In this issue:

There Is No Axis of Evil, Says Russian Deputy Foreign Minister

Putin Again Is the First To Call Bush

Putin Delivers Harsh Warning to Georgia on Eve of 9/11 Anniversary

'Chickenhawk' Bolton Says It's Okay To Hit Iraq Unilaterally

Russian TV Links U.S. Economic Woes to War Drive

Preview: Russian Analysts Compare U.S. Today to Collapsing Soviet Union

India And Russia Are Setting Up Forum on Energy Security

Russian Security Council Secretary Rushailo in Car Crash

Krasnoyarsk Gubernatorial Election Will Go To Run-off

From the Vol.1,No.28 issue of Electronic Intelligence Weekly
Russia and Central Asia News Digest

There Is No Axis of Evil, Says Russian Deputy Foreign Minister

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Vyacheslav Trubnikov, formerly Russian foreign intelligence chief, longtime associate of Yevgeni Primakov, and now Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, gave an interview to the paper Vremya Novostei reported in its Sept. 11 issue. He discussed in detail Russia's and other countries' relations to the three countries described by the U.S. as the "axis of evil," a construct that Trubnikov said "we do not accept, in principle." He also pointedly noted that there are "different factions" in the United States.

About Iraq: "Attempts to justify military action against Baghdad as a counterterror action are unconvincing, to say the least. To this day, there is no evidence of Iraqi complicity in the tragic events of Sept. 11 nor support for international terrorism. The military scenario for ... Iraq is absolutely unacceptable for Russia, and in this our position is consonant with the approach of the majority of nations."

About Iran: "It is an active and useful participant in the anti-terrorist coalition," citing Iran's important role in convening the Loya Jirga in Afghanistan, financing the Karzai Administration, and supporting the economic reconstruction of Afghanistan, which other countries promised to do, but didn't deliver on.

As for East Asia: "North Korea today has adopted a correct and active position in favor of normalizing the situation on the Korean Peninsula. This is met with understanding in the South. We should nurture these sprouts of mutual understanding, rather than shoving Pyongyang into the category of 'axis of evil.' "

Trubnikov went on to elaborate the economic aspects, citing especially Iran. He stressed that "many countries have broad prospects for economic cooperation there," in particular, "Europe is interested in developing the Iranian energy sector, and infrastructure." And Russia does not intend to abandon its niche in Iran: nuclear power development and conventional arms sales.

On the United States: "Most likely, a certain layer of the American leadership, which takes tough positions, really thinks they can help U.S. economic interests in this way. But what is being proposed, especially with regard to Iraq, can carve up the geopolitics of the region to such an extent, that U.S. economic positions not only will not be strengthened, but may crash.... The 'hawks' evidently don't understand this."

Trubnikov said that U.S. action against Iraq would set loose "the virus of flouting international law," which could infect other countries, particularly nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, with terrible consequences.

Putin Again Is the First To Call Bush

As soon as the clock struck midnight and the new day of Sept. 11, 2002, began, Russian President Vladimir Putin phoned U.S. President George W. Bush from Sochi, where he is on a working vacation, to express "sympathy and support for the American people." The Russian official announcement and media coverage stressed that, once again, Putin was the first to call and that Bush recalled this fact during their conversation— a reference to the phone call that averted a global showdown on Sept. 11, 2001, and has been excised from the chronicle in revisionist accounts of those events.

Putin Delivers Harsh Warning to Georgia on Eve of 9/11 Anniversary

Russia's President Vladimir Putin used the occasion of the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks in the U.S. to deliver a new, exceptionally harsh speech blaming Georgia's leadership for harboring terrorists.

"The Russian side had been warning Tbilisi about the terrorist nest in Pankisi Gorge. At first, even the fact that terrorists are concentrating there, was denied," said Putin. "Later, Georgia's leadership completely confirmed the fact that the Gorge is a terrorist haven. However, the results of the anti-terrorist operation, launched by Georgia's powers, are miserable, and none of the persons involved in terrorist operations on the territory of Russia, was extradited to the Russian side. In case Georgia continues to neglect UN Resolution No. 1373, Russia will have to use Article 51 of the UN Charter, as I have already instructed the leadership of the Defense Ministry" (emphasis added).

Putin's ultimatum was followed by a number of statements by Russian analysts on two major Russian TV stations, RTR and ORT. Vyacheslav Nikonov, chairman of Politika Foundation (Moscow), characterized Tbilisi's anti-terrorist effort as a "show" staged in order to justify U.S. financial support to Georgia's military and border services. Andrey Kortunov, president of INO Center, expressed the opinion that President Putin, delivering his statement, expected understanding and support from a number of European countries that are burdened with similar problems of separatist terrorism.

Asked about the future of Russian-Georgian relations in the current circumstances, Nikonov emphasized the sympathy of Russians towards Georgians— sympathy which, however, may be seriously impeded by the policy of Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, who "does not control most of his country's territory" and whose policy has "resulted in a profound political and economic crisis in Georgia." Nikonov asserted that if Shevardnadze stays in power, both the statehood of Georgia and Russian-Georgian relations are likely to deteriorate further.

On Sept. 12, RIA Novosti reported that Putin also sent his strongly worded warning to Georgia to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, the UN Security Council, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Putin stated in the warning that there has been "no constructive response" from Georgia to Russia's proposals for joint military action against Chechen guerrillas operating in the Pankisi Gorge. Reiterating that all countries should fulfill their obligations under UN Security Council resolutions, Putin said that this includes the obligation to prevent terrorists from acting from their territory, against other countries. In the absence of effective action by Georgia, Putin wrote, Russia reserves the right to take measures against the threat of terrorism.

Following the release of Putin's warning, the Russian Ambassador in Tbilisi was summoned to the Georgian Foreign Ministry, where First Deputy Foreign Minister Merab Antadze said, "The Russian President's accusations against Georgia are completely unfounded, and are evaluated in Tbilisi as a threat of the use force and possible aggression against Georgia."

President Shevardnadze also responded, with the comment that he hoped that "Russia will not embark on adventurist actions with respect to Georgia."

'Chickenhawk' Bolton Says It's Okay To Hit Iraq Unilaterally

On the eve of his Sept. 11 arrival in Moscow, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton, one of the "chickenhawks" in the cabal of Israeli agents in the Bush Administration, told BBC, "Whether the President decides to seek another resolution from the Security Council is a matter of political judgment, but it's certainly not a matter of international legal necessity. I think it's [U.S. action] sanctioned morally and legally." Bolton is reportedly in Moscow to "soften up" the resistance to Iraq war, but his warmonger rhetoric is only serving as further proof of that the chickenhawks are out for a full-scale "Clash of Civilizations" war.

Russian TV Links U.S. Economic Woes to War Drive

The crisis in the U.S. economy started long before the Sept. 11 attacks, Mikhail Leontyev of Russia's ORT TV correctly emphasized on the Odnako program. "It started with a severe economic recession, which needed adequate economic measures. However, the leadership of the United States prefered to find a scapegoat in global terrorism. In a certain way, the Sept. 11 tragedy was as necessary as air for the U.S. Administration."

ORT's Odnako program also quoted economist Andrey Kobyakov, co-editor of Russky Predprinimatel (Russian Entrepreneur) who last year interviewed Lyndon LaRouche in that journal's premier issue, on the huge U.S. budget deficit and gross falsification of incomes on the books of leading U.S. companies. Odnaka anchorman Leontyev then characterized the anti-terrorist propaganda launched in the United States and fuelled by the group of "hawks" (he singled out Cheney and Rumsfeld), as a drug used to poison the public opinion of the United States.

Echoing the aggressive approach of Vladimir Putin against Georgia's leadership, as well as the characterization of Georgia's anti-terrorist operation as a "cheap show," Leontyev emphasized that Russia has much more reason for intervention in Georgia than the United States has for a military operation in Iraq. This operation (against Iraq), regardless of its outcome, will contribute to destabilization in the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia, with disastrous consequences for Russia's national security, warned Leontyev.

Preview: Russian Analysts Compare U.S. Today to Collapsing Soviet Union

EIW will be reviewing in an upcoming issue, the insightful roundtable discussion reported in the Sept. 11 issue of the Russian intelligence-linked weekly Zavtra on the subject of the world situation since the irregular warfare attacks in the U.S. one year ago. The discussion linked the terrorism policies of the U.S. to the U.S. financial crisis, drawing some uncomfortable analogies to military adventures and economic crises that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Participants in the roundtable were Zavtra deputy editor Alexander Nagorny, strategic analyst General Leonid Ivashov, financial expert Mikhael Khazin, the well-known Russian television commentator Mikhail Leontyev (see item above) and former high-level KGB official Leonid Shebarshin. The discussion contained interesting elements on how relatively well-placed Russian observers are thinking about the present situation.

Some brief excerpts of General Ivashov's remarks appear here:

Ivashov: Sept 11 was an internal operation in the United States. It is necessary to recognize two forces operating in the U.S., "that have two different conceptions on using the military power of the U.S. to create a world empire." "The first ... wants the U.S. as a powerful nation. The second, the world financial elite ... considers that the U.S. must be subjugated to the world empire, whose time has come.... It is not an accident, that many Western commentators speak of Sept 11 as an attempted coup d'etat.... The force that gave the order [for the attacks], I believe, is connected with the world financial mafias, having representatives in the power structures of the USA, including the intelligence and special services. It is also no accident, that parallel with the investigation of the Sept. 11 attack, investigations are going on concerning the activities of a number of other structures, including the Mossad, within the U.S. intelligence community.... I believe the ongoing events in the U.S. will develop out of the conflict between these two forces.... What unites them, is the necessity to use the military power of the U.S. to crash down the boundaries of sovereign states.... Behind this are the various geopolitical theories of Huntington, Brzezinski, etc.... Evidently the U.S. feels under itself under a tight time limit for securing control over world resources and political power in most countries...."

Ivashov adds, "Thus, the U.S. is now at a transition point. She has come to the climax of her military-power adventures for grabbing power over the planet. I think this peak will be crossed in one and one-half to two years, after which the USA will retreat from its positions as a result of economic problems. I think the attack on Iraq will occur. I think Iran will be drawn into the confrontation, and it should not be excluded, that Israel will participate.... After that, U.S. policy will disintegrate under the influence of the economic and social-political collapse inside the U.S. One has the feeling, that the financial oligarchy in power on this planet are not interested in maintaining the U.S. population at its present living standard...."

India And Russia Are Setting Up Forum on Energy Security

Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal, who is in Moscow, told newsmen on Sept. 7 that India and Russia are setting up a forum on energy security which will be signed when President Putin visits India later this year.

Russia, according to New Delhi, is emerging as a major player in the energy sector in the region and India is a major consumer of energy. Russia has provided India with two 1,000-MW nuclear reactors, which are now being installed.

Sibal added that Russia and India are planning to sign agreements in many areas during Putin's visit. "Besides a political declaration reflecting the importance of Indo-Russia ties, some economic agreements are also being finalized since focus is now shifting on economy."

Russian Security Council Secretary Rushailo in Car Crash

On Sept. 5, Russian Security Council secretary (and former Minister of Internal Affairs) Vladimir Rushailo was injured in a car crash that killed five people, in Kamchatka in Russia's Far East. He sustained a concussion and broken ribs, injuries described in reports as "minor," but is being flown to Moscow for treatment. Local police declared the crash an accident, triggered when the driver of a carload of men, on their way home from fishing, panicked at the sight of the motorcade, hit the accelerator instead of the brakes, and plowed into the official cars at about 50 mph. But the reports indicate Rushailo was nearly killed. FSB (federal security) officers in cars accompanying him did die.

Meanwhile in Novgorod, also on Sept. 5, Mayor Alexander Korsunov was killed in a car crash. There, a criminal case against the driver of the other car in the collision has been opened, for reckless driving.

The two crashes were among the latest incidents in a string of kidnappings, violent attacks, and so-called accidents that have involved top business and political leaders in Russia.

On Sept. 12, D. Sergei Kukura, the First Vice President and chief financial officer of the major Russian oil company LUKoil, was kidnapped on the way to work. According to a detailed press release from the company, his car was ambushed by masked men in combat fatigues with automatic weapons, who used an official car with Ministry of Internal Affairs plates to fool Kukura's driver and bodyguard. The latter were drugged, awakening only hours later. The incident occurred in a forested area on the way into Moscow from the executive's dacha.

LUKoil went to the media with the importance of the kidnapping, stressing in their statement that Kukura was a person with "access to state secrets" concerning the oil industry. Police are saying they think it's a (Colombia-style) kidnapping for ransom, but First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir Vasilyev has been put in charge of the case.

Other recent incidents reported in Russia include: the death of State Duma Deputy Vladimir Semenkov (Unity), also Sept. 5, in a car crash near Achinsk, Krasnoyarsk Territory; the Sept. 9 murder of Nikolai Glubokov, head of the Passenger Services Directorate of the Ministry of Railways, stabbed during an apparent burglary (but he is the second Moscow rail official to die in a month, the deputy head of the Moscow Railway Sergei Paristyi having been shot dead Aug. 20); and a Sept. 11 nighttime bomb explosion at an office of the pro-Putin youth movement, Walking Together.

Krasnoyarsk Gubernatorial Election Will Go To Run-off

The election for a replacement for the late Alexander Lebed as Governor of Krasnoyarsk Territory in Siberia, held Sept. 9, resulted in the need for a run-off between Speaker Alexander Uss of the territorial assembly (27.67%) and Alexander Khloponin (25.16%), governor of the Taimyr area. Economist Sergei Glazyev, the National Patriotic Union candidate, ran a strong third with 21.45%.

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