In this issue:

Putin and Schroeder Confer On Flood Disaster

Donald Rumsfeld Denounces Russia

Russia Steps Up Warnings Against U.S. Action in Iraq

Russian Paper Plays Up Signs of Pending U.S. Attack on Iraq

Russian Diplomacy Challenges 'Axis of Evil' Notion

Putin Meets Kim Jong-il in Vladivostok

Russian Prime Minister Talks Economics in China

Russia-Kuwait Agreement on Weapons and Oil

Fall-Out from Deadly Military Helicopter Crash

What Is John McCain Doing in the Caucasus?

Rash of Gangland Killings, Explosions, Bomb Threats Hits Russia

From the Vol.1,No.25 issue of Electronic Intelligence Weekly
Russia and Eurasia News Digest

Putin and Schroeder Confer On Flood Disaster

Russian TV channels reported Aug. 20 that President Vladimir Putin had a phone talk with Germany's Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to discuss the consequences of the unprecedented floods in Germany and in a number of regions of Russia (Krasnodar Territory and North Ossetia). On the same day, several convoys of Russian Civil Defense Ministry trucks, loaded with medical goods and construction materials, started from Noginsk, Moscow Region, on their way to Brandenburg, Germany. In a meeting with the consuls of Germany, Austria, Poland, and the Czech Republic, St. Petersburg Governor Vladimir Yakovlev offered to send the skilled restoration specialists from the State Hermitage Museum, to help in damaged historic districts in the European cities.

Coverage in the Russian print media emphasized the tremendous losses to the German and other European economies from these floods.

Donald Rumsfeld Denounces Russia

Visiting Fort Hood Aug. 22, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made a show of warning Russia against upgrading its relations not only with Iraq, but with an array of other countries. Referring to the $40-billion five-year Russian-Iraqi cooperation agreement, reported in the Washington Post and Russian newspapers a few days ago and also heralded at a press conference by the Iraqi Ambassador in Moscow, Rumsfeld said that closer ties with Iraq would give Russia the reputation of "a friend of terrorists," and deter businessmen from all over the world from investing in the Russian economy. He continued his tirade, "To the extent that Russia decides it wants to parade its relationships with countries like Iraq and Libya and Syria and Cuba and North Korea, it sends a signal out across the globe that is what Russia thinks is a good thing to do, to deal with terrorist states, to have them as their relationship developers.... It's almost like self-executing."

Russia Steps Up Warnings Against U.S. Action in Iraq

On Aug. 22, as U.S. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld chastised Russia for developing relations with Iraq and a half-dozen other countries, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Gen. Nikolai Trubnikov said that a U.S. military action against Iraq would be "unacceptable." He added that the pending new $40-billion Iraq-Russia cooperation package constitutes no threat whatsoever to U.S. interests. Trubnikov has been the counterpart to the State Department's Richard Armitage in "anti-terror coalition" talks since Sept. 11, as well as on a specific task force for Afghanistan and Central Asia.

On Friday, Aug. 23, Russian Defense Ministry press secretary Nikolai Deryabin told Strana.ru that the next session of the Russian-American consultative group on strategic security will be devoted to the consequences of a possible U.S. action against Iraq. Deryabin said that Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov (currently touring Russia's Far East with President Putin) has announced that he and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov intend to visit Washington in September under the bilateral agreement on regular defense and foreign affairs consultations. Sergei Ivanov also, according to the spokesman, said that any U.S. evidence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction should be presented to the international community, so that it can be checked via international inspectors. He reiterated that Russian-Iraqi military cooperation, in particular, was being carried out in strict accord with UN guidelines, including sanctions.

Russian Paper Plays Up Signs of Pending U.S. Attack on Iraq

The Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta of Aug. 19 listed multiple signs which it says point to a U.S. attack on Iraq in the near future. The article evidently referred to information from Russian military intelligence circles.

Among the indications cited in the article, were:

*The announcement of an increase in the U.S. strategic oil reserve from 580 to 700 million barrels;

*"Signs of an incipient regrouping of U.S. forces and materiel in the theater of coming military operations," including the commissioning of large transport ships;

*Increasing activity at all U.S. air bases in the zone of the projected conflict, and an increase in the number of fighters, strategic reconnaissance aircraft, and aircraft with long-range radar detection and battle management capability, as well as the transfer of strategic bombers from the continental U.S.A. to forward bases in range of the conflict area;

*Steadily increasing concentration of naval vessels in the region, including ships armed with cruise missiles and landing ships.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta says that U.S. planners have essentially abandoned the effort to assemble a coalition for the attack; the U.S. will move alone or with Great Britain. There are two probable scenarios: a September attack, with emphasis on intensive aerial bombardment; or a January 2003 variant with a larger land component. However, a ground operation with commitment of large numbers of U.S. forces is considered unlikely.

Russian Diplomacy Challenges 'Axis of Evil' Notion

"Russia is now making a concerted diplomatic effort, to improve relations with all the three 'Axis of Evil' countries denounced by George W. Bush," a leading Russian foreign policy expert told EIR Aug. 21.

"You have been noticing the improving relations with both Iran and Iraq, even if the $40-billion Russia-Iraq deal that has been announced, will only actually be signed in September," he said. "Beyond this, our President will be travelling to Vladivostok, in the Far East, tomorrow, to meet North Korea's Kim Jong-il. What is crucial to understand about this is the railway situation. I can assure you, we will now really start to build the connections linking the Trans-Korean and Trans-Siberian railways. This will create a very interesting new development, for the Euro-Asian Land-Bridge. The South Koreans and Japanese are both interested in this, and it will go ahead, irrespective of whatever political changes there might be in South Korea or elsewhere."

Putin Meets Kim Jong-il in Vladivostok

The three-hour meeting between Russia's President and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on Aug. 3 (see also EIW ASIA DIGEST) focussed on the Eurasian Land-Bridge, according to preliminary reports. Although neither reported at any length to the press following their meeting, President Putin said they discussed economic development, and in particular the rail link between South Korea and the Trans-Siberian Railway through North Korea. The international impact of Kim's trip was such, that even the New York Times carried a map of the Land-Bridge route, connecting South Korea with St. Petersburg by rail.

Putin's representative for the Far East Federal District, Konstantin Pulikovsky, who was instrumental in organizing the trip, called it an opportunity for Kim Jong-il to investigate economic reform and development potentials. Kim visited a pharmaceuticals company and a cable-producing plant, on a four-day tour Russia's Far East.

Putin himself is beginning a week-long tour of Siberia and the Far East. From Vladivostok, he travels to Chita for a meeting with Siberian Military District commanders, then will chair a State Council meeting in Kemerovo, the central Siberian mining district, and arrive Aug. 30 in Kazan, Tatarstan.

Russian Prime Minister Talks Economics in China

Russian Prime Minister Kasyanov met Aug. 21 in Shanghai with his Chinese counterpart, Zhu Rongji. He then announced that each Prime Minister will take personal charge of the most important Chinese-Russian economic projects, including the "strategic oil pipeline" from Siberia to China. When operational, that pipeline will carry between 20 and 30 million tons of oil from Russia to China each year.

Interviewed for the Aug. 20 People's Daily on the eve of his trip, Kasyanov said that the two countries' bilateral trade would exceed last year's record level of $10.7 billion, but that Russian anticipates tripling trade to the level of $35 billion per year by 2006. Arms sales will continue to be the biggest component, but the share of energy cooperation in bilateral trade will rise dramatically.

On Aug. 22, Kasyanov and Zhu signed a joint communiqué on their talks, which were the Seventh Regular Meeting of the two countries' Prime Ministers. Besides cooperation in the areas of the economy, trade, science and technology, they addressed international strategic issues, offering this formulation on "the international anti-terrorist struggle" since Sept. 11: "The two Prime Ministers pointed out that terrorism poses a common threat to the whole international community, stressing that anti-terrorist strikes should be based on international law, observe the United Nations Charter, and closer international cooperation. No double standards should be adopted, nor should terrorism be linked with specific ethnic groups or religions. The United Nations and its Security Council should play a core role in international anti-terrorist operations." They emphasized the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in which Russia shares membership with Central Asian nations.

Russia-Kuwait Agreement on Weapons and Oil

A Moscow meeting between representatives of Russia and Kuwait dealt with proposals to boost Russian arms sales to that oil-rich Gulf Emirate and jointly develop new oil fields there, Voice of Russia reported in English on Aug. 19. The Russian side was led by Energy Minister Igor Yusufov, and the Kuwaiti side by Sheikh Akhmed Fahd al-Ahmed as-Sabah.

Fall-Out from Deadly Military Helicopter Crash

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov travelled to Chechnya Aug. 20, visiting the scene of an Mi-26 military transport helicopter crash the day before, in which 115 Russian troops died. It was the largest number of Russian casualties in a single incident, during the current fighting in Chechnya.

Russian military prosecutor Sergei Fridinsky confirmed Aug. 22 that part of a Strela anti-aircraft missile launcher was found in the vicinity, indicating that this sophisticated weaponry was in the hands of the Chechen guerrillas. At the same time, the Kremlin publicly chastized the military for overloading the helicopter, with 147 people carried in a machine built to seat 80 troops. Ivanov suspended Gen. Col. Vitali Pavlov, Commander of Army Air Forces in Chechnya. President Putin allowed his own dressing-down of Ivanov to be shown on national television.

What Is John McCain Doing in the Caucasus?

Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported the arrival of U.S. Senators John McCain (R-Ariz) and Fred Thompson (R-Tenn) in Tbilisi, Georgia the week of Aug. 19. McCain declared to journalists that he wanted to personally affirm the close relations between the United States and Georgia, as well as to "help out" in the strained situation between Georgia and Russia. Also, he said he wanted to see for himself the fruits of the $64-million Pentagon program for training and organizing anti-terrorist units in the Georgian Army.

The U.S., declared McCain, is in a "real war" with terrorism and "attaches special importance" to cooperation with Georgia in that area. Emerging from a meeting with Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, McCain told journalists he "could not exclude" the presence of bin Laden-connected terrorists, as well as Chechen separatists, in the Pankisi Gorge. On the second day of their visit, McCain and Thompson were scheduled to visit the U.S.-Georgian military training center "Yaglushka" together with the Deputy Commander of NATO forces in Europe, General Dieter Stockmann, and then to fly to the Pankisi Gorge.

McCain's visit came at a point of high tension between Georgia and Russia, which has charged that Chechen rebels are staging operations from Pankisi Gorge with impunity. The previous week saw numerous reports and rumors of a Georgian military buildup in that area, adjacent to the Chechnya district of Russia. On Aug. 23, Georgia again accused Russia of conducting an air raid in Pankisi Gorge, while Moscow denied any violation of Georgian air space. Two people were reported killed. (It is not known if McCain recreated Zbigniew Brzezinski's stunt in Afghanistan two decades ago, by staging a photo-op of himself manning an anti-aircraft gun pointing at the Russians.)

Rash of Gangland Killings, Explosions, Bomb Threats Hits Russia

Moscow, the night of Aug. 20-21: An explosion in a Moscow apartment building left at least eight people dead, including three children, and six more injured. Amid initial fears that it was a terror attack from Chechen networks, Federal Security Service (FSB) chief Nikolai Patrushev went to the scene to investigate. On Aug. 22, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Alexander Chekalin announced that investigators were certain that the explosion was caused by leaking natural gas, but Russian media continued to play up the "popular belief" that it was a bomb.

Moscow, Aug. 22: A man was detained at the famous Lubyanka, FSB (formerly KGB) headquarters in Moscow. He claimed to have a ton and a half of explosives in the truck he was driving. Security officers managed to make him surrender what appeared to be an automatic weapon, and then seized him. Russian media continued reports throughout the day, on whether or not the vehicle might still explode.

Grozny, Aug. 22: In the capital of Chechnya, a motorcade carrying members of the official commission to investigate the Aug. 19 Mi-26 helicopter crash came under attack, from an explosive device that was detonated on its route. There were no injuries.

Moscow, Aug. 20: Member of Parliament and deputy chairman of the Liberal Russia Party Vladimir Golovlyov was shot to death outside his home in Moscow. Witnesses saw two gunmen. The Liberal Russia Party was co-founded by exiled tycoon Boris Berezovsky last year. Before joining it, Golovlyov was part of the Union of Right Forces, whose co-chairman Irina Khakamada quickly termed the killing "criminal, not political." Golovlyov was under investigation for corruption connected to his involvement in privatizations in Chelyabinsk, a region in the Urals, in the early 1990s; on Aug. 22, that case was closed..

Other recent publicized assassinations in Russia include the deaths of Moscow Railway deputy director Sergei Paristy (Aug. 20), Yakov Tilipman of the "Russian America" company that distributes Kremlyovskaya vodka (Aug. 8), and Vice Governor Vladimir Prokhorov of Smolensk Province (Aug. 7). An informed Moscow source says that only one out of five contract killings committed in the city, is covered by the mass media. Most of them are related to business competition in real estate, construction, banking, entertainment and billboard advertising. The population grows accustomed to regular reports about death around them.

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