Russia and Central Asia News Digest
Russian Parliamentarian Warns U.S. Attack On Iraq Could Be Soon
In interviews yesterday Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the International Affairs Committee of Russia's Federation Council (upper house of Parliament), said he believed the United States might launch a military action against Iraq on Sept. 11. According to RIA-Novosti, Margelov said that timing the attack on this anniversary would create pressure for the allies of the U.S. to back it.
In his interview to Itar-TASS, Margelov stressed the non-support of such an attack, on the part of European Union countries and the Arab world, and the lack of any "national consensus" on it inside the United States. He said that Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri will make a working visit to Moscow in early September, and that Russia will continue to push for solving Iraq-related problems through dialogue under the aegis of the United Nations Security Council.
Margelov's statement was prominently featured and discussed on Russian TV broadcasts. Talking head Vyacheslav Nikonov (Molotov's grandson) of the Politika Foundation, for example, opined on an RTR program that the attack will happen sooner or later, though not as soon as Sept. 11.
Russian-Georgian Accusations Fly
Accusations about the Aug. 23 high-altitude bombing of Pankisi Gorge in the Republic of Georgia, which killed two and injured seven civilians, have been flying all week between Moscow and Tbilisi, along with threats of diplomatic and/or military escalation. As reported in a White House news conference transcript of Aug. 25, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer condemned Russia for these air raids, saying the U.S. "deplores the violation of Georgia's sovereignty." Warhawk Senator John McCain had just visited Tbilisi. In combination with developments around Iraq, the U.S. criticism of Russia on this countPankisi Gorge being a base for Chechen guerrillas, as well as other Afghansi, who are supposed to be targets of the "anti-terrorist coalition"spawned a rush of articles in the U.S. and international press, about a breakdown-in-process of the post-Sept. 11 U.S.-Russia relationship.
Here are the main developments around Georgia this week, including an Israeli angle, brought out for the first time:
Aug. 23: Georgian officials report the bombing, which took place at 5:00 a.m. in an area where a Georgian TV station had said the Chechen band of Ruslan Gelayev was operating (a report denied by Georgia's National Security Council secretary). Georgia's Foreign Ministry says that two group squadrons of Russian planes crossed into Georgian air space. The Russian Air Forces states no orders for such operations had been given.
Aug. 23: OSCE observers announce that they, too, detected unmarked aircraft flying at a high altitude, which bombed Georgian territory for 40 minutes that morning. Fleischer issues his statement of "deep concern" over "credible" reports of a Russian raid. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov denies the involvement of Russian planes in such a bombing. The Georgian Foreign Ministry officially protests to the Russian Ambassador, while Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili blames "aggressive" factions within Russia.
Aug. 24: The Russian Foreign Ministry demands decisive action by Georgia to "block, disarm, and extradite terrorists" operating in Pankisi, rather than push them into Russia, and reiterates Russia's proposal to do it jointly. The Georgian Parliament's Speaker Nino Burdjanadze calls to shoot down any planes that violate Georgian air space, but Defense Minister Tevzadze says Georgia lacks weapons to down planes from 8,000 meters.
Aug. 24: Eight Russian border guards are found shot dead from close range, on the Georgia-Ingushetia (Russia) border. Though two fellow soldiers are later charged with their murder, the incident is folded into news reports for several days.
Aug. 25: The Georgian Foreign Ministry calls the Russian note "inadequate." Georgian National Security officials announce their own operation in Pankisi Gorge, with 1,000 Interior and National Security troops.
Aug. 27: Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze visits Pankisi Gorge to review these operations.
Aug. 27: The Russian Foreign Ministry says it is studying a Georgian proposal to jointly investigate the Aug. 23 raid. Tbilisi, however, calls for an OSCE investigation instead.
Aug. 28: Addressing special forces troops in eastern Siberia, Russian President Putin says that without Russia's active involvement, Georgia "will just move terrorists from one corner to another."
Aug. 28: The Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes a big article on the Aug. 23 incident, asserting that Russian planes based in the area lack the equipment for bombing in the dark, but that the Georgian Air Force has one Su-25 fighter-bomber, which according to Russian military sources was retrofitted by the Israeli company Elbit Maarachot with radio-navigation equipment for night raids. (Elbit's delivery of an Su-25M to Georgia was also reported by Jane's Defence Weekly in April 2001.) Rossiyskaya Gazeta quotes an "informed Defense Ministry source," who claims the Georgian Air Force carried out the raid on orders from the highest political authorities.
Aug. 29: Speaking at a ceremony for the next phase of the U.S. "Train and Equip" program for the Georgian military, Shevardnadze again says Georgia will not agree to a joint operation with Russia in Pankisi. "We have to take care of our own problems by ourselves," he said. At the same event, Defense Minister Tevzadze objected to the Russian proposals: "Putin is not offering help, he's offering to send more Russian soldiers to Georgia, and we have enough of them already."
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