interview, Rau also said that German solidarity with the Americans should be more than just being friends with the business center at Wall Street, or the government in Washington—it is friendship among the peoples of Germany and the United States.

Meantime, the chairman of the Social Democrats' group in the Bundestag, the German Parliament, has announced that he sees the U.S. striving to become the "new Rome." In an interview Sept. 7 with the Muenchner Merkur daily, Ludwig Stiegler said, among other things, "The plans of the hawks in the U.S.A. are leading into a tragic disaster, which will have consequences for all of us." He also charged that U.S. Ambassador to Germany Daniel Coats is "trying to interfere in [German] domestic politics.... I would like to see what the Americans would say if the German Ambassador to Washington, D.C. would attack the Bush Administration in these terms." Coats reminds him of Soviet Ambassador to East Germany Pyotr Abrassimov, added Stiegler.

The United States "views itself as the new Rome. Bush is acting as if he were Princeps Caesar Augustus and Germany were Provincia Germania. This cannot be," Stiegler said. "I am a true friend of the Americans. They brought democracy to us, after the Second World War. But among friends, one must say now: No sir."

Bush Administration Said To Be Furious with Germany

According to the Wall Street Journal of Sept. 12, the Bush Administration is angry at German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, since Schroeder shifted from his previously announced "unlimited solidarity" with the U.S. (which he proclaimed after Sept. 11), to his current refusal to participate in any "military adventure," as he calls the looming U.S. war against Iraq.

"Bush Administration officials are furious," the Journal writes, especially since Schroeder shifted just as the U.S. "was trying to build support to take on Iraq. Since then, Canada has said it is skeptical about Mr. Bush's plans, and other countries have voiced doubts." The Journal also suggests Schroeder's opposition may jeopardize America's use of its bases in Germany.

If Not Ancient Rome, Then Troy

While one European figure compares the U.S. to the Roman Empire (see above), another, a leading Russian expert at Moscow's USA-Canada Institute, asserts that if the U.S. proceeds with an attack on Iraq, it will go the way of ancient Troy in the Trojan War, as described in Homer's epic poem The Iliad.

"It will be a very grave mistake for the Americans to attack Iraq," this person affirmed to EIR. "By the logic of the situation, they would have been much better off, attacking Iraq back in March, when they were still glowing from their announced 'triumph in Afghanistan,' when Russia was friendly, the Chinese hesitant, and the Europeans quiet. By contrast, the reality now is that Russia, China, Europe, the moderate Arabs, and Pakistan are all opposed. Russia is strengthening its relations with both Iraq and Iran. Only Britain and Israel are on the American side, for this war."

The source asserted: "This is very reminiscent of the fate of ancient Troy, as Homer described it. Troy was the predominant country of its time, it was the only superpower, it was the richest. The Greeks were just a bunch of ugly non-entities. But Troy squandered everything by the way it acted, and, if you read Homer, you know what happened to Troy. In such ways, is the future depicted in the past."

In the discussion, the Russian expert fully agreed that Israeli-linked operatives, most notably Paul Wolfowitz, have been central to pushing the U.S. in the direction of the war against Iraq, and away from Bush's earlier promise to back the creation of a Palestinian state.

German Foreign Minister: 'We Need New World Economic Order'

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer announced that "We need a New World Economic Order," in an interview with the German economic daily Handelsblatt on Sept. 9. However, by no means did he call for any fundamental shakeup, such as a New Bretton Woods, but for some softer, more palatable, form of globalization.

Fischer emphasized that the anti-terror fight must be bounded by three principles. First, it cannot be permitted "that we give up our own fundamental values and allow ourselves to be driven into a war of civilizations or cultures." Second, we should not give up our freedom, inasmuch as there are tendencies to eliminate "democratic dissidents" under cover of the fight against terrorism. Third, there is the threat of world economic repercussions, in particular the threat of regional protectionism. We need an open world economy. "And actually, we need a new world economic system," he said. The G-8 and the international financial institutions have to ensure that rich countries open their markets to products from the developing sector. and shift capital for investments in the poorer countries. There should not be "unbridled globalization." The fight against terror can only be won "within an economically just world."

French Left Is Unravelling

After the defeat last spring of Socialist Lionel Jospin, then France's Prime Minister, in the Presidential elections, the entire French left wing appears to be collapsing. Worst is Dominique Voynet, former head of the Green Party. She appeared at the Greens' recent cadre school only to announce that she will not renew her bid as party president. She was seen soon thereafter at a restaurant with former Social Affairs Minister Martine Aubry; the two were overheard considering the possibility of opening up a restaurant in Paris!

Others are also abandoning the Green ship. Another former president, Benhamias, has decided to become a sportscaster at Europe 1 radio, and two other leaders have announced their decision to quit the national leadership.

Equally badly off is the Communist Party, whose Presidential candidate got only 3.5%, a historic low for the PCF. The secretary general (#2 in the PCF) is making an impotent bid to take over the diminishing empty party. The Socialist Party is weathering things a bit better, but is divided between its "modernist" wing—Fabius and Dominique Strauss-Kahn—and its leftists.

Collapsing Economy, Budget Austerity Batter French PM's Poll Numbers

The collapsing economy and budget austerity are hammering French Prime Minister Jean Pierre Raffarin's poll numbers, with his approval rating dropping 9% in one month, according to an August poll by Le Figaro. Asisde from fear of unemployment and inflation, Frenchmen are enraged over the government's inability to live up to its electoral promises, which now endanger its Maastricht-dictated budget. The initial budget had been based on guesstimates of 3% growth, but Raffarin had to announce that growth would not top 2.7% in 2003, and experts believe that it will be closer to 2%. Also, the statistics are being revised downwards for 2002, to just over 1%.

This leaves the French government trying to square the circle between its electoral promises to lower taxes and increase spending in defense, security and justice, while reducing the budget deficit to zero, from the present 46 billion euros, by 2004, in order to comply with the Maastricht agreements that underlie the European Union.

Note that, contrary to Germany and Italy, which are trying to face up to the crisis by increasing spending in public infrastructure, in France, the government has created a commission to study what public infrastructure programs can be delayed in order to reduce spending. Some 5,000 civil service jobs will be lost mainly at the Education Ministry, but also in Finance and Equipment. Concerning taxes, Raffarin confirmed he will continue to reduce taxes in 2003. State spending in 2002 will only grow by 0.2%, beyond inflation (1.5%).

French Telecom on Verge of Exploding

The 51% state-owned French Telecom is on the verge of blowing up, and Vivendi Universal will soon be under investigation. France Telecom on Sept. 6 announced huge losses, in the order of 10 to 15 billion euros. The company is collapsing under a total debt of 70 billion euros (mainly in new generation licenses), of which it has to pay 5 billion next year. Where this money will come from, since the value of its stock has now dropped to 11.2 euros? Among the options discussed: the emission of 1 billion euros worth of new stock, to sell at 7 euros per, bringing in 7 billion euros (cutting by more than half the value of stock, thereby looting the small investor); a debt-for-stock exchange offered to the creditor banks which, at current prices, would be a real gift to the banking sector; a disguised state injection of 10 billion euros new capital which Brussels would oppose as unfair competition.

CEO Michel Bon is about to be removed, just like Jean Marie Messier of Vivendi Universal. Concerning Vivendi, two or three instructing magistrates will be named at the end of this month, to investigate possible fraudulent accounting.

Iraq War Would Cause World Economic Recession

War against Iraq would drag the world economy into recession, warns Hans-Joachim Hass, chief economist of the German federal association of industrial employers (BDI). Already, he says, the German economy is "just above zero growth" and no longer has reserves to deal with yet another backlash. The mood among German corporations and consumers has been quite bleak for months, and all hopes are relying on exports, in particular a recovery of U.S. demand. A war against Iraq would therefore finally kill the recovery process and instead lead to a new recession. However, he said, the chief victim of a war against Iraq would the U.S. economy.

Norbert Walter, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a radio interview that a war against Iraq would have massive consequences for the German and world economies, and would cause a new global recession.

Holger Wenzel, managing director of the German retail association HDE, expects tax increases in Germany as a consequence of an Iraq war, and warns this would further deteriorate consumption and economic activity.

Both the association of German wholesale and foreign traders (BGA) and the association of the German chemical industry (VCI) expect the oil price to shoot up and remain above $40/barrel, thereby causing another world recession for at least one or two years. The VCI report notes that even oil prices of $50/barrel could not be ruled out.

FAZ Covers BueSo Electoral Campaign

With its Sept. 14 issue, Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has ended its vow of silence against anything LaRouche-related, and reported on the BueSo's warning of the systemic world economic crisis. The BueSo, the German party led by Helga Zepp LaRouche, is running a number of candidates in Germany's Sept. 22 Federal elections, with the slate led by Zepp LaRouche herself.

The FAZ, Germany's major daily, wrote in its coverage, "Helga Zepp-LaRouche and her Buergerrechtsbewegung Solidaritaet (BueSo), which emerged from the right-wing extremist (sic!) European Labor Party, believe the Western democracies are in a 'systemic crisis.' The global financial system must declare itself bankrupt and be replaced by new regulations along the example of the Bretton Woods foreign exchange system. With the construction of a 'Eurasian Land-Bridge' reaching towards China, the party wants to create 8 million jobs in Germany."

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