|Southwest Asia News Digest
Arabic-Language Website Posts LaRouche Warning of World War III
The Arabic-language LaRouche Movement has translated and posted a pamphlet on its website, www.nysol.se/arabic, which includes Lyndon LaRouche's "Who Is Behind World War III, a mass leaflet by German BüSo leader, Helga Zepp-LaRouche, and an article by EIR authors on Synarchism.
Already, the "Know Your Enemy" statement by LaRouche, "Israel at the Gates of Moscow," by Jeffrey Steinberg, and other major coverage of Southwest Asia is posted on the website.
Growing Resistance in U.S. Congress to Lebanon War
In its Aug. 11 article on neo-con pressure on Israel to expand the war, Forward reports that some Congressional Republicans are taking an opposite view. They quote Sen. Chuck Hagel's (R-Neb) statement that military action alone will not destroy Hezbollah or Hamas, and note that, "This week, 10 of the 12 Senators who did not sign a bipartisan letter calling on the European Union to add Hezbollah to its list of terrorist organizations were Republicans." They included, in addition to Hagel, Richard Lugar (R-Ind) and John Warner (R-Va). An item from the Middle East Media Center (MEMC) says that Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa) and Senators Chris Van Hollen (D-Md), Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich), and Patrick Leahy (D-Vt) have called for a ceasefire, and notes that Hagel has called on President Bush to call for an immediate ceasefire.
Judge Denies Motions To Dismiss in AIPAC Spy Case
The trial judge denied the motions to dismiss their espionage case made by the "AIPAC 2," Steven Rosen and Keith Weissman. The court rejected Aug. 10 their constitutional challenges to the espionage conspiracy statute, which claimed that it is unconstitutionally vague, and abridges their own and others' First Amendment rights. Also rejected was their assertion that the statute only concerns documents or maps, not oral conversations. Rosen's separate motion, that the charge of aiding and abetting illegal transmission of national defense information was legally insufficient, was also rejected.
Israel Faces Strategic Defeat in Lebanon
"Israel is facing a strategic defeat in Lebanon and very few people are picking up on the significance of this," a senior U.S. military intelligence specialist told EIR on Monday, Aug. 7. The source said that if Israel fails to strategically defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon, this will constitute the greatest military defeat Israel has ever suffered, with major political consequences for some time to come. The source had indicated three weeks ago that the logic of the Israeli military operations was that they would launch a full-scale ground invasion. Now, he warned, the moment for that to happen has passed. Hezbollah has demonstrated a sophisticated capability for using anti-tank weapons. Israel, so far, is conducting in-and-out raids, but is failing to drive Hezbollah out of any villages in the south of Lebanon. Furthermore, if Israel does launch a full-scale ground invasion of Lebanon, it will likely get bogged down and face a similar quagmire to that in which the U.S. is stuck in Iraq.
On the other hand, the source agreed that the only alternative to chaos and disaster is for the U.S. to negotiate in good faith with Iran and Syria. President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, especially after their pathetic press conference performance in Crawford Aug. 7, are incapable of such diplomacy. Even more ominous, the source warned that the White House is not listening to the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any other professional military advisors. The JCS has concluded that there is no military option against Iran, but the source warned that the White House could simply order the Chiefs to prepare operational plans and not seek any military counsel before ordering action. "The Wayne Downing Plan" for pushing regime change in Iran, via Special Forces operations, is still kicking around, he warned.
Israelis Admit: Hezbollah a Formidable Foe
Israeli soldiers and commanders admit that Hezbollah is a formidable foe, because it is highly-skilled, well-equipped, and moves undetected among the population with efficient communication and logistics. The Aug. 7 New York Times quoted one Israeli soldier who, after returning from Lebanon, reported that "all of us were kind of surprised.... [Hezbollah] is nothing like Hamas or the Palestinians." Hezbollah has carefully profiled the Israeli military, studied its flaws, and skillfully exploited those weaknesses to its own advantage. One former UNIFIL official in Lebanon pointed to the success of Hezbollah's strategy of drawing Israeli ground troops further into Lebanon, onto "well-prepared battlefields," forcing them to extend their supply lines. A similar profile of Hezbollah's capability is published in the Aug. 7 edition of Newsweek magazine.
Nasrallah Backs Seven-Point Plan; Deployment of Army
In a televised address Aug. 9, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah stressed the importance of Lebanese national unity, and he voiced his support for the Siniora government's seven-point plan for resolving the current crisis.
Nasrallah also spoke at length about the government's intention to send 15,000 troops into the South. This will help Lebanon, he said, and will help the friends of Lebanon to apply pressure toward changing the draft resolution which has been discussed in the UN Security Council.
Nasrallah acknowledged that in the past, Hezbollah had objected to having the Lebanese Army at the borders, because this would have been to place it "in the mouth of the dragon," because of Israeli aggression; lacking tanks or military vehicles or an air force and air cover, it could have been destroyed within days. But in the present situation, with the government having decided that the purpose is to guard Lebanon, not to protect the enemy, this is an honorable solution, which Hezbollah accepts.
Having the Army deployed to preserve Lebanon's sovereignty and independence is the best way to proceed, rather than having an international force, Nasrallah declared.
Israel Does Not Know How To Fight This War
"There has never been a war like this.... We don't know how to fight it, at least not yet," wrote Ha'aretz correspondent Bradley Burston Aug. 7. He said that the world is watching because this "is the next great battle of World War III. And, as in Iraq, the war is not going well for the West...."
He says that the Olmert government is inexperienced, and has made "outlandish, grandiose, and boastful claims" about the war against Hezbollah, but has failed.
"After years of MI warnings of Hezbollah's missile arsenal and vaguely comforting news items about the mystery-shrouded Nautilus Katyusha-killer, we now know that we knew next to nothing," Burston admitted, and worse, the Israeli behavior has won support for Hezbollah. Even the New York Times last week compared Hezbollah to the civil rights movement of the 1960s.
"We've gone after infrastructure, and in so doing, caused immeasurable suffering to as many as a million Lebanese. A thousand of them dead ... with thousands of thousands of soldiers already in Lebanon, seven brigades and counting, after 4,600 IAF bombing runs, 150 of them Sunday night alone, 80 to 90 percent of Hezbollah's 2,500 fighters are alive and shooting. They are still capable of firing 200 rockets a day into Israel....
"We are losing the war, in part, because our actions have only gained sympathy for Hezbollah.
"Polls are now showing that nearly 90 percent of Lebanese, including many who had serious doubts about Hezbollah in the past, now support the organization's war with Israel...."
Israel had better come up with a "smarter strategy" that includes diplomacy, and learnas Hezbollah understandsthat the most important issue is to survive. If the Israelis continue the strategy of "More of the same ... erasing Hezbollah's villages," that survival might not happen, Burston concluded.